hgsi/immu

For adventurous trading or my "vegas guys" only

Immu immunoloigics is in compettition with hgsi
Immu is a cheap shot like hgsi used to be
in this face-off one will be a big loser
so what do I do buy both IMMU can be purchased below 6 use some finesse
dont run out and take the ask the spread in this issue is formidable
if you are long the stock and the calls in hgsi
the winning trade should more than cover the losses from the loser

oil friday

I am workaholic everyone Who knows me knows this

So as it downpours outside in NY My Hampton's weekend is stalled

this setup is the reverse of what has been happening day in and day out this wek

don't get caught up stay with the macro all my membes should already be positioned and should be ready to lock in profits Sonoma nears 19 I got in in 17.xx sell half minimum

this is a good long term product but not a takeover candidate generate some profits buy again on a dip JCG got up to 35.8 we sold some at 35.5 that is 3 points in one day like an oil trade

it might go up more but that was an earnings play do not lose sight of why we made the trade

now you can buy it on the next dip as its guidance is strong but we must sell exuberance

Oil is overbought but as long as the dollar is weak look for a retest of the high

buy dips do not take offers

Again watch the michigan consumer report it is expected to be strong so if it is not it could kneecap the rally

Tech driven you cannot deny intel's number and guidance -personal spending blah

the michigan is the final piece to the puzzle today

Natural gas is in the tank Danny fizzles out storage over the top

I told you about the put buyers in massive numbers betting we will see 2 in Natty

No one has a crystal ball but someone has big ones with that bet very very scary

I cannot believe with September around the corner we would be talking about 7 year low in natty the new extraction method making it too plentiful-it cannot be stored easily

and drillers are against the wall and apparently drilling despite proclaiming they would stop

crazy-they get fined if they can't store it -the boys in colorado i will bring back the post said it at

4 that wall street has a disconnect and has no idea how bad the natural gas situation has become

Thursnight eco data

There is a lot on the plate try to anticipate which news will be good jobs lag so

I won't be bullish on the jobs number for a while -today's joblessness was a different story

you know claims are running out and i believe the number is skewed better for that reason

The mich consumer confidence had a serous effect last friday

I would think in light of the decent earnings report we should see a little follow through

in Jcrew and Wsonoma as well as oil but i believe it will need the market to break out

the dollar is the key again Oil a weak enough green backl oil will retest the highs as predicted

and pull the market along with it

I gave you a lot today and I am going to the Hampton's with my lady and I will make some early adjustments but you will have to trade without me friday

after today no one should have a problem I handed you guys this one this was a thing of beauty

I may load the blackberry but generally i do not like trading outside the war room without a news feed and Im from my NYSE guy and a chart.

Natty will break out but we have a definite pattern and there was a serious amount of put buying on the 2 line...wow some may just many contacts that they need some may know something we don't -needless to say put buying in the thousands of contracts this month on the 2 line makes me deeply uneasy. I want to keep buying the lows and selling out the spare contract

at today 3.26 bought 3.10 each day the low keep getting lower so you have to trade or you will get buried by this-i expect it to dip again but one of these days you can bet we will double and triple and i will be long that day I hope

has anybody traded ERF we are having a very nice time buying at 20.5 this issue is a natty long trem play we have now picked up a half twice so we can begin to just carry this issue on the next dip we buy and hold after the two trades

AIG sell puts maybe?

hgsi long the 20 line

goodluck I am always available for questions from members from email

i know you guys all mad emoney today that buy reco at 70 "this is how we do it"

you have to love that buy!

How do you like the picks

Buy oil 70 last sale 72.7 2700

buy wsm 17 last sal 18 1 point day trade availabe
jcg buy 32.18 last sale 34.18 2points per share day trade


hgsi i warned you this one was dangerous yesterday we bought at 2.06 so;ld half 2.60
today we rebought at .95 and 1.15 avergae 1 last sale 1.35 risk =premium of option purchase
we are currently risking 3000
galaxo has been sniffing around this issue talking 30 as a takeover price i see this trade as spec
take a triple on the next pop on half and ride the rest
if we get that move to 3 we sell 10 we then would have the final ten on for free

oil

We bought back in at 70.8 and now stop there this was the best dip we could get

FDIC report card

You can't be overly concerned by this report this is a another lagger a reflection of what has happened not what will happen this rally has been primarily led by financial so the irony is thick
here C,BAC and JPM and GS have all led the charge
the rally is tired so we trade our entire position like the oil microcosm bullish bias buying dips

Oil last note

70 was a nice area to buy i hope all made money

dollar faltering buying oil on dips

buying the october backat or near 70 going to try to position through friday if I get one more leg long
AIG fundamentals you cannot get calls and puts now being bought up if this thing comes in like 6-10 bucks we will try an option buy out of our price range currently

We are long a wheel barrelful of Citibank they called me crazy when I bought it
both times
5 up 4 bucks and 1.5 bucks on my citi

the market i told you so

With the market down 70 today on good news we will see more trading opportunities like this
this is a summer sell off on no volume with no reasons save that it has gone up well prior it went down I am not saying do not sell pops in fact every single up day I have urged that as the time to set up for now intraday swing plays
we are getting better when takeover plays and AIG rips up 12 bucks
we will suffer corrections but we are no longer in a bear market a great deal of money missed this and will not get another chance to buy when they finally get in it will be time for a correction
wsm i got u in at 17 i am hearing some anxious mebers jumped the gun and bought 17.3-.40
but that is still a winer here target sell 19 don't be greedy take the two points that is a sweet trade on a 17 dollar stock in a couple days
Rimm at 77 we adjusted selling out half buying 5 puts aganst the remaining 500 shares we are giving back on paper some but the trade was a monster we can buy again near 70 because of the discipline

HGSI

glaxo talking 30 on a takeover 80's style trade if you are up with me trading oil
buy 10 sept 20 calls at 1.10 i traded in and out yesterday but took a hit on the last 10 where i rupped at 1.15 this takeover has a possibility and there will be more talk before the end of september this one is for my vegas style traders not the conservative types but a triple from 1 to 3 seems probable before expiration and a grand slam of 9 points has to considered in the realm of things feasible

AIG

this one came across the radar up 7 bucks now up 11 they are calling for 200 potentially and 60
pretty soon last trade 49 up 11.30ish wow we missed that one we would look for an option play here that is a lot of action

ERF again

I have told you about this fund it has a lot going for it - a nice trading vehicle as well
we bought back here at 20.6 we will try to hold but if you get a half point out like we did this morning while the sky is falling I don't see why we would not take it

oil take the trade

We sell at 70.7 that comes out to $800 on second trade everyone should have bought i did not falter or hem or haw i told you to buy and i did as well and now take profits like clockwork and buy again next dip to 69.89 area

over all we t6ake the trade this is an excellent trading range today very orderly

ERF vs UNG

ERF if you guys were up we got u out of that trade for a nice profit and a chance to rebuy after i sold it was bid at 21.09 this is a better way to play natty where the drilling never stops and they have no place to put the gas
I also got u out of natty o time no one should have lost more than 2 cents at most
we have als9o guided you through two winning oil trades as it stabilizes within stopping distance of my entry and with alittle finesse that I expect from traders in my group now within pennies of the bottom
WSonoma looking good
Jcrew play we will see after the close our bets are in
we bought this pullback like x at 41.9 just days ago 46 this is a just a trade steel down in sympathy with chinese steel that got crushed overnight and over the past sessions


3.09 we are buyers oct natty the qg doesn't lose as much or make as much but that is the range
for now this would be the s4 if we measured it out here this is also the critical juncture we stop
at 3 and look to get long in the real contract 2.5 if it goes there

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oil another leg in

this time we buy in at 69.9 stop at 69.60
we are risking 30 cents so we are trying to make at least that move stop of take profit after it
moves past profit

oil

taking my 35 cent profit here i think i will get one more chance to buy

natty

bounced off the s3 at 3.15 now 3.21 again inventory will point the way there was incredible volume of 2 puts bought today probably a protection move just in case but take it for what it is worth the
s3 3.15 is low like 2.65 in september if that level cracks look out I dont think it will again
i probably should have bought one at 3.15 but i was doing too many things at once and decided to wait for the EIA report which is due in mere minutes

buy in

the dollar is strong the market is weak but the sell off is suspect I urge my members to take into
account what is going on in the overall market and we have touched on this point before
There is psychological support here at the 70 level we traded down rather briskly in a low liquidity market so you would shade your bid lower from my reco entry I moved mine down 15 cents
it is 69.94 I have a stop 35 cents below my buy in at 69.85 finesse your trades let us take our trading up a notch many have been with me for months now-WSM looking good despite the market we bought in jcrew as well as the michele obama backed chain reports aftrer the close my price 32.15
there is a trend here in this sector and a little bit of upside left so we move to the winners if we can

no one is in

light volume retreat on no bearish news whatsoever
taking a shot on a quick trade is we profit shade down for the next entry
take a half there are no bidders there are few traders why am I not on vacation as well

natty/ERF

they just gave you a second out at 21.09 erf buythis back low 20's

this rumor has to be true in natty collapses near the s3 3.155

one more leg down and we cherry pick

ERF

This is a good trade I sold for a profit at 21.09 I wil try to rebuy this at 205 as well

natty

I have no idea but I did get word there is a rumor Natty numbers will be bad so do not get in the way of a free fall Im out and will try to position in on a big drop Should have sold at 3.3
I said it but did not
I hope they really smack it so we can get a nice in and get rid of these seller finally

J,crew as well

William Sonoma and Jcrew are both up substantially this past quarter

this upper end echelon of retail is in vogue and they have the earnings and guidance to prove

jcrew has s earnings today

ERF

My alternative to UNG is a fund that got hit once it lost its tax exempt status

but it is mostly comprised of canadian natural gas and is still ver low comparitively

stocks like CHK are attractive but have benefitted from rally and are expensive we detailed the problem with UNG Again it seems to track natty as far as I can see on overlapping chart studies dating back once you factor out the decent that occurred after the tax sell off

overnight

futures`selling off dollar looking good there is some support 70 so far to me this looks like a buy thedip scenario im watching phillipine gdp better than expected

API

The word was out the API was leaked as oil cracked inexplicably nearly 4 dollars south
I was contacted by Maria Coronado who quoted me a price of 100,738 per year for a subscription
to the API. If it was a little more reasonable and did not just get leaked the day before I was
petitioning my brother to subscribe as I thought first access could actually be worth a hell of a lot of money but like I said after yesterday's debacle and obvious espionage and subterfuge situation at the API I cannot even bring the case to him

Thursday Joblessness applications the murky one is back I believe and keep an eye for the EIA
gas report among other futures already up

Today's closed up but should have closed much higher and was held down by pessimism
any more good news we will make believers out of them they will learn the hard way in a short covering fiasco in that event let's give some of our longs out at the very top
we would be helping them it's a lesson really

Macro-data and Oil

I am bullish on Oil for the time being the next couple days line up with macro data that should continue to spin positive I believe gas inventories will also be better for the first time
in ages but we will see if the cuts were enough. Should the dollar start to weaken again another test
of 75 is possible nut we will have a day in the 73-74 area if The data continue then Friday for a retest- they are trying so hard to sell this
Check your history this does not have to correct there are examples and more than one where the market does not correct after a rebound after a recession
We need a reason to correct and more than "it went up too far"
We had a correction remember the pain in June 4 solid weeks of a sell off
the data keeps pointing up so the economist from the financial times that did the piece on the Market Sugar High who was applauded by the CNBCtards
(did you not hear the guys say steel was done and he had to come out an apologize for his idiocy! and his twin who reco'd UNG a lot higher than where we got on board we started talking about Natty in the 3.10-3.31 area )

On Natty we have been ranging and I should sell here but i am not gonna take this -profit
but simply double down if I can at 3.215 (like the 2.81 area on SEPT) this is support
for now if this breaks upward say 3.20 than we have cut through the channel top and we will work our way back to 4 They have people calling for it to continue south and we stop out at 3.00 and wait for 2.5 on the october contract Indian summer or not you sell me natty
at 2.5 on the October I will move to the NG contract at that point and step on the gas
so to speak

ERF and the October Natty

No premium coming out of Natty I am long just one contact QG october at 3.215
that is eight cents or about 175 on the buy in the chart says to sell but I am going to hold and hope I lose money at first because I want to buy 2 contacts down there hurricane danny is forming
but they are saying it will hit carolinas and NJ and Long Island, NY not much in terms of Disrupting gas supplies but further North we have SAble Island and a host of Canadian gas spots
this ERF I reco'd today snapped from 20.49 to 21.09 as soon as Natty perked up. these days
UNG goes up or down based on something other than natural gas prices so I am unimpressed what the cftc has been able to accomplish here. this fund was 63 ish when GAS was 13
but they have scenarios whereby we don't make money if gas doubles under the current
criteria not definite bot possible scenarios I really would be beside myself if I was right for a double and the ung was unchanged I do not want to be open to that so fix it or we leave it alone for the momento.

The october contract has the EIA tomorrow I think we are finally going to see an improvement
as production cuts and shutdowns were made across the board i look to be long tonight and
play for the numbers and if we get real lucky a new hurricane will spark a decent rally
all the way back to 4

another way to play natural gas long term

Symbol ERF moves over 60% based on Natural gas I scaled downm from 20.75-20.55
today my new long term natural gas play

emini contract gas

thsi contact has a financial settlement based on the penultimate settlement prior to expiration
I found this out as this was the first time I had a future expire on me better than selling
this can be used a free shot on expiration day now we know why interactive forbids you to trade last day of expiration

Natty/hgsi/Sonoma

Natty front month puts your sell i if you bought with me oct 3.215

OIl sell latest purchase of 70.8 at 71.3 this trade 3 times today astounding

sonoma 11.06-.09 looking good at 11.54

DIs if you bought 25 at 1.9 sell stock here at 27.19

that nis buying stock for 26.9 and selling it for 29 cents 10 times generates 300

with an unlimited downside potential if all those bearsih knuckleheads are right someday

the advice has been awesome winners everywhere I plugged u guys in

even the lottery ticket hgsi aug 20 at 2.05 that one is risky but right here currently 2.4

u could take it off for a nice trade

Human genome

Symbol Hgsi

I just bought the sept 20 calls at 2.05 last sale 2.50

human genome has some breakthroughs and was 2.5 less than 4 months a now over 20

I bought 20 lottery tickets Im tired of watching this go up without me i sold 10 out at 2.60 leaving me with 10 at 2.05-55o profit on 10 and we close our eyes and dream of takeovers on the last 10

natty

we had you dump one contract at 2.88 now down 6 cents we are moving into the october next

buy in at the low 3.215 then complete the rollover by selling out the near term on the next push up to 2.88 We only hold 1 contract until expiration we expect premium in oct to contact right after expiration we expand back to two contacts and begin trading as we said we will generate 6 cents a trade while maintaining a long contact until december and it may be work

I plan to go to europe new years so hopefully the natty trade will finance some of that trip as we expect natty to be 5 then minimum

Oil buy 70.8

you had two or three chance to buy in at 70.80 two nickels picked up
APi collpase and strong dollar set up "safe trading envir" buy 70.8 -Sell near 72
they have been talking correction so many up days in a row they can't help but right one day
If you are trying to sell this market 1100 -1150
another 15% upside appears likely on the charts tehnically

Williams sonoma

We are late but this stock traded up to 17.9 and back down to 17 where we got in we will sell
at 19
this stock had great earnings and a reasonable forecast

natty trading disney trading

nasty if u are carrying 2 contacts like me(currently 1 ) I sold on that last trip 2.88

I will have my other as expiration looms I will load october next trip down and sell out the near term next blip up

Disney looks great to me -Still I sold my stock as u should know at 27.25 I continue to sell at 27.12 I am hoping to ratio synthetic 2:1 the sept 25 line sell your stock above 27

buy your calls when the stock sells off below 26.6 you can get this trade which makes money in both directions for a credit with a little work not much really as the moves are here twice today in fact if you want just a free downside shot do it 1:1 no risk when buying 25's below 2

when selling = amount of disney for 27 or more

we get our half

Nice money can be made taking half points as well we get ours at 71.3
we warned u to buy below 71 we came out right after our buy and now we escort u out of the winner 71.3 reload below 70.85

trade today to make money

don't expect a one way ride today
trade id you want to be paid
just bought at 70.8
stop 70.6 we are trying to get a half and get out we will sell near 72 in a similar fashion get out

EIA

a slight build is a huge difference from he APi so a bullish number but not a spike number buy dips below 71

new homes up

Tax credit be given the credit for the positive new homes data
the market should pull back as the are calling it a "sugar high"
the market is getting consistent news to support that the economy is reversing
when and if we get that pullback it should be bought Sorry to tell You iMo
June was your shot to get in for the most part X at 30 I sincerely doubt you will ge another shot at that price BAc at 1I know at least one of my members that recognized this as an insane bargain Rimm at 35 unbelievable maybe the buy of a lifetime
F 5.5 we told the world and everyone else to buy and Citibank I bought that one early and added at 3.86 these are some of the deals you will never get again

dollar is rallying oil bid void

the reco to buy at 71 is no longer valid if you bought you can =get out here at 9:36 at a profit of 20 cents

this is a critical spot we might come back as buyers but we need the EIA currently with a strong dollar we have changed bias to beasrish

Natural gas notes/oil scalping

Natty range has tightened 2.82-2.88 not much to be made there

The inventory comes thursday for Gas but today we should get some symapthy directio to whatever way the number sways the api front line was bearish but there was a draw on gasoline and distillates.

Dancing on the tracks in front of an oncoming train a couple scalps have been pulled off here between 71.8-71.4 nerve wracking and dangerous let's wait for the EIA and the home sales

that will be it the market is for all intensive purposes on vacation many traders are too

yesterday's front run of the API is unfair and typical the playing filed has never been level

we cannot fight the tape allow yourself to be lifted with the tide do not swim against it

API it has been said

Im not the only one that believe's the API got out early and was the true catalyst to yesterday's decline-I touched on it but some have called me a conspiracy theorist for this but upon closer inspection the decline without a warning oil gets crushed down to 71.11 that is too coincidental
but

the dog days of summer

This period has been referred to as the "dog days of summer"
liquidity is down
players are away
volume is light
September will pick up this happens every late August and this year is no exception

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durable goods

another good number reverses futures from negative to positive

not great but good 4.9 more evidence a return of the economy

the wall of worry continues to be climbed

Oil

I trade more than Oil but If I had to put my finger on it I would say crude is a leading indicator

as Oil got tired yesterday and we posted after flattening at 74.8 (the worst you should have gotten is 74.6 there were at least 5 minutes it stayed up)

Oil pulling back contributes to the idea that the rest of the market may tag along

and like oil the market has made a very nice run and a pull back cannot be viewed as calamitous

rather a chance to buy in. Today however the EIA is still the key 17 minutes to durable goods

EIA again

there is also some talk that part of yesterday's sell off so if they surprise again we will get
a serious reversal conversely if the numbers are slightly bearish it may be baked into the cake. Traders are calling for a very bearish inventory so get ready
We had more positive macro data and thye market looks tired like we touched on yesterday

Wednesday Pricing

Today once again is an EIA I sent out a an early pricing range but that will be updated after the EIA As usual after the EIA my entry buy or sell will be posted if it is hard for you to decipher
there is as we say the twenty minutes or so as they digest the news this week bodes to be dificult
APi was a mixed number and helped keep a bid under crude after the devastating chinese related crushing of the early afternoon more bad news could send this reeling and we will go with the flow
either way up or down.

Comparing the API to the EIA

We had a build in the API a stark contrasty to the draw of last week by a similar margin 2 mbl

but the back line numbers were better including heating oil and distilittes were not so bad

durables goods amnd new homes and the EIA

Despite the multi-pint correction the bull channel remains bt we play the EIA

if the number is big the payoff will be as well