U guys know I meant SUnday Night

of course you guys know I meant Sunday Night

Don't be reckless with the Natty Futures Purchase do some research

email me if you hear it hit the Canada GAs facilities also we are forced into the October

contract with Natty now we are a long long way down but the October contract has some extra

premium built into it it would have better if this happened after the contract continuation rollover but it really won't matter in the big profit picture should these facilities get smacked the Oct the nymex spiked the price in extended trading so u get the hit u jump in

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hurricane bill

It is saturday and by this time Sunday We will know if Bill has tampered with east Canada
Gas refineries also there was a sure in electricity usage so I think I may get out of my UNG for a profit after all and I will if it does hit double down with Futures Saturday Night this is developing news and this commodity could and will spike if those Canada facilities are hit! and Now it is probable!

hurrican bill back on the scene

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UNG back to the Futures

The Gas fund with its contango problems and regulation problems is not a good play

just buy Natty when the time is right

Natural ETF-week end portfolio adjustments

The natural gas play using the ETF also has a new developing problem as a premium is now being built into the product as a result of it -It is no longer a bet on just Natural gas it is a bet on the product continuing to exist if this problem is not resolved then I will abandon this a way to play Natty Long term it is ridiculous they are killing a perfectly fine product as FINRA and CFTC justify their existence in their quest to regulate and make sure their in "manipulation "

if that is not the pot calling the kettle..... I don't know what is! I m very long and I am making moves across the board to protect right here i reco'd buying 3x power shares this morning take your 2+points that should cover everything you lost in Natty and then some

If you rode this with me it makes sense to protect right here right now

We are still bullish but how many straight line charts have you seen sell em when they scream

buy em when they panic that is my motto Buffet has something similar

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opex

We also should mention that the muckety-mucks from opex are on the scene again today cuts in production will be one of the key topix

Also watch out this 74 area has been tested 72.38 and today 74.25 tested again It can't hold indefinitely i would try at top of range unless u see a cut and if homes come ridiculously bullish dont stand in front of a train but if conditions prevail a key short higher may be the start of a beautiful position as we are at the acme of the range catch two points and you could leave it on multiple day play but let's not get ahead of ourselves everything has to be just so for this to work

ETF Specifically UNG

we have a lot of regulation to deal with as FINRA also has their microscopes pointed
the ETFS do have a fatal flaw as a long term play it has lost 46% while the futures have give back 36% each roll over locks in a loss this is known as the contango curve. We normally shy away from plays like these but it was attractive for it had shrunk so much at first glance.
When the water is ready we will jump back into the futures and we may day trade this a bit as well as we get accustomed to it price fluctuation pattern -P:aid a little tuition here learning subtleties the hard way just because we got close to a 7 year low which we now have hit and pierced and now hover around no bounce no dead cat not even a dead mouse but it will come soon

Friday homes again

Oil is in a n uptrend we all can see this I believe we have to make a run at the highs before a reversal -unfortunately everyone seems to be thinking the same thing

great minds may think alike but the general consensus has been wrong so often when I find myself in the camp I get nervous. Bernanke on the soap box today the german and euro data was all slightly better and we home sales today which can be a market mover anyone up for some 3x proshares today? Bernanke always tries to get an up day but he is running out of room he may have to hint at a pullback of the policy but it would not be taken well if that happened we have to sell there is no real upside he is not going to say they are gonna print another trillion and reduce rates to -10 %. Likely the homes is the more important figure if Bernanke is a non-event but we must pay attention just in case member pricing out shortly

more natty

there will probably be one more push down now that all these announcements of the seven year low have been announced then the bottom fishers have to come Im out right now except for the UNG which collapsed as things got hit late once starting shining the light on the lows they are cutting production seriously now they cant store any more and they get fined if they have excess they are in a tough spot because they have operating costs if they remain dormant they have no choice now-the bullet is bitten- now will the reversal be intraday or many days we are entering twelve down days consecutive session there five up days and 13 down session prior to that so it is no stranger to runs and we can probably afford to miss the first day and catch the next four we will have to see

im already in UNG as I said now It wont be long where the shut downs now will produce a draw in the EIA they have to manufacture it they can't survive at these levels forever- some have hedge deals for like 60% of supplies where they still get 6-7 dollars that wont last forever either

I would guess by next wednesday this is higher but we are gonna have to keep a close eye

Natty owes me now the gloves are off

ECO power/wrap up

07:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Aug P 47 45.7 07:30 EUR German PMI Services Aug P 48.6 48.1 08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Aug P 47.5 46.3 08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Aug P 46.5 45.7 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Jul 5.00M 4.89M 14:00 USD Bernanke Speaks at Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Conference -- --

Rimm good very very good hope you all bought ou all knew i did i shouldnt have to say more than that Natty bad very bad my apologies dead wrong on that one CFTC changes the game but part of the game got to admit I screwed the pooch so to speak even Oil nonevent We are at the nymex close tight range no one has a feel for the direction yet the fundamentals in oil are skewed but you have to sell at the top of ranges mostly and buy at the bottom we are near the topovernight if you are up at 2 germ manu data will move oil but home sales will later the tone back home they will be interested in bernanke looking for hints if he is gonna raise rates everyone thinks he willif he surprises and says it is time to halt the ease then sell off is close

CFTC the culprit indirectly

Regulators have caused the UNG to falter and the accusations of market manipulation have ironically cause market manipulation pressure on the ETF has pressure on the Future

happier Natty trades ahead this mess has to be removed cleaned up etcetera

we will see higher prices at some point not today Im afraid

Natty

I took a pretty serious hit on Natty but I am now going long term on this

inventory was still a build even though less I give as lot of winners so you guys shouldn't be too upset with me but miscalled this one here as natty breaks 3 perhaps 2.75 should be the next target long we are right above the s3 at 2.94 so for a day trade I might nibble one start to get my money backI will average down UNG share 500 a pop a half point and hold until this turns around which i believe it eventually will.

look at the data

The market rallying in the face of this idivators better mortagage worse but overall

the data continues to point up if we got that 10% move down which i don't believe is in the cards yet it would be a buy we bought the dips from mon and wed

How do you like my Rimm Now!

natural Gas

Maybe natty isn't sexy enough for oil traders but If this breaks 3 I am going to park a lot of resources into it as it wil soon

remember what I told you about axioms

"don't short a dull market"

natty numbers out shortly u cant fight fundamentals either
storage i would think is i this any decent draw from the expected build might change sentimnet
which is beyond hopeless so many shorts out there just selling the heck out of this

remember what I told you about axioms

"don't short a dull market"

natty may test your heart

we made our first baby flip on the natty run up today we still hold as contract and will buy it back if it breaks 3 its a bad omen but in the bigger picture where is it really going?
been fighting it from 3.16 and got out neatly today but i have to think we will be higher
at some point start generating some offset capital by trading channel top pops like i said yesterday

more joblessness than expected

Futures make a minor downswing Im never surprised by bad jobs

natty looks bleak here no hurricane bad jobs choppy market but trends can flip on a dime

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A point is a lot but direction is even bigger

there might be more corrections out there but Im glad to see that if our data continues to be strong that we will not wilt just because the Chinese had a bad day. They are not in charge just yet.

The whole world is global now without a doubt but with their market as it is currently constructed

a correction does not spell disaster instantly for us especially with the rules of investment and that such a small number thus far are involved in the trade.

. We are still the lead horse in this race and they say we it will not always be so but until then like I said that yesterday morning that was too much. Whatever the case in Shanghai we are moving out recession and our data and market supports this notion. Have we come too far too fast

Not that far not that fast that is why I keep preaching to buy these discounts as they come our way. Did they just forget how we got here don't be so shocked by how we get back and we are still a long way from even.

That being said Oil has made a nice run 7+ points on nearly a straight line we back off a half on the overnight After position trading I have less inclination to simply wade i and scalp for quarters the risk reward does not make sense their I fairly adept at scalping but I don't particularly like it-I find the stress remains with the right foot on the gas almost the entire

experience. I will of course roll my sleeves up and generate quarters if I miss my in and the market is moving against my overall position to offset losses.

October we wanted to sell we hoped for 74.5 but never got higher than 74.07 and now 73.12 which leads us to the title a point is a lot that is a thousand bucks and it would nice to catch every last red cents that we can but we choose entries here and that is trickiest part of the game

and no one like to choke while we wait for it to reverse almost every bad position will let you out at least once for even even if it moves a two points against you but that is a dangerous game because oil makes those 7 points moves once in a while so a sale at 67 would have you in some pretty deep water about now. 1.5 is my max I can personally stand without taking my meds.

So continue to use stops and usually keep them tight as 25 cents

We have are backs against thew range here again watch the eco-data as it comes if you followed my post last night you know what to look for and member pricing out soon. Good luck traders

hello out there

that was impressive but ultimately we have a breath somewhere all the way to 74.37

is equal to 72.56 and we might have another point to go and we are range bound all kinds of voodoo technical patterns are emerging the dreaded 123 top maybe we have to see

technicians like to matrix or tell you after the fact "i see the empire state building" you get the idea and though we poke fun at the art we use ta as well but you guys know this.

Really another big day you have to think from a trading perspective to start looking from the sell side it has just tested the ends of this too often perhaps the range is still in play

also natty not coming easy if you are unhappy losing hundreds like me waiting for natty

to turn up I had the idea today which i should have had all along and that was to take the spare contract and trade the mini channel maintain along that ultimately pays for itself an overtime thereby could be increased i expect we will be tested there is fear and anticipation that this inventory report like all have been will reflect a build you know this will have some resonance into the oil play as well should it come that way If it does build i may blow one out and buy again lower but Im looking for the draw here and looks like im the only one

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eco-fun

T Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 06:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Jul 1.79B 1.57B 08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.40% 1.20% 08:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Jul 2.80% 2.90% 08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jul 0.5B 13.0B 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jul P 0.20% -0.20% 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Jul P 13.30% 13.80% 09:00 CHF ZEW Expectations Aug -- 0 12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jun -0.10% -0.30% 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 550K 558K 14:00 USD Leading Indicators Jul 0.60% 0.70% 14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Survey Aug -2 -7.5 14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 57B 63B you got some nuymbers to look for overnight action dominated by pacific then divergence ruled by atlantic crude follows the sun

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Natural Gas

Most people think February when they think Natty i believe 2002 when Natty was 2
It mad a run to 13 or so back down to 4 to 15 and such.
But in the dead of the heat and this was the first real week of blistering heat Natty is used to generate power. So a hurricane would be great but truly unlikely as tough as Bill is at catagory4
but it seems as if he will swirl at high speeds up the atlantic coast and maybe smash into Nova Scotia
The run back to 13 well we may have to wait for the winter for that treat but a trip up to 4
could be just around the corner All week long we have been looking at this 3.16 stopped
3.14 stopped now double down at 3.09 got as low 3.045 the channel bottom to 3.19 just under the channel top this channel can be viewed by calling up the daily and using trend line draw tools on top and bottom when it pierces the channel it makes a move when it gets to 3.29 shorts start to cover but let not get ahead of himself

Octoberfest

74.70 is the top we are out at 74.10 we would short at the74 .70 spot that is the target sell zone for the october contract
we must have gotten everyone long somewhere the early look told you china was overdone the money prices said to angle long
we gave a safe 69 with 69.70 as the low but told you we would attempt near there
then we broke down and gave you the EIA not only to react but with what numbers would work
then a re-advisement to buy with the commodity lets say 72 at the most we missed the eia run but got in afterward at 71.85 and urged everyone all should be on the plus side no excuses today

If you missed the EIa play

It went from 71.5 to 72.82 and back to 71.85 on the oct contract


We are bullish buying dips

EIA post report

My breakdown may have helped the read but the announcement came late if not for

I am now seccurng a source straight from the nyse i will hav eit on the nose from now On

the report was bullish as the draw was 8 i told you 6 mbl or better was bullish

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EIa 10 minutes away

a draw of 6mbl would be bullish they are calling for a bulid of 1.1 on the eco cal

but the api draw was big so to keep mo we match and we should run

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how to use pre and after markets/secodary accounbt notes

Both Pre and after market trading for equities can be useful if used correctly

the markets are insanely thin especially pre-market but in an obvious down start like today

and it ca work conversely as well but if you stay close to the offer but make sure it is your bid or offer 1 cents away when the futures head fake and they almost always do someone usually takes

the bait and will take you out

In the case of after market it is a great time and you can often get a greater discount when they

are continuing a sell off or an even higher profit as the froth way over priced after the regular market closes and they have no where else to turn I make many adjustments in both scenarios

Do not take offers or hit bids or use market orders for the most part except when they scream for it or fire sale it you will know the difference

The China Syndrome

It seems to have happened China goes down we follow

Again this week We have been talking about it but their sway has gained weight too much

at this point as the down 100 futures is not a welcome site as my Natty lost value and foolishly I took my Oil short off for only 90 cents when clearly another 1 was waiting i the wings

considering my overall positions being short an oil contract would have been more neutral than

flat

EIA coming up-i guess since we did not sell everything we are are gonna weather this storm

Hurricanes well off shore so no pun intended or at all We are reacting to it

Support lines and resistance lines mean less in the current climate

but natty was cleared at 3.06 and crossing back and forth with little effort

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its too late to share

We just got one off at 72.21 we move stop to 72.11 lock in 100 and see if we can get

back the rest of that 500 futures selling dollar toughening up

the hurricane portion of the oil worry is not in play as bill will stay out of the Gulf

Funny I was hoping bill would disrupt Gas almost forgot about all those rigs

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API shows draw

Amazing set of events really show you how the psychology of the market
the prices come in lower which leads to the conclusion that the fed can keep rates down
and the housing and the germany confidence man it is all so easy in retrospect
I gave u a 66.5 buy reco and should have left it at that as I got caught up in the cross currents
definitely an off day from that perspective as my intuitive and deciphering news abilities were rendered neutral by errands and sidetracks thank goodness My monday Discount shopping spree
rewards me with a huge RIMM score and a not so shabby US Steel buy at 42.17 after market
whoever sold me that is definitely an unhappy camper as it feels like pro vs pro exclusively now
Starting tomorrow Focus will be at a discount as I will be using all the tools and staying sharp
I love EIA days they have been good to us as a group and we hope they continue to pay
we like an obvious number best because even it it moves a half as you react you still get another point sometimes two as you can't be afraid to simply ride the tide
The trend is thy Friend- Don't fightith the TaPE

natty and eco

With Bill ruled out by every weather model known to man

Natty is still a buy at 3.08 Im sorry 3 is cheap now for this too cheap as usual things go too far in either direction

Being held up by both currently

by CFTC and the UNG situation with its untenable premium also bring pressure to the contract

there has been an onslaught of selling and they are almost finished we will need them all squeezed out for this to snap back so we may see 3 but I am a buyer there we may hold several contracts by then

oil breaks on through

Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
22:45	NZD	PPI - Inputs Q/Q Q2		-1.00%	-2.50%
22:45	NZD	PPI - Outputs Q/Q Q2		-0.50%	-1.40%
04:30	JPY	All Industry Activity Index M/M Jun		0.30%	0.70%
06:00	EUR	German PPI M/M Jul		-0.20%	-0.10%
06:00	EUR	German PPI Y/Y Jul		-6.50%	-4.60%
08:00	EUR	Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jun		-1.7B	-1.2B
08:30	GBP	BoE MPC Minutes		0--0--9	0--0--9
10:00	GBP	U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders Aug		-50	-59
11:00	CAD	CPI M/M Jul		-0.20%	0.30%
11:00	CAD	CPI Y/Y Jul		-0.80%	-0.30%
11:00	CAD	BoC CPI Core M/M Jul		0.10%	0.00%
11:00	CAD	BoC CPI Core Y/Y Jul		1.90%	1.90%
12:30	CAD	Leading Indicators M/M Jul		0.20%	-0.10%
14:30	USD	Crude Oi

YOu know what's up the EIA Moves oil and waht the API giveth the EIa could double or instantly take away

housing

the single family number actually was a build but the number was mixed at best no matter how they are spinning it- Also PPI down and HD missed but goes up so the analysts have a had a very poor quarter as far as estimates go they have missed left right and center which really gives you an indication of how befuddled they really are these days.

again depending on the speed of the approach 65 should be a nice area to ride from one more time.

Session low buying in natty at 3.11 risk the 11 cents we should get one day run somewhere

or go for the grand slam and bid 3 psychological support where most traders have targeted natural gas

we have been as high as 3.23 low 3.135 currently 3.15 w have a ton we are at capacity

we have a cheaper way of extracting-Why do our cars not utilize this commodity over OIL?

Want to make a fundamental change?Cleaner cheaper remove dependence- it is all there? It would be revolutionary and it could be done- there is the real one as opposed to the health care folly.

Don't despair bulls even though housing stole a nice sell the pop trade from us today

what goes down will turnaround. if we get to 69 we have to sell oilif we do get to 4 in natty that to must be dumped

I couldn't even reach the web designer last night so we may be going to a new plan as this one despite infinite patience is not working out as glitches remain across the board from webcam

to paypal. Still yesterday's reco was a huge winner so this remains the biggest bargain on the web for now.

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housing starts come badly

void bid sell still good obviously w are buyers back down at 65 support

66.70 to october player

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sell this rally

you have to sell this rally at some point just as weakness was a buy yesterday

the hurricane is completely priced out of natty as they have it most likely near bermuda

but they really have gotten these trajectories incorrect as the science is not quite exact yet

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ironic

who leads now we get good data on our side but /china syndrome still hold sway

future stall back dollar stiffens again

67 is a tough spot here 65 buy 69 sell

im gonna pass here again

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eco-events point the way

Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
01:30	AUD	RBA Meeting Minutes		--	--
08:30	GBP	CPI M/M Jul		-0.30%	0.30%
08:30	GBP	CPI Y/Y Jul		1.50%	1.80%
08:30	GBP	Core CPI Y/Y Jul		1.50%	1.60%
08:30	GBP	RPI M/M Jul		-0.20%	0.30%
08:30	GBP	RPI Y/Y Jul		-1.70%	-1.60%
09:00	EUR	German ZEW Sentiment Aug		45	39.5
09:00	EUR	Eurozone ZEW Sentiment Aug		43	39.5
12:30	CAD	International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jun		13.55B	18.89B
12:30	USD	PPI M/M Jul		-0.20%	1.80%
12:30	USD	PPI Y/Y Jul		-5.80%	-4.60%
12:30	USD	PPI Core M/M Jul		0.10%	0.50%
12:30	USD	PPI Core Y/Y Jul		2.80%	3.30%
12:30	USD	Housing Starts Jul		598K	582K
12:30	USD	Building Permits Jul		576K	570K

what is up what is expected chinese bank lending may push 'em down but we have gotten a few more positive indications and housing could definitely lead a charge back up a bit