Saturday, March 21, 2009
Friday, March 20, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
the other shoe
this baby is in an uptrend and will occasionally make violent moves that will leave u bruised and bloodied if u leg in from short side without a stop in place. the buy channel keeps evolving so for tomorrow sell at 52.25 but buy back 1/2 to 7/5 point without feeling -this is no joke -take profits or there will be none to take at all-stay with the market when it is moving up it is not a good idea to leg in from short side- even with excess supply "the other shoe has dropped" this fed buy program has changed the game-the way oil moved up on all this bad news it was like someone
knew this four days ago conspiracy theory aside money can still be made in bunches with expert placement couple with risk limitation
check the chart
there is still a lot of oil in supply opec so sell at the top of this buy channel
we are starting to feel that this flight to commodities is losing it's luster so take a small short 51.9 and cover for a half to one when possible
buy channel
here is a recent chart on oil you must trade this buy channel as it guides us through profitable trades- intiate sell at 52 for now leg in frombuy side at 50.35 or lower
buy the dips still !
be careful and please take profits methodically freinds!
i will say it once more place your trade with an immediate stop one quarter point against limiting risk to $250 take profits at $500 or more reset trade again we must pay attention market may get shelled it is due but oil is strong our 50.53 buy in 10.04 trade it sell between now and 51
and our day is off to a great start of 1500 plus -12 commish not too shabby
that was an easy thousand
Or more if you let it ride good for u if you did my job was to identify the sell point and tell where you can make at least $500 stay tuned and i will keep you posted on all these trading op's
top of the buy channel
the channel ke moving up but we have eps moving up touched the top at 52 sell here for a trade
stop yourself out 52.25 take profit anywhere between 51-51.5 wherever your comfort level is
this is not over but as traders we must trade
thursday why fight it
go with the flow peopl this is a change in sentiment boone was right buy on dips sell
when you score points i will keep you posted technically we are overbought the news makes no sense but the writing on the wall shows us that the direction is up
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
bad report eia
news was not good so it appears rally in oil has subsided for the time being sellin g strength is the key to successful trading today 50 for may reasonable short entry point
EIA report everytime
this report is primary a bullish report will send oil north regardless of SP a neutral relegates oil back to the s+P and bearish report for me could mean 45 or lower
We are bearish for now on strength but this report looms and must be paid attention to expecting it at 9 after oil commits it is good idea to just go with the flow don't worry about getting the lowest price or highest price let's make sure we consistently book winning trades
stop until you drop
i advise letting oil come to you here with the use of tight stops if you pick your spots carefully you will be way ahead in the long run-today for instance we see 50.63 as as sell point at the top of the buy channel and most likely you will get a half to point off of that whatever your profit parameters are take it religiously if it drops a point take it and regroup waiting for your next opportunity -it may go against you but if you use a quarter point stop u will only lose $250 if you handicap effectively with you will book the win far more times than the loss-this is the true formula for successful trading -it even works if you drop it to a half which should have you winning at an even higher percentage -if you don't use stops your cash just drops
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
tuesday night
you really have to be careful here i want to import this chart so you can see a true buy channel
in full effect you can see how it came up touched the top and retreated it has done this many times but if EIA show a draw this contract is ready to move up or down violently here
i bet down but wouldn' trying t0 sell below 50 trying to top pick if news is neagtive showing a glut jump on the sell train it will be accelerating file://localhost/C:/Users/b/Desktop/chart4.png
book another 40 cents
Successful traders try to remove as much as the emotion as possible from their strategy
so if you have a profit guideline and it hits take it mine is $400 I try to do 8 flips a day
we just set up another
oil looks strong up to 48.75
this is a resistance point we are hours away from API which will then hint at EIA for tomorrow
which will create next trend trade for half stop yourself out by quarters you will see a nice pile of money by day's end
range extended to 1
all pundits are calling for a pause in the rally-these johnny come lately experts always read yesterdays paper so to speak we need a peek at tomorrows headline oil jumped to 47.60
so even with dow down 27 points FOMC meeting should have bearing on overall market
oil seems to only be affected positively by dow here maybe somebody has heard API numbers ahead of us- irrational trade range strict use of stop orders limit losses to half a point
many dollars to be made in meantime as oil ranges 46.60-48
900 update
Will common sense actually return the good news about anomoly price ranges is that is allows season intelligent traders to make money 46.60 shift trading range we see support 46.5
but once that cracks 45.75 then we should be off to races but if you have a strong stomach
you should be able to scalp $400 (40 cents a contract) for a while before this scenario plays out
housing starts up 22% -ppi up.01% trading range update
relative good news in housing but for oil ppi was lower than expected it is more sentiment
but if there will be less inflation that applies to oil prices as well
you have to tread lightly but sell 47.75 stop out 48.25 risking $500
to make $750 or more
short short term buy 46.80 sell 47.75-48 i will update when this is no longer safe
if futures or djia go minus 50 pull plug on this gambit
as my readers know i am not a believer in this particular rally even though i am bullish long term for oil there is not enough data to support latest run up-technically it s has come up and stopped on a dime-it
St. Patrick's day massacre
dow up 140 oil follows dow down oil stays up- futures rally oil shoots to 48
no real news even a little bad news-oil is fickle the chart is torn 49.70 is my heavy sell re
but this rally is bulit on air keep your eyes out for API estimates if they show any slowdown or slack in demand this oil puppy will run south in a straight line until then we let the virtual pyramid continue just make sue you have some way to get down
Monday, March 16, 2009
winning and losing part of game
look at the chart crucial spot here it it breaks north we could see 50-if not we just may have turned the corner in this buy channel ending the northern move for now
The lack of cuts was extremely bearish short term and was shrugged off by the bear market rally file://localhost/C:/Users/b/Desktop/chart4.png
watch the s and p
market sentiment and bernanke have thrown a monkey wrench into sell off but there were many chnace to cover at support 43.72- maybe one more point to upside chart looks south sell at 47.72
with a half point buy stop-this is up on not much solid
Sunday, March 15, 2009
OPEC SAYS NO CUTS!
Or so says the online wall street Journal report that just came out-if this is true this seems almost too easy which of course makes me uneasy-but i see 46-45 as sale are right here
a cut was built into this rally and it is gone so that must come out
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