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Saturday, July 25, 2009
Oil Set for 70/Seconday account notes
You guys know I have been bullish I do not understand all of these analyst these days
I was leaning from the sell side Friday at least for a reason Amazon and Microsoft are very big
and they both disappointed and Microsoft in a big way it single handed kept the Nasdaq down in the face of the Dow rally. The Market is going up too fast? Says who- Did you guys just not witness how many days and weeks and months in a row it went down.
Everyone should at least agree on one thing we will be higher next year than we are this year.
there will be twists and turns but we lost 11 years of value in one that 41% rally from March 9th
barely has us up for the year the year before since Late June was horrific.
Yes the jobs are troublesome but they lag the market does not and if that is your criteria for getting long than you will be buying at the highs because the Market leads it does not follow.
Again we are brought to the question what now well the market is the beacon for Oil
but the stage is set for a run to 70 It will take a serious sell off to stop Oil from 70 and For all these guys and I would say it is a clear majority including the commercials you are wrong and have been wrong and continue to be wrong. The technicians who sop deseparately called for a sell off Mon-Fri you are wrong and continue to be wrong. Wait for the data to say sell We get it and there will be plenty of time to sell then we are not getting any data to support a bearish position earnings are up they drive the market which improves sentiment
which Oil devours as by now you should all know. There is a litany of reasons to keep buying including housing and extending even to the pace of unemployment just the mere paring of that number given the way it follows has to be taken with encouragement for traders. Also there is a case to be made for the high-yield currencies specifically the AUD with its interest rate sensitive enviroment and if they rally Oil becomes cheaper to buy and therefore gets bought.
The good names are easy Verizon and ATT and basically anything associated with the iphone looks good right now. On the earnings front we have "x" on Tuesday and "Dis" on thursday
we have seen a pattern for the steel makers that we think will continue Tuesday for Steel
currently we sold the stock but bought the 40 calls we have a synthetic put therefore we believe its run form 30 just 7 trading days ago will be met with a pull back to say 37 then I think you have to turn around and buy again.
How about DIS we know about the sector being strong as movies are expensive relative to other entertainment choices it is cheap blockbusters keeps putting up big numbers and DIS took its share there. This "Up" movie was huge and held the lead and put in strong numbers after that. That is something real to hang onto to something you can hang your hat on so to speak
a reason.
This blog will not be available to non-subscribers in less than a week I will not bother publishing delayed so If you want to join I would now it will not get cheaper- As you may or may not know it is against FTC regulations to publish testimonials that are not genuine and we have some real ones people who we have helped. It is difficult to trade in these markets and most people need a little help and that is what we attempt to do as we trade ourselves.
So in review short term plays on apullback buy DIS before thursday
Sell X and buy buy after earnings pullback
Trade Oil wit ha bullish bias until we get some data that supports a bearish one we do not have that yet.
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Friday, July 24, 2009
Once again we should always go with our initial call which again was completely correct
it had us buying at 66.75 and sell above the range
I am and have been bullish I knew It had cleared an important tech hurdle and that global indicators were positive and oil has inertia we just played for a friday profit taking
bad news oriented systemic pull back but if you remeber what I said a couple posts ag0
Stocks are separating poor earnings are now affecting just the companies and sector to which they belong this is evidence we are if not out of the recession out of the bear market
so even though today fro last was one of the few days I traded poorly I believe
we are out of the woods buy pullbacks there is no data at present to support
anything else. Massive dollars on the sidelines everytime we get a down tick buyers come
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Pretty Tight range for Oil
Bullish eco data and high yield currency allows Oil to shrug off soft market
we gave you guys a very tight range today I do not know if anyone noticed
Looks like that prediction was on-point
I will be previewing new site
the address will be oilitradinginsider.com I am being told final mock up will be resdy for my sign off this afternoon
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Earnings season full blown now
131 more companies report today and these positive kicks have been the meat behind this rally in everything else so that is why we spend so much time talking about it
over 705 positive surprises and after today we will know that trend is going to continue or not
I think the quarter was a rebound for most sectors and ones that is was not it is a hope set up
Even Msft has hope after their first negative report ever-the new OS is getting rave reviews
and people will buy it as it so much cheaper than apple this one is a long term buy the dips for sure but today will not be the day
This will probably be consolidation day off a slightly when all is said and done
I buy oil on this dip if we saty above 66.25 if we crack I will re-evaluate
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shift and slide66
If you are grnding it like me sell at 67.55 buy 66.65
but as you see it turn you can jump o and ride for .20 almost everytime
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trading range
we have been trading this this all night and we noticed it bounce off the 66.75 area anumbers of times so we covered went long there sold and went short again at 67.30 we may cover again but now futures are negative so we may wait for our 66.25 to cover keep an eye on both
everyone had a second and third chance after the last post to sell
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Friday roll up your sleeves and trad
We dumped our Msft in the pre-open on a minor bounce at 24.05
We sold once contract Oil 67.30 stop 67.70
We think this rally will get faded we are are short in some places
There have been earnings positive surprises everywhere now with Amazon and Msft some negative ones to splice in their-GReat Britain GDP was terrible extending the disconnect between east and west.
Members early price remarks are only valid with market in positive territory
if oil remains above 66.25 we are likely to cover there and wait and see
A correctioncould be in the cards today
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Yesterday calls were strong
Sometimes you should leave well enough alone I was at my quota when a trade with Msft
has caused me to re-enter the fray and last night we thought Amazon ansMsft would have a worse effect but there were good retail numbers in GB and GDP as well asnd good consumer confidence in Germany this currency rally has spurred the currencies which has kicked started oil which closed technically very strong and in turn helped the overall market
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Overnight Misplay
We gave a little too much credence to the power of our companies bad earinings
good global news helping the currencies and Cit has some positve news on tender allaying bankruptcy fears
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Thursday, July 23, 2009
calling it a night
10:35 Short from .82 could have traded it but Im being lazy and i'm tired of helping IB get rich
So I am playing for the us market-Strangely we might get overnight sympathy rallies which
might push oil overnight but all the way through the looking glass when we get back here
the poor earning from the close should have the futures down at least to start the day
New companies with positive surprise could reverse direction
Oil and the market cleared big levels today and worldwide especially Asia china Singapore
Korea they are coming out ahead of us so we should see some strength there
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we covere after the futures pop
We will be a seller somewhere tonight thinking this is a headfake the futures do a bounce after the 100 point drop
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re-open overnight short at 66.6 scary huh!
we sell one contract at 66.6 on the re-open why wait
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After the close
w use fundamentals despite studying technical analysis we know a good slap to the face
hurts more than an insult so when companies like MSFT and AMZN disappoint we will take that as more than a harbinger that things will go south for a bit. Especially i the sectors where the earnings came from and specifically the company itself- After missing a play on Ebay and Apple
I was determined to get some of that free earnings play money tday and bought Msft in pre-market they have no "Iphone" so in retrospect I am asking myself why-Well I heard their new OS is what Vista was supposed to be and perhaps Msft could recapture the old glory of the eighties and nineties. There was also the piece on Bing this is one of those mergers that is supposed to help Msft finally topple Goog. All that is well and good for now all that is left is missed estimates crying loss of revenue due to recession-Try do to Vista that OS was just plain horrible maybe makes DOS easier and more efficient to use.
We now have a basis for a sell-off and if he stocks sell Oil will Sell they are intertwined
if news breaks that parries the losers of the same magnitude then we will say the run can continue right now there is a bear in the air.
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Oil can move when it wants to
do not get lulled into a false sense of security because oil has been in a two to three point range for so many session OP)il can move 6 bucks a day all it ned is a reason
It wil be back aqt those highs there is just enough data going both ways to keep this semi orderly
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another look at the channel
We covered that short for .20 cents we may sell at our initial entry 67.5 check in 1st
An oil trader's best friend besides belonging to Oilitradinginsider.blogspot.com
soon to be Oilitradinginsider.com
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Looking a little toppy for a trade I sell one 67.10
5 cents below the 3/07 high and Our first short offering of the day buy back quickly Im still not bearish just trading
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Last night we told you we believed we were on way back to 73
we are getting close to being able to trade this from the sell side soon
I should have kept adjusting stop but we gave u a buy 64.75 and sell 67.5
this morning and made adjustments on the buy side and got in right above bottom
the low was 64.4 we told u right before to adjust but buy dip and after it went to 65 we told u we were staying long and you could have bought there also where we sold at 66.3 we warned only sell if u were long not to short
lots of good advice
WAIT UNTIL YOU GUYS SEE THE NEW SITE IT IS HOT! ALMOST DONE FINALLY!
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another technical point
technicians are considering a close above 66.25 a sign that 73 will be revisited so we will have to see -you have to love that trade however- It pays to pay attention to earnings old school market
I am above my watermark and unless the market gets killed and forces me to scalp I am good for the week and really do not have to take any more risk unless the trade is completely obvious
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We sold at 66.30
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and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
Members stay alert-I told u it might go through
after all my advice it is hard to believe that any of my members would not have bought that dip
Only sell if you bought Im moving stop again and taking my shot
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Not really jumping
Oil seems to lag continuing to hang around 65 the housing numbers push the market
and helped reverse oil but I would have expected more than this
I move stop this time to protect a profit and take a shot on a run instead of trade out if the market continues the Black Gold will not be able
to stay put there has been a preponderence of good news with very little bad to offset
this mild rally will turn violent if the shorts get nervous
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playing to pendulum
even though we told you support line was 63.75 we buy at 64.5
futures turn back up and st indicators on e-sig green light the trade the adjustment
told u to buy that dip
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Technical Perspective
63.75 looks to be that all important support line and I think we have to be buyers there unless it completely breaks down-crude continues to be range bound stay light on your feet and adjust
housing numbers next
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watch the action
I saw the futures I see sectors get hit and I get out simple as that I was up so I bailed and canceled stop-Mortgage rules seems to be applying pressure probably gonna buy this dip
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trading range
most of us will be happy with a point these days I bought at 64.9 and will sell at resistance 65.75
I believe we will break through at some point and look to continue to buy dips but in this toppy market enviro it is hard not to just take a profit when u see one staring at u.
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jobs in line
non-event for jobs bang in line
554000 consensus 555 continuing claims drop but probably just end of benefits
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trading ranges pre jobs numbers
members who wish to know where i am buying or selling just drop an email and I will bring you in the loop ups numbers came out bad and after all the upward momentum we see negative news has a greater weight than equal positive news
adjust buy in number down a half
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member pricing out via email anon
Lots o positive earnings surprises Ebay Ford Starwood from nearly every sector better surprise
mortgage and housing affecting market and jobless numbers all due we need another
piece to fall into place as basically all these good reports leave the market barely upticked.
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
its been a wild overnight so far
we get a chance on a piullback go long at .40 and we will sell and short one at .75
but cover before we sleep and proba b position long again with stop
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jumped the gun
We get long like two hours ago and sell at .41 and it immediately goes to .63
can't be mad but it is a little aggravating
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we are gonna take the $360
we sell at .41 as we think we will get one chance or two to get long
we have to pay for those aks lottery tickets
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Welcome another oilitradinginsider to the alumni
I'm happy to say one more member has joined in my quest and I will try to serve as always
We have taken a hard look and we have been both long and short we have been testing out es-ignal stochastics for day trading or scalping and found it to be helpful but you still have to also be aware of the currencies, pending news, the market ,oil stocks and other tech indicators and support and resistance areas . Well as you know currently long 65.05 lets see where she goes!
US Oil Inventory
| Weekly change in inventory as of 17/07/09 | Actual | Change | Market Expectation | Previous |
| Crude oil | 342.7 mmb | -1.80 mmb | -2.10 mmb | -2.81 mmb |
| Gasoline | 215.4 mmb | +0.81 mmb | +0.88mmb | +1.44 mmb |
| Distillate | 160.5 mmb | +1.22 mmb | +2.00 mmb | +0.55 m |
I don't ask a lot of you guys but I would be interested if mebers could log on at some point in the next week or so and vote on a poll I'm taking.
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
The futures are up -overnight -65 lonhg
I don't know if it will stick but If we can get any decent run towards a thousand we beg the iopen at .39 buying anf going long at 65.05 we will watch the futures but if they hold up and if the jobs are in line or better than expected lieve oil with has abstained from the last part of tyhe rally and from a depreciation of the greenback
the close over 65 has us range trading this evening selllki
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and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
Oilitradinginsider.blogspot.com you have come to the right place for oil futures trading.
Members who join can email me And many do all day long getting more than the two postings a day this is a great site to join and a bargain until the new site is ready
I may post the mock-up if I can but as I have said I am a trader not even close to a web designer
Today we started by declaring a range of 64-66 within a quarter of both sides of the top and bottom. Once I made the purchase at 63.80 I shifted lower but we help other traders
buy and sell throughout the key trading ranges of the day-we played the 64.5-65.25 bracket
the 63.75-64.5 braccket and most of the day centered around around the 62.80-63.77
you could have traded within this bracket practically for two and half hours safely
satying on the wings and selling or buying for a profit depending upon the entry.
Point is this is a diificult game and some traders are too busy and don't need that much help
perhaps the initial range sent directly to their email is enough but some are struggling and I helped several traders today make between $425-$1400 if you have been losing that can come in handy for your confidence of your ability. Also at $40 bucks a month you cannot go wrong
click on the paypal button and join I can and will help you be a better trader.
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
What did you think guys RECAP eco-cal
Well we started off re-eia 64 buy 66 sell
the low was 63.75 the high was 65.75
I shifted down but over I had the range pegged
I did get the wrong take-the EIA is tricky comes in worse than expectations but reads bullish because
the API was so negative the night before not the first time
I think the pace of gasoline build also played a part
as it has been one of the prime factors of late
Today we directed at least 8 winning trades for any member that needed an escort
Oil has shaken off the threat and seems poised to make its way back to 73 there will be some bumps as we are closely tied
I personally got clipped in that AKS call purchase and did not get the stock off as I got a little greedy so my trading went
to pay for those calls
We are returning to the old market the easy money is gone find companies that beat with good revenue
and good estimates to make money in equities
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance (JPY) Jun | 0.51T | 0.22T | ||
| 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Current Account (EUR) May | -3.6B | -5.9B | ||
| 08:30 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M Jun | 0.30% | -0.60% | ||
| 08:30 | GBP | Retail Sales Y/Y Jun | 2.10% | -1.60% | ||
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 555K | 522K | ||
| 14:00 | USD | Existing Home Sales Jun | 4.80M | 4.77M | ||
| 14:30 | CAD | BoC Monetary Policy Report | -- | -- | ||
| 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 63B | 90B |
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trade update 12:31
we sell our` long at 65.55 and look to short in the 65.70 area
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cover long 1
cover 65.15 and buy 1 stop in place dump as soon as reasonable profit surface just churning
at least two members went short with me wonder if they will renew their subscriptions
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after the draw
Currencies have reversed and crude looks to hit the upper scope
We sold at 65.55 but we have a tight stop our we believe the top is a point higher
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Some people are callingt his a positive surprsie
invent draw 1.8 i thought they were looking for a 2.1 draw to me that is worse
I sell the pop once Im up though
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and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
We just sold and now cover
we told you to come in short with us a few minutes ago 64.74 cover
64.45 10:22 we have taking halves but I think we will get another short entry opportunity
we will sell again at 64.75 and move stop to even next time
the housing data looks like it was the cause of the pop the inventory is still
pending lots of negatives which are getting more weight today but also a pile off surprises
better than anticipated leading credence that is profit taking some stocks are shaking off the
negative divergence and still going up.
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
We bought in again
Funny Morgan just came out admitted Goldman is superior.
Morgan does not have the gunslingers that GS has and If the USA is backing you I don't see why not. If the public understood how Gs made their money...
I was emailing a member we both bought in at 63.75 then I moved my entry point down
I sold for a half could have hung on for more. We will look to position from the sell side we have no prejudice for shorting.
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
Members bearish enviroment move entries down a half
Bottom of the channel target 62.5 we need a bearish inventory to believe that
buy side no longer valid
buy 63.5
Sell 65.5
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
One more thing re: sell-off today
MGS has not taken enough risk this quarter and did not get the pay-off that Goldman
has they also are counter opposed on their outlooks maybe Morgan is getting a pass because of reputation but new ones are forged each eco-cycle I got my money on GS
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
if you bought that last dip
oil traded down 64.06 we bought at 64.10 If u bought along as I just reco'd doing so
sell and take a profit this is a trading enviroment
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one bounce so far
I came in neutral a skillful trader could deal from either side of the deck if inventories
are bearish support will not hold and a trip to channel bottom will be next after yesterday's
odyssey to the top
t
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule
Are you aware of the current channel
I see the current channel has a support line at 63.80-64.xx range Im inclined to be a buyer above the support unless conditions deteriorate further
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