Friday, July 10, 2009

Today's special try it for one month

Today try a 0ne month trial for $40 and see how you like the service
dire`ct email pricing at least once daily
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you cant like it





Action is bad right now mebers stand b for pricing We sold before bed at 60.40











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Thursday, July 9, 2009

wow-things look very very bad right now


Something just happened oil; was 60.48 at 10.27 at 10.28 it was 60
Have nt figured it out but things looks bad Im tried to sell at 60.48 and missed
now Its .50 less I am looking for a pop to sell












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60 right





Listen members Crude looks broken but none of it makes sense but never has get behind the psychology -Events matter sure -fundamentals of course even technical analysis
but sentiment means everything in this game . the jobs were a little better and nothing
last week jobs come out bad as expected and 13 points straight down
Gasoline has been ignored as stockpiles grew for weeks on end but once sentiment changed then and only then it mattered.
When the wind change again and it will not be long you will see news will be the catalyst
but sentimnent is the true fundamental












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the price was off the bias was right



here are the some of the events
Economic Calendar 7/10/09PrintE-mail
GMTCcyEventsActualConsensusPreviousRevised
01:00AUDConsumer Inflation Expectation Jul3.20%--2.80%
01:30AUDEmployment Change Jun-21.4K-20.0K-1.7K-5.1K
01:30AUDUnemployment Rate Jun5.80%5.90%5.70%
06:00EURGerman Trade Balance (EUR) May9.6B9.0B9.4B
06:00EURGerman CPI M/M Jun F0.40%0.40%0.40%
06:00EURGerman CPI Y/Y Jun F0.10%0.10%0.10%
08:00EURECB Publishes Monthly Report Jul----
08:30GBPVisible Trade Balance (GBP) May-6.3B-6.7B-7.0B-7.1B
11:00GBPBoE Interest Rate Decision0.50%0.50%0.50%
12:15CADHousing Starts Jun141K130.0K128.4K
12:30USDInitial Jobless Claims565K608K614K
14:00USDWholesale Inventories May-0.80%-1.00%-1.40%
14:30USDNatural Gas Storage75B85B70B
I said to sell at the trend line which is resistance and only to stop adjust I got stopped out on my second 60 buy
but tried and missed buying 59.5 -where I was stopped


Trade both sides here adjust your buy in lower Oil will go up the data is pointing up the morons will change their sentiment soon. Those jobs numbers were good of courte retailo is bad savings accounts are up people have their money their are enough signs not to believe we are looking at a march 9th correction -I will buy into this weakness











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Thursday the much awaited uo day




i remain long members pricing will be out forthwith












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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Direct Email

This site Wont be accessed by my rivals who read me daily just as I used to -In retrospect using a Russian web designer wasn't such a great idea as progress moves slower than a penny stock some ex-broker of yours recommended to you.
I use the expressions row against the current and guy smiley writes swimming upstream
I rolled up my sleeves and told u to sell when you could today and do this often I
emailed my impressions after the IMF and after the EIA I said sell in no uncertain terms
These are the calls you definitely follow this isnt some counter trend pivot point this is a instant breakdown of a fundamental event know the difference and you will score right next to me a whole lot more.
I know I have been stopped out right along with you many times but overall the calls have been solid selling at 61.6o was just the right move
Oil will be up on the seventh day and you should get another chance at the 60 area again so if Im stopped at a profit I will try another time if it breaks that level and it might eventually 54 cpuld be next












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Adjust stop



If u bought with me at the 60.0x area or higher 62 is now resistance so move stop to 60.5
to ensure profits and sell and reverse it we make 62












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Oil and the secondary account


One of our members turned me on to this site but it is very helpful for keeping track of events for overnight positioning as each piece of news breaks how it affects that countries market affect its currency which affects the dollar which affects oil.
conomic Calendar 7/9/09PrintE-mail
GMTCcyEventsActualConsensusPreviousRevised
01:00AUDConsumer Inflation Expectation Jul--2.80%
01:30AUDEmployment Change Jun-20.0K-1.7K
01:30AUDUnemployment Rate Jun5.90%5.70%
06:00EURGerman Trade Balance (EUR) May9.2B9.4B
06:00EURGerman CPI M/M Jun F0.40%0.40%
06:00EURGerman CPI Y/Y Jun F0.10%0.10%
08:00EURECB Publishes Monthly Report Jul----
08:30GBPVisible Trade Balance (GBP) May-6.7B-7.0B
11:00GBPBoE Interest Rate Decision0.50%0.50%
12:15CADHousing Starts Jun130.0K128.4K
12:30USDInitial Jobless Claims608K614K
14:00USDWholesale Inventories May-1.00%-1.40%
14:30USDNatural Gas Storage--
As you know We covered and reversed our position at 60.02 and have a sale targeted at 62 mainly because of tech. reasons but two k is a nice round number my oil trading saved my equity account which was accumulated from profits from oil trading and I do not wish to reduce my net worth I chose undervalued stocks like x as they can be systemically(not always) hedged with oil when necessary and when the market is unsteady it is easier to pull the sell button when you are heavy long he steel group

My favorite stock is rimm as you might remember I used an 80 Put and got out just in time as it was a clear exercise by expiration -I took a shot at 68 and got out almost even I see it touch 63 but Ive sen this touch 36.x so don't underestimate how far down they will take this one use calls
around 60 or buy stock buy put (synthetic call)if the pricing is more favorable.


Ninja charting has failed me I blame the jinx on one of my favorite members since I never had a problem until I told him about the program - a conspiracy theorist might say they did it on purpose because it was free.

Members got a direct email worth money today i was on that EIa I hope you boys and girls listened! Everyone has an off day once in a while and yesterday was mine obviously.








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I gave you the play

That should make up for yesterday I broke down the EIA as bearish told you to sell I sold 61.60
bought and went long 60.02 short term bounce expected











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EIa bad on gas



I said sell they ar3 paying attention to gasoline Sell any pop when thye number hit I went short at 61.60 I have a stop in place and a bid at 60












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IMF a push



A push is a win here
The IMf report seemed as expected but at least it wasn't a disaster
They show the need and desire to adjust as needed
now it is all up to the EIA











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this was manipulation or sentiment

The CFTC has suddenly realized that Oil does not trade on Fundamentals or now they have realized that they can change the rules at will.
Listen to this Politikers he has as much undertstanding of the Oil and gas markets as I have






IMF world outlook any minute a bad onecoupled with a bearish would suggest the first seven day losing streak in a while for crude












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6 straight down days

As I mentioned one little bright light after last weeks bad EIA and worse NFP
(It came in exactly as expected but sentiment changed and oil trades heavily on psychology)
The EIA revised its number up for projected consumption as I posted previously.

The Alcoa CEO talked about business back to usual in China and stabilizing in the US
Expectations are low now -The stimulus package is like rowing against the current
stop spending. The Private sector has stopped look at the other breaking news about savings
that also helped crush the market last week.











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blo

Weekly change in inventory as of 26/06/09ActualMarket ExpectationPrevious
Crude oil -2.80 mmb-3.66 mmb
Gasoline +0.90mmb+2.33 mmb
Distillate +1.83 mmb+2.90 mmb

Comparison between API and EIA reports:

API (Jun 26)
EIA (Jun 26)
Actual
Inventory
Previous
Forecast (using API's inventory level)
Inventory
Crude oil
-1.40 mmb
348.3 mmb
-6.82 mmb
-2.19 mmb
348 mmb
Gasoline
+0.77 mmb
212.4 mmb
+0.21 mmb
+0.76 mmb
212 mmb
Distillate
+3.42 mmb
158.0 mmb
+0.72 mmb
+3.00 mmb
158 mmb




these are the api and the EIs increased demand I am buyoing on the trendline




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Tuesday, July 7, 2009

here is a look at asia news coming tonight

I bought at first at 62.58 then sold at 62.50 then bought at 62.20 after careful consideration 62.09 is the second to last place to buy based on technical reasons

we are now eleven straight points down I thought we would get a head fake bounce to 66
I was wrong and It cost me $580 so far. Euro-asian machine orders look horrific which is not good for the Yen which has been the only currency holding its own against the greenback
that Russia and China are so jealous of see where there go when trouble strikes running to the buck
From a trading perspective Oil should throw at least one up day in here but we have seen longer stretches than this in one direction Man would it have have been sweet to sell at 73.38
to that ridiculous late nite buyer last week and still be stop adjusting now
If we get stopped out on this one we may have to scalp for a couple days to cover today
I hope it does not come to that. Alcoa Spiked the CEO claims he has good news out of china
I bought a little he strikes me as an optomist but not a liar.





Economic Calendar 7/8/09PrintE-mail
GMTCcyEventsActualConsensusPreviousRevised
23:01GBPNationwide Consumer Confidence Jun5553
23:01GBPBRC Shop Price Index Jun--1.30%
23:50JPYCurrent Account (JPY) May1228.1B966.3B
23:50JPYMachine Orders M/M May2.40%-5.40%
23:50JPYMachine Orders Y/Y May-34.40%-32.80%
23:50JPYJapan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jun2.70%2.70%
01:00AUDWestpac Consumer Confidence Jul--12.70%
05:45CHFUnemployment Rate Jun3.60%3.50%
09:00EUREurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 F-2.50%-2.50%
09:00EUREurozone GDP Y/Y Q1 F-4.80%-4.80%
10:00EURGerman Industrial Production M/M May0.50%-1.90%
14:30USDCrude Oil Inventories-2.8M-3.7M





























































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I just can't get enough

One last purchase at 62.58 right above the support line stop moved to even











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not my day

Tried to get a little cute a got stung twice now My price target is 61






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one stop out





One last buy attempt before selling and targeting the trendline of 61
63.5 tread lightly












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tuesday take some profits




I expect a bounce today but this is not over use this bounce to protect if everything appears to be rallying do some protecting with put purchasing or use an ETF that might protect the portfolio.


Oil looks like it will get its bounce but Im not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet we will likely return and test the trend lines but perhaps not today



Member pricing is out but I bought before the close










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Monday, July 6, 2009

Attention Please

















Sentiment and perception we love that about oil right guys -Who did not not see that sell of coming? I got out of the way I had an excuse computer problems the best I could do was calculate the next level and at least I sold and If my readers are watching they should have picked up that easy dollar.
the jargon about what and how and where oil should be is being bandied about from Russia "the land of Lawlessness"(i would count my fingers after shaking hands with Medvev and any deal struck will hold no weight-Russia is like the wild west was right now almost anything goes.
The French and BRits have also weighed in calling for a curtail to market volatility. How do they propose to do this? The rhetoric is being thrown about so fiercely almost anyone would be confused at this point.
When a vehicle which trades on the psychological as much as the fundamentals and there is this much confusion just go back to the basics.

Remember this pullback is a normal retracement until 61 is violated. 63.5 Is tech support
and If the dollar should weaken this will turn around quickly. we probably have a couple3 more days of weakness in front of us.

How about that Joe Biden. Note to Joe: we all know you guys don't really understand this economyIt is a many headed ever changing hydra that is more complicated than the greatest geniuses of our time can truly fathom and usually admit as much. but It really is not helpful for our vice-President to come out and admit it.

we took a shot here a t 64 for a trade but we may go short we will let you know














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same drill sell thye pops america










Ast night we had it pass 65.13
but choose it once again a place to sell on the way down and flatenned out gain at 64.21.
You will have to pay up for put so look into lightening your positions if you do not plan to cover the loss in your long equity positions by legging in nfrom the short side on oil by selling rallies here we show another $900 being genrated and it looks like we will need it judging by stock valoations this morning













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Sunday, July 5, 2009

here we go yo


Sold at 65.13 bot back at 64.75 .38 cents in my Way to start a sunday and we will be looking for more trading-heard something about chevron pipeline trouble could make for some fake out to the upside sell strength u for the moment futures are getting more than verbally abused
and sell velocity is stronger than buy-Still secretly we all know Im looking for that sweet spot to buy and just stop adjust for two days ah that would be heaven right now it's way too hot in here so keep selling the pops por los momentos!









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holiday weekend

I did'nt get such a wonderful price but sale of 65.13 with a half point stop makes sense with so many steel stocks in my collection right now.
X -AKS - at good Prices mind you 
but clearly would have been nice to sell these a couple days ago as they IMHO will be screaming buy on the next dip. This group caught four buy rec's and went down JPM-keybank-Citibank- and Morgan all came out 
guns ablazing on this group Im still ahead on my AKS but I hate to sell it Im gonna trade in and out of Oil looking for when the turning point is here and then ride clyde right now the futures down and the currencies getting a beat down "Compton Style" the time will be nigh to buy and I want to be there when it is












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