Up a half

Gigantic week hope for the membership as well almost everything working except this

new charting software which stole my attention and caused us to miss reacting properly to the housing starts and permits with the citi numbers squaring GE the explosion in Jarkata

Made this the buy of the day at 61

As we are up .50 on the last trade we announced going short at 1:48 you could have done the identical trade it was available for 10-15 minutes longer close to that entry

we will take it off before the close and take the weekend with just the secondary equity account some call selling was done across the board to protect about a 10% drop until August expiration

I gave a lot of great advice this week here's to anyone that listened I started in Sunday

Predicting a huge earnings week and led us through a number of winning short and long trades

in oil If you did what I did you did well

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Still short 63.95

we went short we will cover when we see a point as usual these days

Cit group may somehow survive this has bullish implications as I think the failure was somewhat built into the market and even though this one was up my alley I left the stock alone

it doubled top .73 you can make a lot of money with the right amount of shares on a move like this.

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1:48

Taking one short side attempt at 63.95

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Resistance

there is alleged resiatnce at 63.80 and 64.30 but I see this pushing 65 with any help from the S+P

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flat

I just flattened here-63.90 not ready to short

It is easier for me to buy dips

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Secondary Account Notes

I don't know if you guys trade options but Im fairly bullish on the Steel sector

I covered my short X at 30 monday 37.6 today

AKS I left naked long from the 16.42 area and I have been selling between 19.5-20.5

I feel like there is tremendous upside on this sector but we may get a push up one more retreat and finally go north for good

A good buy suggestion would be to buy the aug 18 calls at on a pull back around 2.5

and sell the stock around here you could leg into the stock and probably get the calls

with a little work u could get this synthetic for free

Im bullish but I will take a free pull back shot anytime

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I am a buyer

I bought on this last dip as 62.87 I believe we will retest the highs I will be flat and consider a short there

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Natty

Natural Gas bounced off the new low with aplomb should have held that 3.27 buy ah well

The new extraction method while increasing supply has also lowered operating costs

That is a bonus

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geopolitics

You can't discount this twin Explosion In Jarkata

Terrorism exists in our world and affect Oil prices that so called glut in inventory

could be a distant memory if any more of this activity rears its ugly head

This is part of the rally in Crude

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blowing past the r2

I am a little irked I missed this run and I have to shake it off We are passed the r2

resistance point and compared top the market Oil is pulling now it has lagged for so long

you had to be ready I covered at 61.35 but it traded all the way to 61 when the housing numbers broke and now 63.6

Hopefully members took note of the ever obvious breaking data and did not have their heads someplace else when it broke that was a call to rally if I ever saw one

AKS earnings around the bend it too has perked up quite a bit

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After being so so bullish

In an attempt to better our resources we missed this run up

Like we said Oil needed an escort housing was strong earning continue to be

Shorts were caught in a Short cove rally

We believe we can start to trade from the sell side now

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Don't stand in front of a train

We covered nicely but was working on this new software and did not make a buy in

this looks too big to me I am not a seller until I discover the cause of this

This looks like a breakout

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Friday

Futures start lower earnings keep surprising others For financials if anyone remembers what happened after March and With all that Govt. help should not be that shocked

We sold last night still short member pricing out by email anon

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Why we sold the overnight

Well I definitely spotted the bear flag and Im glad some of my competitors are reading me I take it as a compliment anyway there is more to it for me

Oil has had to be escorted the whole way up and really obviously has not even come too far

The market may go back up again and if it does it will continue to pull oil but gravity has this

in its grips and anytime to the market lets go it seems to fall right back into the range

we have been trading-yes we resold the re-open we we thinki we will want to be short at least

until the AM this has already fallen .75 from where I sold so I will move my stop as I can't monitor in my sleep. We have some more housing numbers and more earnings

Google was hard to decipher-I expected bad the way it reacted they expected better

IBM solid on the other hand so overall more help on balance We will definitely buy some protection for the secondary account this time rather than call sell If you eat the premium

you cant be mad for doing the safe move

My only real regret is RIMM We beautifully exited with the 80 puts but we should have bought some calls we had even discussed it with a member via email just somehow thought they might get even cheaper that one certainly got away hard to buy here

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keep your eyes open

Some of this data if you follow it will affect the currency of the country where the stat is from

which affect the dollar and since oil is traded in dollars...

Well you get the idea of why oil trading is so comprehensive

Economic Calendar 7/17/09 GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 01:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q2 -6.00% -2.80% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) May 0.8B -0.3B 11:00 CAD CPI M/M Jun 0.30% 0.70% 11:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Jun -0.30% 0.10% 11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Jun 0.00% 0.40% 11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Jun 1.90% 2.00% 12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Jun -- -0.10% 12:30 USD Housing Starts Jun 530K 532K 12:30 USD Building Permits Jun 523K 518K

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new software

we sold at 62.25

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"earnings will drive us a back up this week" that was my title Sunday night when you could use it.

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Earnings Should Drive us back this week

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Here comes the Bull Parade

Be careful now turn on any channel with finance as theme element

you could not find a bull on Monday or for the past four weeks now

they tell you its ok to buy -Hey Guys it's a little more expensive could have used this advice on Monday

Scary how it works

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We were e-chatting with a member

It can be argued that my 60.75 buy was a break in discipline as I had no technical reason per say to make my purchase- but as much as most of my membership may hate to hear this there is something known as a trader's instincts especially an old school trader like myself

Yeah I saw the dollar declining and the market begin but mostly the last one was from the gut

I sold at 62.10

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here we go

Technically there is what analysts call a bear flag developing

keep in mind these patterns are far from infallible then S+P was supposed to drop

after establishing the famed "head and shoulders pattern" and I think we can see how that

resulted.

That being said plenty has been made to keep repeating the current strategy of selling these moves up 61.99 and buying the drops around 60.xx

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Home Home on the Range......

Dumped my long over 61 did not go short there however look like the next stop is back to the s1

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Near the S1 pivot

Bearish commentry making me laugh Crude did not blow through 62 however it did not crash through 58 either that is called a trading range though with this market you would have expected more upside but there was a lot of bearish developments

I shorted near 62 as well though Im not nearly as bearish as my collegues I covered too high at 60.75

and went long on the s1 pivot at 60.30 I will trade right out of that though im just riding the pendulum selling pops and covering for a decent profit buying dips flattening at a profit repeat

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Trade on young man

we were thinking we could get 60 but we covered the short at 60.75

Jobs were pretty good other news was not so there will be some swirling

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Cit is headed for bankruptcy/jobs

Joblesss claims 10 minutes away is one of the keys to the overall feel and key to today's bias

Stay tuned and we will know which way to lean

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thursday

we have some data to digest and keep and eye fondustr

JPm came out soaring we told you like GS they remain one of the last Mohecans and with key acquisitions expected exactly this.

There are some cross current here and as you know we went short last night we think we are gonna slip a bit more but the longer term trend is shifting up

member pricing out forthwith

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we are not gonna fight it

We take our long off at 61.80 and sell one more at 61.90 the futures are down

We will either stop adjust or take the profit here-we think we will get another shot

just trading the night shift. I am someone willing to work well past 11 night after night and start in again before 7 AM I guess you have to love it.

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Seriously good day

We hope members cashed in today I came pretty bullish last night gave u another nudge told u I was long before 8:30 and came straight out and told u to buy after the EIA came

I don't know how anyone could have missed those intel numbers were a powerful tonic

along with manu-data We spoke about the EIA being priced in and that OIl could not resist the momentum of this up market any longer - We went to sleep with a lower bid and a stop a half underneath and our entry was lovely but even if you missed the perfect in there was a much safer almost free point for any member as crude lagged but ultimately went higher

This was a difficult four weeks for many traders today made things a whole lot better.

Secondary Account notes Steel sector gets some play and we get some pay

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eco events ahead-overnight

the bulls came out to play we gave you a very bullish look and then two outright buy reco's

we are weighing which way to play from here keep an eye on these upcoming eco-points

Economic Calendar 7/16/09 GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 22:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q2 0.50% 0.30% 22:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q2 1.80% 3.00% 23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M May 0.30% 2.20% 05:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report -- -- 09:00 CHF ZEW Survey Expectations Jul -- 9.7 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 555K 565K 13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows May 16.7B 11.2B 14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Survey Jul -5 -2.2 15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 93B 75B 17:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 16 15

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Homerun for anyone who listened to me

Im long but it might be a reasonable place to buy 60.xx area with a good or better than expected report u know by the retail we used some gas

Long and strong we will be adjusting stop
Periodically we think it has a chance to break through r1 but we stay disiplined just
Open to the big play if becomes possible

Wed EIA

We await the numbers and members await prices which might change after EIA

just read the posts

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EIA note/Nigerian Olive Branch

More food for thought here Nigerian leaders released a key Mend Player

raising the idea that peace could be brewing in the delta and that opens supply

and lowers prices if so-Also they are expecting a bad EIA number so unless it horrendous

I think its mostly priced in and If it is not so bad with another up day possibly brewing

in the market led by the chip sector that would have to be enough I mean it completely

disconnected as the S+P move back to 910 that cannot go on indefinitely.

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what lies ahead newswise

Economic Calendar 7/15/09 GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised -- JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 01:00 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M May -- 0.70% 07:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y May 0.80% 1.20% 08:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Jun 41.3K 39.3K 08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Jun 5.00% 4.80% 08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) May 7.40% 7.20% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Jun 0.20% 0.10% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jun -0.10% 0.00% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jun 1.50% 1.50% 12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M May -0.80% -0.10% 12:30 USD CPI M/M Jun 0.60% 0.10% 12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jun -1.60% -1.30% 12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Jun 0.10% 0.10% 12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Jun 1.70% 1.80% 12:30 USD Empire Manufacturing Jul -5 -9.41 13:15 USD Industrial Production Jun -0.60% -1.10% 13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Jun 67.90% 68.30% 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.7M -2.9M 18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Mi

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Oil pulls back on demand fears etc.

I cant say I'm not a little disappointed I was kind of hoping for a run that we could get behind they are talking like the retail sales were good but we know better that pop was on essentials primarily if they had been better I believe we could have seen this thing go

and then the legislation talk resurfaced and with the slow down and the Opec business

and the EIA Worry you got pulled right back into the trading range.

I shorted the black gold as I said right after retail came out trade from both sides

I covered at 59.5 on the 60.5 sale missing the top but picked up a point

the Intel numbers were good and the estimates better Stacey Smith Intel CFO paints a pretty picture but kept the cards close to his chest on the EU appeal.

Yum the taco bell off but Intel is the chip sector should have more punch.

this is still a trader's market and none of us should complain about a range like this

buy 58.xx SEll 61.xx wow three straight days that strategy has paid off

Im not crazy bullish or bearish this can go anywhere and that has played a role in the psychology of this trading range as it moves between fear and greed -all members should be getting paid w

trade the range unless we see it make the turn for real -Lots of good news lots of bad news makes traders money-

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As the action draws to the nymex close u cant
Love the behavior of oil move price entry
On buy side down to the s1 from the pivot
Regulation threats renewed contract limitation
It for the third straight trading day stays range
Bound 61.xx-58.xx

"O"makes another negative statement about unemployment he is not helping here
What is that about what happened to yes we can

Asia Disconnect

GDP in Asia Singapore specifically Upgrading its GDP

A new Technical look show oil Might now be headed back up

we will ned to GS results to confirm and will but the second part the retail numbers should reveal much also.

Oil up here in speculation as some risk is "baked into the cake".

Morning prices out by email to members shortly.

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