Friday Update

Anyone who  knows me or reads me knows I am a semi-aggressive trader I took shots on stocks like Citi when everyone thought it was going to go the way of the dodo. I would have bought GM as well if Chrysler did not prove just a short time earlier that big three's can go out of business.Before that in truth I would have taken a shot on GM I buy when it is darkest and Sell when it seems like there will never be another down day. once in a while I get taxed so to speak for this trading style but the times it works always more than makes up for any fliers I might have taken that did not work out

Today I am buying Oil and selling in a  semi-aggressive style   (also buying X  back again at low 39.2x area it was 43 yesterday and the next over-exuberance I will sell again.) I have already bought today at 71.03 and sold for a half. I missed the 70.80 buy in but would play there again should it touch.  This rally is on a much needed pause and the dollar is being tweaked by outside forces like the Japanese finance minister and Volker comments and the anticipation of Geithner's wisdom. This I do not believe will last. So buy your dips sell your pops and try to be long at 70.xx I am using 70.8 as my next serious buy in and I will put another line in the sand  at 70.37-If they penetrate 70 I will have returned $500 to my fellow oil traders and will 

join the bear dance. You have seen that at carnival's -yes? 

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Friday morning fog-Dollar rally you know what I meant

We are not really that bearish in fact I feel fairly comfortable buying with 70 underneath 

if it gets to my buy in point and I would view this as a very  strong entry the overwhelming

preponderance of bullish data has swayed all negatives into positives. Many have reasons to take some money off the table and as long as it holds the 70 line I remain bullish. 

The bearish stance today on the prices area a hopeful look to get long at a a nice price.

Hats off to anyone who picked 73.xx as the ST Top. That is some seriously strong position trading. The sell off is of course related to the Strong dollar.

We have to keep an eye on the dollar if it remans strong(Typo on earlier post ) -Oil will remain weak.

on secondary account note X looks super strong and we look to add some more below 40.

Also long BAC Since 11.5. buy this one below 12 with impunity. Tarp deal may actually get you one more shot at Bank America which I view as the best value of all the financials. Consumer confidence should be good. 

I'm sure you guys know I meant the dollar was strong and when currencies sell of I refer to the GBP,JPY,AUD,NZD etcetera. I guess fatigue is finally setting in this week. The G8 is  back in session today and Saturday so the dollar may get manipulated by Timmy G. the  other member of the Dynamic Duo(the other is Bernanke)who can affect the market dramatically with his comments. Import price index is up which is a foreboding of inflation. 

This trend of selling stock to raise money is a little troubling for the short term for the long term it will really not be that huge a factor. Go ahead and trade this one 

 My entries have already been sent.

 

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Thursday Overnight

Once again we venture towards the overnight everyone in the group having a very big week or so I am hearing -it wasn't a no brainer coming into Sunday Most, as we have said, thought lowermany held that opinion all the way until this morning needing a close over 71.5

to shake them out of their Bearish Coma. I am following a site and have been reading his poor followers comments about "still short from 68.xx if it makes you feel any better" and How "he never claimed to be always right" Certainly not this week.  

 Anyway no one claimed Oil handicapping was easy and you must interpret the massive amount of available information factor in adjustable variable with a dash of unknown unfolding events.

We use technical analysis economics and listen to as many opinions as possible but ultimate formulate our own-I also take it several steps further mapping out a trading attack for anyone who is interested and I step out on the line and give out actual prices with my trading bias.

All in all it has been working since its inception in late February and I thank the charter membership for having the faith and joining as we will have to get our new site opened to accommodate any more members. I have engaged someone and hopefully it will be completed soon I am anxious to take the site completely private and post on a delay to the outsiders that can watch from afar.

Tonight we will have the psychology battle which should allow for a run up and a mini-sell off back down not necessarily in that order more than likely it can be traded and although

i believe the economy gets worse at a slower pace this rally now is going to need Botox if it wants to continue to stay youthful in appearance. I believe they actually have a handle on the numbers and they will be bang in line but we should be able to rake a shekel or two

from the speculation up and down Ideally when it is all said and done and I am ready to count sheep I hope to be long stop adjusted to break even but I would take the free-shot from the sell 

side if it develops that way we hope to make two "round--trips"this evening buying dips

and selling pops if we are going to work every night we should get paid I think.

watch us fly from afar.

 

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3:53 thursday after Open-out cry

These guys from Bloomberg and CNBC remain unchanged the market goes higher. It is an up day on Wall street so they are parading the bullish analyst out now 970 is the next stop on the 

S+P this is my feeling as well the diffence is next down day they will tell you the S+P is headed down to 900 level. These guys are a little irresponsible trying to look like they are on the right side of the market. 

Also I am trader not a politician but the hypocrisy and grandstanding today in congress was a disgrace- that is after the fact and was unclear what the roasting Of Bank America's CEO hoped to accomplish as It is not in any trouble anymore-Is that a Bernanke witch hunt? Or were they just

trying to get that "holier than thou" look. I am long a crap load of BAC and sold some 13's at .51 hope I do not get assigned I like the stock I will add more on a pull back.

We are looking to to price and believe it or not I think I am still bullish I have been Long 

positioning since we got of the Monday early miscue.   

I see readership is up dramatically on my analytics far more than my subscribed membership.

Word must be getting out besides a couple tweets here and there I haven't been advertising.

I believed if I consistently called it correctly The people would come depite the typos.

Overnight positioning game plan to come at the break. Eat dinner lift weights back to the war room.

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Retail not all it cracked up to be

They are reporting stronger retail I'm hearing what I heard last night that the numbers are a little skewed as a result of the pop at the pumps.  Euro has wobbly legs unlike most other currencies vs. Dollar. 

The technician I consult has finally turned bullish so it may be safe to sell now.

You would be crazy to take a stand against this beast but trading with stops from either side 

is not such a bad idea as you can see from the chart I took a couple fliers from the sell 

side and covered for a scanty profit.  Slight resistance at the Globex high at 72.3

currently 71.65. I have some business to attend to but believe this can be traded from either side again today.

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RIMM gets another thumbs up

They are estimating better earnings for Rimm any that hoped they would get a pullback in the device maker should think again it will now go up a few more points if you want to benefit buy calls and just think almost 33 dollars a share  just three short months ago.  Almost everyone I know has a blackberry or an Iphone how could you not buy that one? Apple has gone up nicely but it was still a very expensive stock even back in March Rimm  that is the kind of stock that gets your down payment on your condo together.  I may buy a few calls today I love Rimm but 

I think Im gonna get the new Iphone.

                       Back to Oil

We gave out an overnight play buy at 71 or any dip on the re-open it dropped to 71.36

we missed trying to get pricing and we all know the currencies made a move boom 72

one shot to get in and that was all she wrote. You could have chased at .40 .50 .75 .80

and now 72 Talking to a couple members last night pointed out that each new top seems pricey until it makes a new one.

 

Dollar is weak thanks to the Kiwi-and they are talking down the dollar as the reserve currency

again. Pricing will be out to members shortly.

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New Day

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New Day

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Supplemental Overnight note

the chart on the left is aminute chart

the line underneath is where qwe targeted the buy in but did not in fact buy in

Once again wading until the later hours of the night 10:30

 We told members prior to the start to buy dips- we hoped for 71 but said to buy

like last night on any retreat. Last nightI did not get in myself on the first pullback, but got in on the 2nd at 70.54. 

Tonight the difference is we are coping with even more good news on oil as rates were not raised in New Zealand spurring a rally in the Kiwi which means a week Greenback which of course is bullish for OIl.

It has backed off it's attempt at 72 resting like a giant ready to wreak havoc should it awaken

it drifted back to 71.82 and that is not much of a pullback. We can't say we have been chasing as almost every member has been riding the bull wagon since we discovered the short covering rally followed by the three Reco's two from Goldman one from Morgan and today's inventory draw which was a surprise to no one but they called it that on Bloomberg. 

Remember Sunday night 68% of analyst surveyed said Oil would go down this week that is a record. There are many poor analysts is all I can say.

  The currencies continue to rally and 71.85 will appear to be a bargain soon.

My bid is 71.45 I hope I get in tonight.  The new sight will be up soon I am told.

So the guy  in Glendale heights Illinois will not have the new address the url will simply be 

Oilitradinginsider.com it will be published delayed to non-members he should just join since he reads everyday.

All members get direct pricing at least once daily

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overnight- Wednesday June 10

Again it is the overnight and we try to get inside the minds of the trading population which determines Oil's true price under the auction process. So far In the 2.43 hours we have seen oil drift slightly off the extended close down 7 cents it got as low as 71.33 and turned back up 

and looks headed back The high yield currencies appear to be rallying on the early part of the evening. Retail data is up my sources tell me they are expecting a bad number but I wouldn't be shocked if it was discounted or actually came up better than expected. Oil only listens to good news this week. Bad news is  Oil red-headed step-child until further notice. So a surpise good number could take oil up systemically with the market. I am trying to buy in. I was hoping for 71 but I will buy the next dip wherever that may be.

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The Glass is Half -full-the tanks are more than half empty

the chart to the left is a step back to look at the larger picture lest anyone think we have already rallied and gone up too much

The dollar matters only when it is weak-Inventories only matter  when they show a draw

The myopic near-term supply does not matter- The market is a forward looking indicator  and perhaps a little less so for Oil not so much that it cannot grasp the concept that is right before all of our eyes. We as a nation for that matter as a species currently depend on oil. 

Discoveries are being out-paced by usage and we are in the tail end of a global recession.

China is coming in masse- they are a ravenous bunch there was some manufacturing data out today re-cementing the notion they will come out first and stronger than ever. Oil is finite

hence something that becomes rare and is in demand simply put becomes more expensive.

The recession has also set up scenarios which have caused some production cuts which will cause an even greater demand squeeze. 

There are still a host of problems afoot and the administrations printing press and other monetary policy's harken us back to the 70's and stagflation but even then oil prices spiked.Does anyone remember the odd and even numbered license plate days when only certain cars were allowed to get gas and the incredibly insanely long of automobiles lines up to get the rationed amount -ah but I digress. The reason for the gas crisis then was an OPEC embargo this time -much scarier we may actually run out at some point in the future.

All this being said you might see prices in the years to come in excess of $300 a barrel or more

I tell you what if It is gonna cost me sextuple what it costs me today I had better have a very nice bank account.

I believe we shall see 75 before too long. I am buying dips in the 70.5x area we  not get another for a while in which case I will adjust higher. Long term and I hope anyone who reads me understands this. I felt a correction was eminently possible as I got a little too close to the data I was scouring to clearly see the bigger picture-before days out I had reversed this idea however and we have been legging most of our trades from the long side since the 67.8 bottom call intraday monday. If I  had enough money I would love to just  buy and hold until it broke a hundred or more which it definitely will some day brushing the occasional correction off my shoulders.  I am forced to trade which beats ditch digging I am told and 

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Last Assesment until Overnight

Trading until 1 am and starting early has me a little bleary so I am going to the gym and range and back for the overnight. That EIA Play was to be bought and sold and I believe that was implied. we trade nobody wants 1000 barrels of oil delivered to their condo I mean who would sign for that if you were not home. The dollar has found its legs for the time being keeping a lid or this thing would have just exploded higher still if you were with me on the overnight psychology play you like me are probably done for the day.

  I am now almost hoping for a pullback so I can add to my secondary account. I think we posted that we were buying steel again earlier in the week looks like a good buy now even Cramer finally decided to say it was too low at like 38 just 21 points off the bottom.

This stock when I first started buying it was in the  17 area I kid you not and that was this past March! We sold some calls a little early at 37 this week and may sell a few more at the 40 area.

After a slow start monday we are back on track nicely

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EIA any minute-5 minutes

we are stalking the EIA this morning like we are on safari. The overnight play with a trailing stops nets $900

the high so far 71.65 stop out with a 35 cent trail

   Dollar turned so careful now

With a good report 70 is now 

a support line below with a bad report and a stronger dollar we may find we are standing on trick floor

re-act to the report

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Overnight Play gets fuel to the fire

The second chart shows where i patiently waited for oil to come to me getting the second best price available on the overnight play

I tell members to play the overnight and most think they can take it off and worry about it tomorrow. Last night standing order's were to buy at 70.35 or any dip you can stop adjust to even and await the EIA we predicted an overnight anticipation of an EIA draw and we got more than that. I got long in the 70.54 area waiting until past 11PM vigilantly looking for a dip to get on board. The writing on the wall was in upper-case letters.

Today Home depots positive earning's on the heel's of Intel's earning is further confirmation This Krugman fellow might be right! I guess you have to earn one of those Nobel's!

Also there is some consumer optimism and the financials repaying tarp is getting a positive spin. I am sending emails for pricing but everyone of my members should be up nearly a thousand with a trailing stop already taking this ride as long as it goes! I make back my two idiotic stop outs with ease and then some.

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If you stay up long enough- We buy 70.51

Okey-dokey  We buy at 70.51 on a dip and stop adjust to even so lets see what happens 

Members trading the overnight with me make sure your stop orders are active and the price is adjusted to three cents more than we paid to ensure a break even if crude should move against 

Stayed up until nearly midnight for this play let's go Crude if not we crush em with the crowd on the stampeded south.

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Overnight-Tuesday A peek at the EIA/

I have a subscription which tipped me to the "Dark Cloud Cover" formation in the USO it is a bearish reversal pattern. I proceed to input the chart and sure enough the great warning of a down move was there right before my eyes. That was with oil at 67.xx. Sunday Night. The Dollar had supposedly put in it's bottom  and the high yield currencies their respective top as far as the technicians were concerned.

 So much for the ancient Japanese  art of candlestick divination.  I don't care what formation or resistance line  or how many boats have oil ready for a cash exchange. You get a Goldman Rec on both the Euro and Oil itself with this glass half-full and you are going to see sparks fly.

  There is an excess of Oil but it is  condition that will not last but may become an excuse for some type of correction.  So short term in fact that the EIA is expected to show a draw that is mostly what the 4PM rip through 70 had behind it. Does that mean that the news is out so it is safe to sell. Not really. the ball has been placed on the tee if the EIA confirms tomorrow we buy and ride because there seems to be no end in sight for the freefall of the greenback. If things work conversely we see a significant pullback. I don't expect a non-event either way.

Oil re-opened on the overnight drifted down to 70.43 climbed up to 70.9x and settle right between the blues at 70.75 where it sits now at 10:53. You had one chance to get in tonight

and I have not thus far. by tomorrow we should be here or higher anticpating this event

buy or sell  depending on the outcome should be quite a show

Today I can take the first stop out I had stayed in the trenches and that was only my second stop of the day It is part of the program how I re-entered an order at 70.35 is beyond even myself. It does not pay to get emotional I worked very very hard for the $2000- I was ahead

and did not like throwing  $470 down the garbage shoot so fast I believ my head is just about to stop spinning now.

We tried to buy and stop so we would have a pot shot at a good number on the EIA

if we can't get a trade and remove risk we will playing on the news at 9.

A free shot could work on either side members as I was explaining to one trader who was long last night while I was short -CL had moved in between us allowing both of us to stop protect

So his free shot would have paid off as we all awoke to the angry smoke from the nose of the 

bull.

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Inventory Story

after everything that came down the pike gasoline has spiked on inventories and the word is Inventories are gonna shrink for Oil as well-the API came bullish 

We buy 70.35 or any dip if we get one

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Running this thing in extended trading

We pulled our orders after getting singed twice giving back $470 of a strong day trading

We are checking to see what is pushing this all news we thought was out recheck this on the overnight

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Redemption We called it up gave out very workable entries

check the chart to your left and check your emails I sent you a reco to buy at at 69.20-69-55

this is a 5 minute chart you could have bought and sold for a period of nearly four hours

making well over 10 round trips 

plus I gave you cents off the low in a second posting

This morning we were convinced the correction was not coming  it was 7:30 -8am

and most of the rally had already occurred  we gave out lower buy entry  and 70 area sellentry  but posted that we were slightly bullish. We later  emailed out supplementary ranges and buy entries of 69.25 and also posted a buy reco 68.9 which was hit shortly thereafter. We  urged member to buy in two Zones the latter being the play of the day. 

  Being within 19 cents of the high and 10 cents of the low is fairly impressive we urged legging in from the buy side and it close up.  The only other thing we could have done to help you make money was do the trading for you and maybe if you join our fund I can do that as well. Oil is 

hanging around it's new home of 70 and Goldman comes out and endorses the euro vs. the dollar and that is practically a reco for oil itself. 

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Sell the News buy the dips

The news about the tarp was about as good a story as they could tell  but still raised questions of disparity amongst the banks. Our sell spot of 69.99

stays untouched sadly as oil peaked 69.82 17 cents from the entry for now We would have reversed if it touched instead of just selling our long.

We still buy dips this time on the pivot of support which was previously resistance 68.9x

area (previously we were back and forth between 69.25-69.75). The wholesale inventories were better than last month but not as good as they hoped and the Chrysler delay throws some cold water on the recovery vibe which seems to change like the wind you have to trade today 

it is hard work and you need to stay vigilant however there is still a nice living to be made this way.

 It is not my favorite way to go

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Tarp on Tap

the Financials can drive the market which can in turn drive oil for now I am buying dips 

as we wait for news on the tarp. They will not come out with a bad report but then again we are not supposed to be grading our own papers are we. Since they are likely to paint a pretty picture for the banks and Tech earning came out strong with Intel representing well and the weak dollar this morning legging in from the buy side seems prudent even with the futures cooling off as we approach the open. If you are with me be there from the start so if you do get stopped 

you have already made enough to absorb the .25 cents. there have been a bunch of quarters 

back and forth already I remain long from this area

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Discount the last Title /June 8 Slightly bullish

The price range I am giving is for the position or patient trader. Yesterday, I was anything but that. On Monday we donned the hat of the manic minute trader so it seems ill advised to give out reco's unless you request by email as I am constantly buying selling re-drawing and pretty much watching and reacting to almost every tick-In this mode a quarter can work but a half is much better and the stop rules still apply. We traded until  11 pm last night 

we picked up a handful of quarters under very low stress conditions generating nearly an extra thousand before being stopped out for even on our last sell which could have been one more quarter but C'est la Vie! we said if it breaks through 68.9  to buy -So if you are not going to hold but just flip you can buy higher (on the way up) and my my first leg in from the sell side remains

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Tuesday 6-02/Rally starting to show some gray

There were a lot of forces at work yesterday certainly a great deal more than a reco from Morgan we were up trading the range last night it made over 5 trips yesterday to the 68.9

and as we were saying it did eventually get through. With arguments for and against

trading becomes the next obvious step. Last night we were selling at 68.9 Buying below 68.60

we recommended going long at 68 which was the traded through to 67.8 and popped before either Krugman gave his rose colored economy outlook  or JPM gave it's thumbs up whichever theory you want to believe  Today like yesterday we trade both side look to the emails for pricing

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Monday overnight revision

I  tooki technical analysis just like every other trader probably has and although it has its uses I do not put as much stock as most technicians do who believe it is the only toll you really need and it has economic data factored in. I find that a lot of patterns are explained after the fact and fit the scenarios we spin them into on occasion. We that  being said we see some resistance here it has now defended this 68.90 zone 4

times we have made money twice picking up another quarter here 

but experience tells us if it keeps knocking at the door it will eventually get in.  We continue to sell at 68.9x for  trading purposes we see 70 as the next resistance level after this one. We are buyers at 68 area if it dips all else constant 

again if you have not made a money or taken one of these round trips 

see resista

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Overnight Positioning Monday Night

When every single argument is bearish for Oil vs. Inflation fears today Inflation wins

with a dose of Nobel Prize Winning Krugman and some Short covering

After this  low volume anaomoly we see an argument can be made for stagflation 

and that would make it unanimous bearish sentiment but not so fast

I believe we will get a correction but my longer term look is up at 75-85 I am with the boys at Goldman. If thios market should turn up or find some reason to shake off the naysayers Oil will not take its much needed break and run too.

 So for the Overnight we remain bearish but cautious the entry points were off at first(we did say if it takes out that price of 67.9 we may reverse to more than one member) and brilliant at the end  after several adjustment we have made several sales above 68.75 but missed selling on the extended cloe offering 68.84 I am still a seller  Last trade 68.60 at 6:38

Open-out cry is closed We are in extended Globex trading

We gave more than  two sets of entries today.  Our second sell entry was covered at a small profit  but the  third which was given along with a buy reco at 67.80 would have made  members money on both sides of the market. The last entry on the sell side at 68.75 was not a stop out as the highest it reached was 68.95  and If you followed directions and were not scalping you also had the cue to buy on a dip to 67.8 which also was hit. All in all chances today if you listened but you also would have needed the patience of Job as they say. I was too close trading for small change and wish I went the route I suggested to members there would be more money and  less trades. I am still selling into strength  right below 69 with the dollar this high and a correction of some sorts is extremely possible.

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Oil head fakes and we are relegated to day trading

this is the first blown call in a very long timeI was  far from alone making it I am disappointed I did not recognize the scenario sooner -some members are day trading along side me ample chances but hard work profits are being taken as low as fifteen cents so stops are tight  as well

In retrospect obviously the correct play would have been to buy the  pullback under 68

and apologies to the membership  for not recognizing the inflation fears and Short-covering scenario sooner.

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The Delayed crack? trade at least there are quarters around here

We sold 68.6 covered 68.5 and just resold at 68.4. We recommend all members sell at the 68.75 entry point this is a hunch that things we expected to happen may still but later as the weaker sisters get shaken off the southbound train-there are chances to pick up  quarters for the astute trader

and maybe even a little more- we are getting close shaves tempted to trade for fear that we may sleep on the 22" viewsonic otherwise. Is anybody else scalping here back and forth pretty much between 68-68.45 for an eternity. We are going to keep the short we made nice trades last night and one stop out and one re-assess cover and now one for anticipated positioning.

Just letting you guys in on where I stand

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Strength is to be Sold

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Super tight trading range

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Inflation and rates and sentiment trump reality

We went for it this time!  A correction was so due now there are reasons to believe all this bearish data will discounted for now. I covered my  68.60 for .10 cents not for the $100 but to re-assess. I was bearish without any help so I can blame no one but once I saw that everyone else was as well-well It definitely had me thinking but not fast enough.

The new range is old range as buy 67.80 and sell around the 68.75 region. As the correction we had hoped for looks a little premature-We are stuck trading today when we psyched to stop adjust. The S+P has recovered slightly as banks have reversed earlier losses. Inflation fears have reared their ugly head after the short covering rally and sentiment once again trumps reality.

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new intra-day trading range kee

Money can now be made from either side with the globex high break out

tentative buyer now 67.9 one time 

seller 68.6

Inflation fear will bring sentiment back into the picture and that of course changes everything

Shell analyst calling for a spike  -- Careful  situation has been altered 

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It started to look a little suspicious/short covering rally

That might be all folks that is kind of what we were just talking about My second entry at 68.6

missed by a lousy penny. I am hearing that some in the group sold that SCR at 68.55

And I say that is some  head's up trading we should have pulled our offer when we witnessed this thing just hang out  we wrote about this possibility just minutes before occurred and 

hopefully more members got the message to sell a little higher even if they got stopped.

That trade has already come and gone as oil went to 67.95 almost immediately after.

We did say if it broke we might be buyers at 67.91 but alas we were waxing romantically about this potential now official "Short covering Rally" I am seller into the peak  of this manipulation

When everyone is short and it does not go down it has nowhere to go but up.

Still one stop out in four entries

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