the new rules are in

position limits have seemed to have an ill effect on Oil the new rules takes effect nov. 09

that with the dollar cause divergence from a market that would have normally pushed Oil through-the`looking glass today

The regulation has to be the weakest of all reasons to sell oil and`will not have a lasting effect so we will stand by the buy channel as the strength of this market and I told you 1050 on the s+P

Oil gave us a nice buy in I would advise buying Sunday here before it goes back up no other news withstanding we will check in Sun prior to the GLobex open

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there are factors that are making the dollar more attractive here

with the dollar so strong we pull back on ourt enthusiasm a bit

the 70.75 was a very good entry and should have been worth at least .75 to all traders in my group if you are noty going to monitor I suggets lowering buy entry points and selling near the top of the channel. 72.9 area

buy 70.25 Sell 72.90 current stance if you buy or sell and find yourself ahead many pips profit taking is at your discretion of course

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We bought this dip

long 71.20

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july employ

we picked up 80 cents onthe overnight play but we will wait for the report to trade today

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Just a trade

overall I am bullish despite the inventory picture as there is so much more like the fed not ratcheting back on the throttle and sentiment and china and the forward look at the pipeline and production cut backs will at some point leave us short of the black stuff

Tomorrow we bet on the jobs so we are looking to position ourselves short on and pop

we have an offer at 72.4 we have had it in most of the day we will take a short somewhere if our offer is not grabbed and we believe when the jobs hit it will be worth a point maybe 2 on the downside where we believe it will stabilize yet again for the fourth session in a row

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traders attention

the jobs number is big it is tomorrow and is likely to be bad they are making excuses already

Romer predicts 100's of thousands of Job losses this should put the brakes for a bit on the current rally sell a little today you can see by the action that pretty much that is what is already occurring the early pop was a nice chance t lighten and if you did after this next pullback you wil be able to buy that much more at a discount

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morning prices

we gave u 70 a morning buy entry all mebers realize I hope that these are guidelines and could have and should have been adjusted i bought in a 70.35 for example

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Prepare for

The press secretary is out preparing us for tomorrow's number and basically doing damage control before the damage occurs has looking buy some puts on strength today you wil hear many letters thrwon at you in the months to come but overall you should be able to see through this all data points to recovery Jobs will lag they always do and for those people Im sure it will feel like a recession for much longer but the market itself is recovering and all pullbacks are a buy stay long in your secondary account

sometimes you have to step away from the percentages because statisticians get lost

X was 140 last July now it is only 45 the rise from 17 seems lofty but in relation to where it was diminutive this will be a story that holds true for many securities If you don't own RIMM you missed that one luckily there are more bargains left

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CFTC

Regulation fears seems to be at the root of this sell off which I hope drops to the 70 area so I can buy

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oilitradinginsider get 15000 visits

A relatively low number as the internet usually espouses much grander results but this is clearly a specialty market

They are claiming the inventory overhang is stalling the rally as jobs come better than expected and after a short pop crude backs down a quarter

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overnight recap

why so strong again nthis morning well if yo watch the item on the eco-cal u would see the german factory gains and the ECB keeping the rate 5%

the qe Fear had diturbed the dollar but after satying pat the sell off the greenback returned

I have been trading the ETF UDN lately just as easy money has been made shorting the buck

Job are around the corner

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Thursday

Pay attention to the jobs numbers and the gas storage member pricing out shortly

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futures the same oil down .50

The dollar's influence illuminated as the futures are exactly the same as when oil reopened at .83 but is now trading at .35 nearly .50 less just from dollar strength the flight to safety is the air

tonight and now wish we held our short as there is no down and up but rather each bounce is a lower high and ultimately this is headed lower for the momento.

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Do we have a mini range?

On the reopen you had one chance to sell so far at .80 the high was .83 and the low inversely is .38. a forty six cent overnight spread between 6-10 Pm we sold at 80 and covered at 55

it got back to 70 and dropped to .38 and bounced back to .52 where we stand now

$250 scalped so the overnight which looks like a slow start is not a total waste

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ecocalENDER

22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q2 5.70% 5.00% 22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q2 -0.50% -1.10% 22:45 NZD Employment Change Y/Y Q2 -1.00% 0.80% 01:30 AUD Employment Change Jul -18.0K -21.4K 01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Jul 6.00% 5.80% 05:00 JPY Leading Index Jun P 79.7 76.9 10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Jun 0.60% 4.40% 10:00 EUR German Factory Orders Y/Y Jun -26.50% -29.40% 11:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- -- 12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jun 1.00% 14.80% 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 595K 584K 14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 60B 71B

Some of the early data may affect the kiwi and then the loony the NZD and the AUd

Back home the gas numbers and initial jobs will be big but FRI day the NFP will definitely decide a great deal

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we sell at 71.8

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Oil and the supply Issue

we took in a weak market and a bearish EIA and still Oil holds 71 Goldman has called 85

fundamentals have said 50-60

the market is still strong overall and oil even stronger continue to buy dips wherever they drop and turn selling near 72 is only ok now in a weak market it will be 73 easily if the market

perks upo

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new out of the way for now

The EIa and API create a wash of sorts and Oil remains in the buy channel watch currncies and markets we sel now using stochastics also as a guide as this is now going to be in a trade range sell near 72 buy near 70 depending on situation shade a quarter but trading is very possible most members are up in this cherry trading set up so none of us need day jobs still

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EIA comes bearish move entries

we had a bulid in the EIA that means we trade the channel now our buy entry down to 69.xx

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Adp worse than analysts predicted

but still generally showing a decline in pace I am not so quick to sell we buy oil at 71.16

again will trade out here at .61 the inverse number and await the EIA

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adp

adp is not the `NFP but -371k is worse than expected crude showed a surpise draw in api

EIa shouls set oil tone as it drops .50 on the adpfuturs down 37

if EIA should a draw like API we have to go up and then OIl might be the catalyst for the next push-My overall med and long term look is bullish but now the talking heads are beginning to talk about stocks going higher and a move ususally u get a light correction once they give the green light it usually means duck

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night went as predicted no play was made

fatigue has goten thebest of us as oil does exactly what we say but we leave every dime o the table oil trades from 71,87 to 70.87 down a dollar and back up .70 cents almost exactly as predicted reacting to ADP and EIA now no point in member pricng before that

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let's get over how I called the data

Last night I predicted that we would initially get a pullback in anticipation of the spending data

followed by a rally from the housing data the jury is out on thinking the API and EIA would cause a bit of pullback on the overnight-great trading opp as we chased aftyre the 70.16 low but caught it at 70.65 and sold it for another buck

A pretty good blue print for the member

One astute member commented that to truly make big bucks you need to commit yourself to trading it and designate a ton of hours to fully benefit in oil trading. Oil is global and trades according to currency and inventory and geopolitics and sentiment and systemically with the overall market sometimes acting as cart sometimes as horse. It has several trading cycles which occur but something can make the price of oil move dramatically at almost any given moment.

We are curently in the early stages of overnight trading calm before the storm

it seems almost pre-ordained to me that we retest the high of 73.38 on this run and if the EIA

cooperates that mark becomes a no-brainer.

The dollar is in a chasm apparently never to return and that alone is nearly enough to ignite OIl.

We also have ADP payroll data and I am leery of that but the majority of analysts are still warnin that we are overbought and unsupported by fundamentals so until they decide it is a buy only then will it be time to sell in earnest.

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ECO

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence Jul 59 58 23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Jul -- 0.70% 01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jun -800M -556M 07:55 EUR German PMI Services Jul F 48.4 48.4 08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Jul F 45.6 45.6 08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Composite Jul F 46.8 46.8 08:30 GBP PMI Services Jul 51.8 51.6 08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jun 0.00% -0.60% 08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jun -11.40% -11.90% 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jun -0.10% -0.50% 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jun -12.10% -12.70% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.30% -0.40% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Jun -2.20% -3.30% 11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul -- -9.00% 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jul -335K -473K 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Jul 48 47 14:00 USD Factory Orders Jun 0.00% 1.20% 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.9M 5.1M

for us inventories but all the us data will lend a hand i tomorow's action

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oil how low will it go

70.16 and bounce shows us the support at the 70 level we were hoping for a trip into the 69's which would make a buy entry less risky per say but if housing comes strong we do not think we will see that bargain today after all even though personal spending was done "worse than expected" obviously it was completely expected as oil ticked down and bounced straight back

in today's "phase of consolidation" it is more like a breather before upward resumption

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Cash for clunkers

Steel groups and oil groups should be bought on this dip

personal spending sown worse than expected as expected if you know what I mean

so little down tick there cash for clunkers is gonna make for a steel buy opp

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A chance to get back in?

The financials get jelly legs a day later as they realize the implications of a Ken Lewis being ready

with a heir apparent. We are not fussed about this back off the 1000 s+P line oil has touched 70.25 and we think we might get into the 69's where it might be a buy for the next

inventory report we have to take this news as it breaks but a buy on a dip might be advisable

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bad news abroad bad news home

the tuesday correction is at hand -the aussis looks weaker worse retail sals there

the dax gets hit BMW has poor earnings and a bad outlook

Personal spending can't be good as we said yesterday so we are about to think another leg lower

housing may surprise would should cause a bounce followed by inventory fear which should seal the pullback towards days end. Oil is back down a buck and futures are down 52

S+P took a lot to reach a1000 a pullback is not that unhealthy

the market decides that we are correcting this session more than likely

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oil trades don to 70.5

the currencies are still pushing oil tradeds down to 70-.5 confirming that it looks a little long in the tooth the futures are `down so we`expect anther dip now

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we buy at .16

we are closer to the top of the trading channel than the bottom so you have to be leaning toward the sell button-Don't tell the steel group this as x rally's well after the market close

we are long at .16 our stop is at even

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we got a lot of data so It gonna be some work On Tuesday

We are 70% thru earning mostly positive the eco-data save jobs has surprised to the upside on the majority personal spending should not be a positive surprise but I believe housing will continue to impress the weak dollar is strong influence so if that continues and it might as Aussi data is up first we should see an early overnight rally followed by a german push from the DAX then a softening leading up to the spending data and a help from housing

Once we hit the '09 high or near it we will be at a heavy resistance line and it will take more to p-ush it through and if it does not come we will sell as the API aproaches later in the day inventory fear may reappear and cause a much needed pulback like I said a lot of data to interpret at least I came in and gave you a straight line to follow today and last night.

This is complicated business you did not expect that everyday did you?

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Lets talk Volatility

The market has risen dramatically and typically option volatility or "tao"risk drops with and advance in Prices. This time the vix have steadied which will have to be watched 25.xx levels should also help our members not be afraid to use puts or calls to hedge positions that they do not want to blow out. Monday can be anomalous so let's see tomorrow but if we get no correction than we are getting a statement from the Option consensus historically a pretty savy group that a correction may now be imminent. However it should be noted that most smart money has been wrong about this rally and have ben saying all through these two weeks that we have gotten way ahead of themselves but if you were short for the last three weeks than chances are you are not ahead of yourself but behind the eight ball.

This latest knuckle head is using phrazes like "when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold " The wells Fargo guru must lhave been stuck in the vault this past year because things are Global more than ever and China is on the way to being #1 market cap wise

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2:50 Oil trading at 71.49/TOnights cal and what to look for

Oil has ended the open out-cry session and now has slowed and is now trading in step

almost with currencies and the S+P

01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.50% 1.00% 01:30 AUD House Price Index Q/Q Q2 2.00% -2.20% 04:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 3.00% 3.00% 07:15 CHF CPI M/M Jul -0.50% 0.20% 07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Jul -1.10% -1.00% 08:30 GBP PMI Construction Jul 45 44.5 09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jun 0.20% -0.20% 09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jun -6.60% -5.80% 12:30 USD Personal Income Jun -1.00% 1.40% 12:30 USD Personal Spending Jun 0.20% 0.30% 12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jun 0.20% 0.10% 12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jun 0.20% 0.10% 12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jun 1.70% 1.80% 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jun 0.60% 0.10% On the overnight we have data that could affect the AUD which holds sway over the OIl contract housing and spending on tap for tomorrow by now you must have noticed that most surprises are bullish these should start to be less surprising as the economy has turned the corner earnings and now eco-data support this statement Oil still must be traded we are sellers for now 72.5 buyers 69 for a trade here 71.xx \

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chart

Ma

the chart shows the headfake call to sell at 68.xxx and how resitance is now support and maybe we sell above 72.2-.4

and buy now in the 69