natty

Things are unsteady be greedy with entries take profits within 5 cents adjust entry lower

so i bought at 48 sold at 51 that is 300 bucks now i move to the low at .46 in natty

if we get down to 3.30 or so we can think about position trading but for now 3-5 at a scalp in and out traders market 3.6 is the pivot on runs if you catch one sell there for sure if it breaks u get back in

natty is the story and where the money is for the moment

Every super smart technician said to sell this I alone said to buy

Nattty hope you rode with me

Natty is the place to make money right now as Oil is waiting for the next catalyst

oil and Gas

November oil
bullish bias

buy 71.5



Sell 73.5



GAs bullish bias



oct buy


3.4




Sell
3.8

morning Pricing

After a long and painful repair the site appears to be working again and we can now start to employ all the ideas we had for it initially we will be adding functionality as we go joblessness housing starts to philly fed index all were again strong leading to some indecision and profit taking amidst the back line numbers which continue to cause concern despite all the positive macro data Natty bounced off the 3.44 to 3.5x overnight i buy natty on pullbacks from now until spring

overnight

Im still bullish on the overall market it just needed a breather the news was again encouraging


here is a idea of natural gas trends
like a train once it gets moving
gas made Oil look boring and we go where the volatility is











In today's trade I employed an average down style buying at 3.62 selling at 3.66
moving entry down 3.59 panicking out 3.61 buy 3.56 sell 3.62
buy 3.48 and that's where it stopped working as it broke down to 3.44 but bounced
still long the contract here
The month is almost over the fear now of course is that they are running out of storage
I touched on that last week even though it ran hard on almost an identical large build but 10 better than expected this time after the exuberant run to 3.87 right through the top of the bear channel(my esignal charts are better soon I will be exporting them)_and back down hard
Currently 3.51 and I am trying o off the long at 3.54.

NATTY AGAIN

Take a look at a couple different charts the stochastic is working here
since I panic'd out of 3.595 buy at 3.615 I am willing to buy next dip on the 3.56 entry line where it bounced as long as I can get out I am to buy again

the pivot has been violated in natty

Lookws like we get the pullback after all th 3.62 pvot is violated next it is bouncing off 3.55
but im moving my next entry to the s1 3.44

oil and natty

Oil is a slow mover thus far the action is in natty


We are getting bounces near the support line 3.62
it overshot this once to 3.595 just as it overshot resistance at 3.82 to .87

The inventory story was better than expected but the situation is still too much gas
keeping the pressure on
It is cold up here in the northeast the gas burners are starting to get turned back up

Nice trades if you are buyin near the low but remember to take your profit that is the second part of the trade that allows you to do it again

Natty

I aplogize im writing quickly things are moving faster than that
I am not a shorter of gas but the bear channel we are against the top it actually went through
for a second bu a close above it spells break out you should trade buy dips sell for 10-15 cents
buy next dip
3.62 is support /3.82 channel top im buying dips

natty

the back test of the trend is 3.82 break and close above we are through 4 and beyond

it seems like the range is set if you are long it is a place to consider a sale

natty

64 was better than expected if you bought the dip good for you

take profits near 4

Natty and Oil

All the technicians are texting and IM'ing how Natty is a sale and 3.7 as we mentioned is the key support level technicals are not always right rember the head and shoulders in the S+P
trade the inventory


I told you to buy dips inOIL

oil

technically 72.4 is the bullish neckline and a close above it on the four hour chart is supposed to clear the way to 76 area and above
I think the dollar will have something to say about that as a bounce in the greenback
is bearish concern for Oil. We ranged overnight for all the scalpers out there
joblessness is a opaque number and housing starts in line
This is not being received well by the futures and perhaps the recent run up has given buyers pause here I have to buy dips again
if the dollar screams i will repost because that will alter today's calculations
moving to the november contract 72.4 is trend line support
buy 71.75 november

i will post when close to reaffirm email me if you have any questions

We stay in October in GAS
the inventory EIA should tell the story 10:30 ish
below 3.7 should kick start the selling dips should be bought unless inventory blows out expectations I will again post and let you now my take o the report

last night went as planned with a run up and a trip back after the news disseminates i will post
pricing jobless numbers and housing

Today's Guidance

After the EIa i gave you my bias slightly bullish and gave you a baseline of 70.5 to buy

and told you to buy dips it ot down to 70.7 and then started to gain momentum

the cobo of the EIA the market the industrial prod number prom

Another very strong bag of timely advice day in and day out If im wrong every once in a while

I hope you guys forgive me because I give you the right picture most if the time

Now we have momentum and believers everywhere I think we are gonna retest the highs now

We have to take each days news into account but we have turned the corner and I think we are gonna power up another day---We have housing starts which I think are going to be strong

and jobless claims which are still the laggerd but get a good number by surprise and we just might explode

Natty has the EIA gas and you have to ask yourself what would use gas the answer cold weather

and it looks like nationwide there was a temp0 drop with all the good vibes from GOldman

and the supercontango I think 4 by tomorrow natty runs in lines take a look at a chart

over the past two years it has many many runs straight down and up currently we are on a b line from 2.4 to 3.7 WOW!

Changing my overnight biias to bullish as sympathy rallies should lift crude through the overnight untilo the definitive news either adds fuel tomorrow or changes the tone

ECO-

I was right so right about Natural gas look back out the posts since Friday
This turned and missed this last trip up by allowing other's bearishness to cloud my analysis.
What to do now? Well the inventories are out and we have to play them if they are good take the offer if they are bad hit the bid this will move 30 cents in either direction when they break
most likely. My morning line buy at 3.31 was the stone cold bottom just look back if you question it
I want to know who else on the planet called it that close. No one but yours truly.
The supercontange from Oct to Nov is on the clock so look for a trip past 4 like I have ben saying and now at 3.7 not being disputed or back to 3.3

We have news and lots of it coming again tomorrow so pay attention profit taking should occur
on the overnight sell the pops we are not ready to fully commit

JPY	BoJ Interest Rate Decision		0.10%	0.10%
23:50	JPY	BSI Manufacturing index Q/Q Q3		-11.4	-13.2
23:50	JPY	Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jul		0.50%	0.10%
08:30	GBP	Retail Sales M/M Aug		0.10%	0.40%
08:30	GBP	Retail Sales Y/Y Aug		2.70%	3.30%
09:00	EUR	Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jul		1.2B	1.0B
10:00	GBP	U.K. CBI Industrial Orders Sep		-49	-54
11:00	CAD	CPI M/M Aug		0.20%	-0.30%
11:00	CAD	CPI Y/Y Aug		-0.60%	-0.90%
11:00	CAD	BoC CPI Core M/M Aug		0.10%	0.00%
11:00	CAD	BoC CPI Core Y/Y Aug		1.60%	1.80%
12:00	CHF	SNB Interest Rate Decision		0.25%	0.25%
12:30	CAD	Leading Indicators M/M Aug		--	0.40%
12:30	USD	Housing Starts Aug		595K	581K
12:30	USD	Building Permits Aug		580K	560K
12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 12)		558K	550K
14:00	USD	Philadelphia Fed. Survey Sep		7.8	4.2

EIa and API

US Oil Inventory

Weekly change in inventory as of 11/09/09	Actual	Change	Market Expectation	Previous
Crude oil	332.8 mmb	-4.73 mmb	-2.50 mmb	-5.91 mmb
Gasoline	207.7 mmb	+0.55 mmb	+0.70mmb	+2.07 mmb
Distillate	167.8 mmb	+2.24 mmb	+1.25 mmb	+1.99 mmb

Comparison between API and EIA reports:

		API (Sep 11)			EIA (Sep 11)
	Actual	Inventory	Previous		Forecast (using API's inventory level)	Inventory
Crude oil	+0.63 mmb	336.9 mmb	-7.22 mmb		-7.39 mmb	337 mmb
Gasoline	+1.35 mmb	208.8 mmb	+0.57 mmb		+2.42mmb	209 mmb
Distillate	+5.20 mmb	170.3 mmb	+3.28 mmb		+1.54 mmb	170 mmb

API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, b

pull the offer

just to be clear if you did not buy the dip below 71 do not sell short at 72 industrial production

added to the rally

move sell 73

OIl and Natty

The report showing a huge draw with a weak dollar in an up market would usually send Oil up 8%

This is a very difficult read in crude here mixed signals from either side of the report

imports were down

I gave you a 70.5 guideline to buy off but take your profits scalping until a true direction avails itself to us

EIA

The front line shows huge draw gas and distillates did not wow
So buy weakness
\

Slightly bullish bias

buy 70.5






sell 72

the trend

Im long everything from AIG to X but I may add some BGZ if these guys who have suddenly turned bullish keep talking once they get on board a pullback is always in the offing

I feel like Oil wants to correct but everyone should wait for the EIA

Natty breaks 3.6 look out above Im gonna be mad If that happens without me

looking for the pullback there

Natty

I love natty and I called the very bottom to the penny and I bought it there

I am inclined to sell at 3.51

It is probably a short here but I will not sell this I will wait again for my next place to buy in and

I am hoping we get another chance in the 30's Gas Inventories are tomorrow I believe we will get a pullback towards the close

EIA

Today is EIA if it comes out like the API OIL is in Trouble no pricing until the report

Natty and X

Im hearing from some very smart people that the rally in Natty is over.

That is a pretty dumb comment we might get a pullback and I hope we do

because I didnt wring enough money out of this run

But I will say this You will not get rich betting against the likes of Goldman Sachs

There is stil an inventory issue it ran last week on a substantial build that happened to be better than expected so maybe we get a pullback and that should be bought

I am catching a ltlle falck from some members that sold X at 47.xx with me today

but If read the advice carefully it was sell if you were long and I advised buying the sept 45

line the day before at 1.10 it was like .40 over par and right at the strike and low risk way

to get bang for the buck buying the Big Steel. US steel broke through the trading range today and I wish I had held it all untilo 49.98 or so where its acme was but Still a pretty good trade

and if steel comes back down maybe make some money if it goes the other way

plus I also said to ratio buy 3 calls to every 200 shares of stock I still left so0me upside on the play. The steel proces dropping 8% were cast asunder versus Bernanke declaration of the end of the recession coupled with the strong ppi and retail sales.

The retail number even with autos out was still fairly remarkable -There is real hard data

that the recession is over- We will suffer moguls and how they are gonna get out of this inflation

trap is gonna be interesting but the recession is over nothing lasts forever except perhaps the cycles of the economy in themselves.

The third quarter sets up to be big we are killi this month just like last after that early stumble as most of these guys keep telling you to wait to get in. "Fundamentals do not justify prices" are you guys serious with that? How many point s are you guys gonna wait until; you get in? Please let me know when they finally buy because it will probably be a sale then.

I try to turn it off because a guy like Joseph Stiglitz will tell you tales of eco-horror that he writes within the walls of his giant house between bites of porterhouse and since we know how smart he is we sometimes even listen. The truth and even Alan Greenspan was big enough to admit this that this trades in the future there are too many variable where a slight adjustment

changes valuation so drastically to truly know the fuindamentals we are all working on best guess. I personally stand back and see that despite the rally from march we are long way from where we were and we will return and pass those levels it is just a matter of time. Recessions

as well as growth do not last forever it is all part of the cycle.

ecocalENDER

Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
01:00	AUD	Westpac Leading Index M/M Jul		--	0.70%
07:15	CHF	Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jul		0.70%	0.90%
08:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change Aug		25.0K	24.9K
08:30	GBP	Claimant Count Rate Aug		5.00%	4.90%
08:30	GBP	ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jul		8.00%	7.80%
09:00	CHF	ZEW Expectations Sep		--	18.6
09:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI M/M Aug		0.30%	-0.70%
09:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug		-0.20%	-0.20%
09:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Aug		1.20%	1.30%
12:30	CAD	Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jul		--	1.90%
12:30	USD	CPI M/M Aug		0.30%	0.00%
12:30	USD	CPI Y/Y Aug		-1.70%	-2.10%
12:30	USD	CPI Core M/M Aug		0.10%	0.10%
12:30	USD	CPI Core Y/Y Aug		1.40%	1.50%
12:30	USD	Current Account Balance Q2		-$92.0B	-$101.5B
13:00	USD	Net Long-term TIC Flows Jul		65.3B	90.7B
13:15	USD	Industrial Production Aug		0.70%	0.50%
13:15	USD	Capacity Utilization Aug		69.10%	68.50%
14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		-2.6M	-5.9M
17:00	USD	NAHB Housing Market Index Se

Lots of data to wet your whistle on tomorrow
IF EIA disappoints like API look out below
nATTY INVENTORY starting to put a damper on gas we may get one more chance near 3 to buy

api

API COMES BEARISH SHOULD KEEP THE PRESSURE ON untill at least EIA

crude +630k v-2.5me / gasoline+1.34 v +750 ke/ distillates +5.2 m v +1.5 me/capacity utilization 84.6%v 86.7% /

Unless the bootleg report agrees with the EIA it can no longer be trusted

also for the first time the rumor from the floor was off as well

biotech/hgsi

The biotech industry has been at the center of some M and A talk
HGSi gets a run towards the end of each day perhaps a 2:1 ratio synthetic buying the 20's on a dip say .6 and sell around 20.5 when it does that end of day who knows what could happen tonight froth run? the next morning you in turn buy the stock back in on weakness and you will start to generate profits while you in turn can dream of the glaxo hgsi marriage

AU Natural

I have been spouting intensely since friday buy dips if you did maybe sell pops here over 3.5
to flatten and buy again on a dip time 11:48 Im calling it a day soon
see you in the overnight good luck traders

natty one last time

Im buying dips if my trading system doesnt sell me back out I attempted to enter long at 3.345
the reason iSAW the turn at 3.33 and I know I want to be long so I use stochastics as an entry
aid I miss the very bottom but get on board after the turn typically

Natty and Oil

Goldman said 6 so we got the pump the pullback is a buy
but you can trade from either side we did not but saw it topping near 3.43
Getting some rumor mill talk once again the front line in Oil will show
A greater than expected draw no word on the distillates or gasoline estimates
but buying dips in Oil seems like the move to me considering what I have seen and now heard


Oil sell side moved up to 71

Oil and GAs and X

I sold a little above 47 in X against my 45 calls
and I look to buy as per my morning advisements at 3.31 if stochastics also permit
I gave you a 70 ceiling in Oil but that is guideline to sell always shade a quarter down say in a weak market like this or up a quarter or wait for me or check in with email to make sure anything i posted is still valid I usually answer in a timely fashion
Everyone knows at this point after accumulating for months my battleship portfolio takes a bit ofr a hit my citibank is taking water but my GE hanging in there

X and Natty

yesterday If you read all my postings I mentioned that The top of X current trading
I told you 47 was near the top of the recent range steel prices down 8% fundamentals chase the technicals this time Probably wise to take some off the table here if you are long US steel
I still believe long term X will break 100

I would be remiss id I did give you the voo doo report that natty has stong overhead resistance at 3.6 and looks a bit toppy here even at
3.4 safer for me to buy the discount keep in mind inventories will be out in a couple days the fear alone should sober this a bit


crude has a bear flag

QE

The PPI and Retail sales are in better than expected and they seem top be up just the right amount as the positive flow is steady
The big worry was that they would be too good and spur inflation fears which might initially push commodities but may reignite QE withdrawal

Morning Pricing

Can you believe Natty 2.40 -Last night touching 3.51 before pulling back the super contango

shrinking and the chart points to 4.41 on the near term of course I don't believe we will get there today but not too long. On Oil this tire tariff tiff is more than just annoying alliteration to traders

and fears of demand has most technicians and fundamental guys almost to the point of a clear

consensus prognosticating that oil will pierce the lower trend line of the Oil channel

I am hearing targets of 65 again not today as the news is likely to be positive and Ben is not going to tell you to "Sell it all I have no Idea what I'm doing or any clue whether to raise rates or turn off the printing press-you guys are in big trouble" No as usual he will tell you things are well in hand we have to be careful and we will not jump the gun on removing the Q.E.

Watch the dollar carefully for clues on Oils direction

Natty is buy the dips when you get em if you get em

Natty is the better play with a clear direction

natty buy 3.31

Sell at your own risk I am selling to flatten longs only

Oil oct

buy 68

Sell 70

tomorrow

We have ppi and retail, and Ben We should get a mixed bag but up the wall o f worry we go.

Do you think Joseph Stiglitz is suffering like many geniuses he seems tortured but his negatrice take on the economy almost has me in fact after listening to his gllomy diatribe I found myself shorting Oil last night just to protect myself. Good Sense thank goodness returned to me with the market still down as I was able to unwind my shorts and enjoy some longs.
The back line is in focus but we are back to normal Tuesday trading and remember the API
has been leaked 2 of the last 4 weeks
So if it acting inexplicably good or bad go with it abstain do not fight it-
I think the front line will again show a draw but I know the back line is in focus
Tonight I look to buy dips if possible i both gas and Oil.
The big "o" is soft on the banks? Instead of complaining buy them.

Recap/ecocal

Thre big "O" came out and waved the finger about how next time they might not bail these insurance giants out. So not fearing any regulation from the paper tiger the markets proceeded to rally. I am long a couple extra 43 calls but mostly in AIG I have  a vertical It it very easy to leg into 2 point verticals for a credit a relatively low risk move if you pick and option that trades for about a buck and sell the strike 2 bucks up for more than you bought the lower strike  with four point moves common place it really isn't hard 

Further every 2 point vertical done for even is a free shot at 2 bucks if AIG should close above 45 no tall feat. 

I gave out a plethora of good natty advice today simply buy and wait and sell and pull back and buy and wait.. repeat check the time stamps against the pricing to anyone who did not join in the fun.

My morning line was bearish for Oil and my initial sell reco was 69.5 on the freakin nose again time stamped before 7 AM 69.5 came in the 930 area but I ruined it as gas was moving and oil in concert I knew there was an outside of my immediate realm of understanding which turned out to be the reco in gas by Goldman -I moved the oil rec up to 70 the one mistake of the day

This should have been a very big day for any member who played along with me

I know two that sat it out and Im waiting to hear back from the others.

Those were tight calls almost everything worked today

Fridays guffaw a distant memory now! all profits booked!

See you for the overnight I am expecting some kind of southern drift in gas which probably should be bought as we get closet to Thursday inventories some fear should also pull this back that too should be bought. Oil with the poor distillates and gas and drive season is flailing but sentiment can change on a dime we look to buy below 68 sell 69.5 sti ll

:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance Aug		0.00%	-8.10%
01:30	AUD	RBA Meeting Minutes		--	--
07:15	CHF	Industrial Production Q/Q Q2		7.30%	-13.10%
08:30	GBP	CPI M/M Aug		0.30%	0.00%
08:30	GBP	CPI Y/Y Aug		1.40%	1.80%
08:30	GBP	Core CPI Y/Y Aug		1.60%	1.80%
08:30	GBP	RPI M/M Aug		0.20%	0.00%
08:30	GBP	RPI Y/Y Aug		-1.50%	-1.40%
08:30	GBP	DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Jul		-9.50%	-10.70%
09:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment Sep		60	56.1
09:00	EUR	Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Sep		60	54.9
12:30	CAD	New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Jul		5.00%	-0.60%
12:30	CAD	Labor Productivity Q/Q Q2		--	0.30%
12:30	USD	Advance Retail Sales Aug		1.80%	-0.10%
12:30	USD	Retail Sales ex-autos Aug		0.40%	-0.60%
12:30	USD	PPI M/M Aug		0.80%	-0.90%
12:30	USD	PPI Y/Y Aug		-5.40%	-6.80%
12:30	USD	PPI Core M/M Aug		0.10%	-0.10%
12:30	USD	PPI Core Y/Y Aug		2.20%	2.60%
12:30	USD	Empire Manufacturing Sep		14	12.08
14:00	USD	Fed's Bernanke Speaks on Financial Crisis in Washington		--	--
14:00	USD	Business Inventories Jul

There is a ton of data up for tomorrow pay attention