Market is very predictable here. Stop guessing which direction oil is going and let me do the research for you. The daily outlook is posted premarket every trading day and identifies support and resistance and provides a daily trading bias. You can not trade crude oil with those 3 critical pieces. Without those 3 key signs you are good as flying blind. Having access to that key information is the differance between being the hunter or the hunted.

If your having trouble navigating this market becoming a member can bolster your trading and your bottom line. Uisng the paypal button above is the easiest and quickest way to become a member. If you have any questions about becoming a member drop me an email

lifetime locked in price

Join today the price moves to $40 a month June 1 2009

recap

Ok from a charting or technical analysis perspective we had noticed this morning that when oil was going up the highest price it would reach a slightly lower high than the one it reached previously this is a very bearish or negative signal similar to the 123 top 

If there is one technical pattern you must learn this is the one because this one is nearly infallible - Anyway this led us into a bearish stance for the day  but as members still wanted to trade today-(if you read my post I did not think today was a good trading day as many surprises lurked in the darkness and despite My analysis Which was correct I saw some things on the horizon which could change the picture.)

 I did nothing in reality except buy one contract in Jul at 56.75 one cent off the bottom which I sold at 57.30 to have a relaxing weekend you can't Protect yourself 

against gaps with a stop order-Way too much can happen over a weekend all of my traders should be flat before the after hours close.

According to my analytics report We know we have over 100 readers who are non-members  that read my blog each day(We can even see the city you are checking in from) I honestly do not have enough room to accommodate that many and I would like to be able to publish my pricing so my members can get it straight from the site- we will be publishing delayed as soon as possible - join today first come first serve there is a limit then  we will be purchasing more 
space and the price will go to $40 Per month It is not much for what you get and you should make more than enough to pay for a year your first day of trading

lifetime locked in price

Join today the price moves to $40 a month June 1 2009

(only read this post technical error)OPEX/CPI/DOLLAR FRIDAY WE Move To The July Contract

I am typing fast I know many stressed traders don't want to do this but sometimes less is more
It is okay to lay out when in doubt we are well above our weekly profit goals with some big trading days this week and there are just too many surprises hiding in the corners to make this a risk free experience. It is an OPEX day and that has multiple outcomes often-We  move on Friday to the July Contract and attempt to decipher some of the new month's subtleties. The dollar getting hit but is at a key technical level and the market itself is unsteady. Tight stops  yesterday you could get away with .15 cents and still be effective.   We  are preparing entry points for members-check your emails shortly CPI due at 8:30 inflation is a player on the over market and commodities sentiment as well.
Members do not be afraid to take profits quickly today.

Same post new chart looking at the numbers 11:09 PM

top chart worth as look notice support levels

Only when they shrink. We have heard that technical analysis has economic data already factored in and is the only weapon you really need. Of course that is not entirely true and as useful as technical analysis can be and is in play daily you really want to pay attention to far more to be able to find success trading.  
Common sense is a tool as well. That is how recent inventory gluts were shrugged off and when the same report shows a draw in supplies- oil picks up speed on its  path north.  That and all this talk that the dollar has met its match and will go the way of the sterling as the chinese currency gets prematurely anointed as the new standard reserve currency. Add in a dash of the market abating its recent losses and that pretty much sews it up.  We only gave buy recommendations today no sell at all. We did a flip late last night but after careful analysis drew the conclusion and told everyone that we knew the overall direction that this was a pull back not a a new bear market the only question that remained was where was the best place to buy . We missed the bottom by 5 cents with our 56.60 call.
but if we don't get stopped it was an acceptable and functional entry point. Kind of sorry we sold so after only a point and usually would have stop adjusted but we really hoped for one
more turn before we stayed on for the ride.  Still another nice day and our own profit and loss goals are shattered for the ninth week in a row it is hard to actually complain.
 It is far from a free ride though I will admit an enjoyable one - I finally stopped working after midnight only to start in again at 3:30 in the morning analyzing charts and working feverishly towards our best guess for myself and my membership.  Evening pricing another matter. Stay tuned no rest for the weary.
We should be up on the new site before by June and then non-members can read these publications a day later as it will be published on a delayed basis after that.

June 1, 2009 $40 per month   excludes charter members

jobless claims up

605,000 up on jobless claims-stay the course PPI up as well mixed bag though futures react poorly.
This although higher than market estimates should not be that unexpected
members keep your orders in

We start early in these parts 3:22 AM

We are examining this chart there is a bounce in the dollar-the trading action of the dollar gets respect as it has begun to lead most indicators now with its  effect on crude oil. As far as oil we are in  somewhat of a retracement -  this chart measures the percentage of said pullback from the recent rally- each each level down will  have to be evaluated with precision.  Stand by for emails in the near future

We have been criticized by our peers that  tell me "You are giving away the milk for free so why by the cow"(I still give way more and stay close with all members) The new site will be up soon and we will be publishing delayed after that and the membership is closed at $3o per month and will be $40 per month effective June 1, 2009. The new rate does not apply to charter members who will be guaranteed this price for life as they are grandfathered in. 

oil drops to 57.375 /stop adjust 57.5 off to sleep

Conflicting signals futures don't look that bad-see you between 8-9 tomorrow.
We will direct email members prices in the morning Fresh start tomorrow. we guarantee a $200
profit with stop adjustment those $200's add up after a while.

reversal of position-dollar rally kills crude

when do you sell after a 2..25 point decline ? Whenever conditions tell us to- We bought 57.70 and got stopped out there and sold there taking a short position into the overnight stop back in place at 57.7
dollar way too strong here we might buy at 56.5 we probably will just stop adjust if dollar rally continues
take another look at this mornings chart we talked about the testing of the support line once that broke it has turned the tide here- we became bearish but did nothing at 59.65
and bought at 57.7 only to flip the script
The trend is your friend the axioms have a truth to them

text alerts are available to members just shoot me an email or you may be able to set that up with your personal email addresses

this Pull back had to occur-the long term Lens-Secondary account

Since when does the market go in one direction I know these retail numbers were bad but 
please do not get too caught up in the rhetoric. The market rarely makes a move in simply one direction under the best of circumstances not to mention the mess we just got ourselves out of. A pull back was called for and has started and we may have more to go next leg down I will adding more securities to my equity account. These guys are comical just two days ago they were praising President Obama about his market prowess and declaring the "green shoots" were here.  Every day before that they told you it was a bear market rally. Once they jumped on board we knew it was time for a short correction or buying opportunity as I call it these days Every time the market has a 300 point down swing buy a little more for the equity account Most of the members accounts should be looking fatter and fatter.  On eight straight weeks of upward movement after a 200 plus up day  is not the time to buy it could even be argued that you should move from overweight to underweight when these pops occur but these guys will have you selling at the bottom and buying at the top at every turn if you let them. Buy the dips 
Sell the Pops -Long term we will eventually be higher do not panic- Ok after dramatic rips to the upside sell a little why not take a profit and buy even more stock on dips. We are currently dipping so now you wait or start to selectively add to your secondary account. Buy in stages 
this account is for next year you are not dependent on this equity account right at this moment it was built from excess profits from our Oil trading. Buy the dips lighten up the account when they take it up too far too fast but eventually we will be higher much much much higher

the chart depict the venerable investment banking modelGoldman verses the industrial average over the last 3 years

when i doubt Lay out

We had one of those special trading days yesterday when almost everything we traded worked out and there were many. Today there were conflicting signs but we gave the bear signal and told members to sell after the news on retail or EIA if either came up bearish. We did not trade today yet. But our advice should have helped. Retail came out weaker than hoped for and the sheer gravity of the market pulled oil down with the rest of the solar system.
 We have noticed we have two types of traders and we think we can help both
Some that have experience and I can add to their already formidable knowledge by giving a second look at the equation and the newer trader that should strictly trade with me on my entry points and stops and never waver until the science has been mastered.  We will be emailing overnight pricing after the break tonight.

7:24 Members check your Emails-Join Follow on the site

Check out the  how the lower trend line has been tested 4 times what a timing weapon even if you get stopped out here with indicators like this you will always be well ahead of the game.(top chart to the right)

  If you join follow on the site the area down on the lower right of the post you  will see follow
as a member it is good to join as stop adjustments are sent by email and are supposed to be generated each time I write a post. Email pricing will of course be sent twice daily-And sometimes like yesterday I will take the membership through each trade I make during the day.
you could compare time stamps from the time stamps to your emails to see if there is a lag.

Today retail sales are due as well as EIA-I have actually heard rumors that the numbers were
going to both bad and good. Crude traded back up last night getting propelled y the dollar 
again but with the feeling like anticipation of bullish inventories. Trades up to 59.90
and backs off. They are gonna wait for the report it look like to me. It comes out between 8:00-9:30 Am. Stay tuned and check your emails for new pricing. We had a gigantor day yesterday
and believe most in our group did as well

Dollar values abound./overnight traders adjust stop up again 59.55 oil at 59.64

The dollar must be discussed it is in a downtrend and oil has an inverse relationship to the greenback here. As the dollar gets pounded it breathes new life into Crude-Some argue that oil was lifted to its last bull market by the weak dollar and the same thing has happened here. We have heard some argument claiming we are topping out here as well but far more evidence points higher to me we still trade mind you and as always with discipline employing stops on every trade.     

the chart to the left depicts oil trending underneath we compare trends of the dollar verses the Yen

Today among other suggestions We said sell 60.5-we said buy 58.15 and a couple in between

With the break a half hour away we rethink entries and we look to the spread with one week to go in expiration rolling to July is in the the very near future and we believe in the continuance of the uptrend so dip buying is in the offing as well but should we take advantage of what could be an overnight drift to the south with fears of the Oklahoma facility brimming with supplies to the tune of a more than expected reserves. We used to take this more seriously-Wednesday used to be the day most feared and revered but The EIA although still having an effect on Oil clearly has taken a back seat to the more dominant indicator common sense.  Again despite the talk that we are forced to endure by whatever talking head flavor of the moment- We buy pullbacks and will tell our membership exactly where taking the guesswork out of the game.
Join today there are a limited amount of members I will be able to serve. Click on subscribe or donate to join

monster day now

this buy at 58.15 for the second time  with oil up at 58.85  re-enforces a strong day of trading
sold very nearly the high at 60.5 with several good trades and two small losers 
but we have overall been on the right side of most trades as We make more commissions for my clearing agent than we normally do as we decided to day trade a little more intensely today after a slow start to our position trading style that has afforded us so many positive weeks in a row.
Sometimes you just have to roll up your sleeves and really get in there. We welcome our newest member who is a seasoned trader and will be a plus with what he brings to the table as well the more strong minds will make our membership even more powerful.

long at 58.15 moved stop to 58.67

We are now long as wanted we alerted members and we even were able to pull off  a couple round trip flips before we took our position love this trade-dollar is weak and the inventory has way less of an effect moving stops rather than outright covering so when it finally goes out of the range you are still benefiting from  the larger percentage move. We have been telling anyone that will listen especially members to buy pull backs 
this to the left is the long term look the trend in oil is currently up-even the market's pull has 
lost some of it's gravitational effect

update trading brisk on Tuesday

most members sold today at 60.5 with me and bought at 58.65(some 58.75) currently 59.12
suggesting stop up $59 protect profits we have now made money from either side today
This is a good trading day with reasonable clear entry points we get stopped out here for $350
more but we believe we will get another chance to buy


update 11:20 action  is fast and furious as sell out our long and prepare for one more round flip
it breaks back tour entry point 58.55 all aboard - keep using stops part of the game

one stop out loss $250 still up $1200 plus on the day long again 58.15 told members well ahead of this post so they could buy along if they so chose we are day trading here it is never wrong to take a profit


 

looking to finesse buy in

Sold earlier now stopped out for a thousand chart to the right make 58.875 a buy in spot 
trying to finesse it we may get a little better with inventory (EIA) worries coming up Wednesday 
and trading may reflect that fear-We are just looking to take find a nice spot to get long for the next move upward.

we have some members short at 60.05/stop adjust 59.5 currently 59.30

move stop to 59.5 protect $550

very short term some of my newer members did not get this trade as it is an extremely short term play in fact we are moving stop to 59.80 and if we get stopped out we will take the $250
 We continue to be bullish but it is difficult not to grab a quarter here and there when they leave them right on the table. The larger play stays in tack buy if we get a  decent pullback and take the next train up if you look at this 120 minute chart you can see the areas where we would like to get on board again so to speak

Sometimes making a quarter is like losing a dollar

We are not in the least bit surprised that oil is nearly $60 a barrel  T. Boone Pickens in fact promised it months ago we took some short term scalping but ultimately got a little too pricey and missed the majority of this latest move up even though we have been telling everyone for days that we are going up. We correct our recent mental mistake even though we made money we let the real opportunity slip by and predicted it. Back to basics buy pull backs. This is a screaming buy channel. We will show patience 

Secondary account notes

As all my readers know I buy equities on days like yesterday increasing my Citibank holdings
at 3.86-After all the bearish sentiment you are hearing nearly the exact opposite
from Cnbc and Bloomberg so you see you can't really rely on them or you would have liquidated  
when you should buy and vice-versa it seems like the way they present info you can nothing but watch the fireworks or the destruction. Nobody ever said this was a game for beginners until now because I believe I can actually help a few. 

daily chart

here is a look at the days activity we sold today at 58.60 3 cents off the high

we can tell everyone now we had marked last night and alerted members to resistance at this level 58.6
 
This is clearly a breakout and has occurred because of china ,the dollar and short term inventory concerns are trumped by these and other larger issues like longer term inventories and inflation. We still make money from either side intra-day but we can see where this is ultimately headed.

this is an excellent view of the past 5 trends dating past the climb past 148

as you can clearly see in this view and even much smaller sample we are in a new new bullish channel today's pullback was obscenely modest in comparison to it's current steep incline which we will add that view as well-It's make sense to look at the history to aid in seeing the future

just missed it still charted fairly well take a look at the day action

we wax romatically on what could have been and point fingers at Bloomberg with the erroneous data feed showing the futures up which it turned out they were down this affected the tone in which we entered last night if they correctly showed the futures down we would have shaded our sell order to the bid instead of shading it up a quarter from the offer we were still selling there 
if the futures were up. Like I said it will not be the first misprint and I normally don't rely on Bloomberg  but I was at dinner as It was Mother's day. My range was microscopically close when you think about it and I stand by my bid a which is still on the books down at 56.55
which of course it went no lower than 56.74- the financials were starting to get hammered it appeared at that juncture that oil was picking up speed on the downside as the futures were holding steady but down and Oil was still crashing. At the end of the day Oil hangs tough and we stand by our call that oil is in a bull market and out of the 46-55 range now.-Still after the last eight weeks you guys are used to me just nailing it but we still made money and we still have tonight and the rest of the week.

Around 3 Am OIL took another drop

Oil down 1.36 here and we are trying to gauge our meters after trying to sell and missing our sell entry point by 27 cents the first time and 12 cents the second time puts us in a place has us looking for a spot to buy in it could be a point lower easily oil has come a long way and on a pretty steep incline-We are unhappy that we are not stop adjusting as we clearly wanted to sell and we don't think it's quite over yet. Oil went from fighting it's way down and now it seems to be dragging the market down with it.  To the left is a chart of the current cycles of oil fairly astute observation members we will 
take one shot at bounce b4 we take our entry point way lower 

a little disappointing start to the week

We moved offer price to 58.60 at 930ish but still missed out after the double back of the futures and oil traded up to 58.48 then dropped down to 58.06 had we not had been head-faked by the futures we would not have gotten so pricey instincts to be selling opening was correct but could not get in now chasing is a bad rookie mistake. Back to the drawing board  look to emails in the AM- For next entry point we are in a bullish cycle just the top of a new buy channel so we thought oil would pull back for a moment it's not going down easily but it just broke 58 maybe that was bad data coming out of bloomberg as the showed the futures up then down by the same amount the very next churn it wouldn't be the first time- But a quarter point higher than than the previous close is close. and then having it tip up to .48 after we dropped our offer to .60 again tantalizing but the overall trend is up so we are now going to look for 
our next entry point pssibly from buy side if it drifts much lower.

members just a little high

We sent members a reasonable entry point oil closed at 58.63 and 
Advised a sale at 58.87 with futures up 45 at 6 at 605 futures were down 45 and oil opened 
did not get bounce down a quarter point instead and here it sits at 58.30
I just got in from a 3 hour  drive logic and the buffet news should put some temp pressure on the near term contract-currently no position yet and range is incredibly tight