Midday report-most of the action is over for now

I was positioning myself from the sell side and went to bed short Last night 

when I  awoke I had been stopped fro a loss at 70.80 and Oil was trading at 70.60 and before I was done 70.10

It then retruned to the  .60 area where it bounced around I resvised my morning pricing and sent a bearish report before it dropped below 70.5 now it sold all the way down to 68.81 and back up to 69.25 where we stand right now.   

My direct Email came in this morning check it against time and sales with just enough time to sell and make money.  That is a live update you can use join today 

Last chance today only before the new site opens at $40 per month if you want to try for one month offering  A  one month trial today only at $40 enter in he donate section instead of subscribe to try it out and se if it is a fit.

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buying and selling between 69.05 and 69.45

Down here legging in from buy side the sell trade should be in the books and everybody well

ahead 

For potential member live email direct pricing with a trading bias with live updates

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Several data Points being digeted

the Chart said SEll at 70.6 area 

Savings data said sell at 70.5 area

Consumer confidence up but dismissed 69.75 area

China talk of Yuan replacing dollar as reserve currency bad for market

but also bad for Dollar which is good for Oil 

Careful selling down at 69.1x area unless market gets pasted We turn buyers here 

Say S+P  915  or better    trade out when you get profits because we should go back and forth as we have been a bit

The trend line comes back into focus after adjustments 

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Savings account data caused us to lean bearish

Bad data for the market came at 8:29 I sent you guy an email and  told I was short and beasrish 

on this report

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OIl clips Can the trend be bucked

A very sensitive technician gave us the "Wykoffs   upthrust theory" claiming Oil was in phase d part 17 and will be in correction very soon so stand by this was shortly after being dead wrong on a head and shoulders pattern at 69.7. an interesting reversal pattern  and the story only works if Oil cooperates and that is a big if.  And we will not soon forget the Dark Cloud Cover he announced before Oil went up 7 bucks. I'm sure as a trader this person makes money but technical patterns cannot be followed blindly and you should follow up your reports and explain to your readers when the landscape alters because bearish bias need to be 

explained  for the people who follow or they may be fighting it the whole day or week while you have safely changed your mind. I have met my weekly goal despite the half thrown away on this folly .

if Nigerian Rebels continue to attack the pipeline they are already disrupting output so much that The President has offered amnesty to the Militants if they stop. the President is negotiating with rebels not good in my opinion and I believe they will want change not just to get off the hook so to speak Why go through all this for more of the same?

  The Problem with gauging geopolitical risk is it is nearly impossible to discover until after the events unfold.  So best guess becomes the order of the day.

  the chart on the left shows where I just got short on the way down at 70.7 all three charts gave me a sell signal so to speak. Members wait for pricing

Under the current scenario oil climbed through 71 again currencies appear up futures slightly

down and now oil has dropped all the way to 70.10 while I have been writing

I 

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trend line buying for beginners

Experienced traders bear with me as I am breaking this down so all can understand

This type of trading would only be used in days I give a bullish stance

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RECAP into the overnight/technician

I have a had a great couple days but today I came out with a great game plan and told you guys to buy the Trend-line but I reduced my bias after the bad Jobs report to neutral when it should have remained bullish-I  still told you and illustrated where to get in on the buy Side on the trend line I drew and I published the chart with updates all day long.

  I try to take as much info but sometimes other analysts can throw me off- I told you about the head and shoulders pattern and warned I thought it may break out-This guy had me cautious 

Selling then reversing at the 69.97 area when I knew in my heart that I should be long.

Currently I am short one contract My portfolio is so heavy with material stocks I feel that I am almost hedged. A technician is not far from someone who reads ink blot tests always seeing what that they want and usually after the fact. I use technical analysis but economic data is higher in my pecking order. I gave a lot of help again I just should have kept the bias bullish

and never reduced my  sell entry. 

  Overnight note NZD came out with lower growth shouls smack thye kiwi and push the greenback

  

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3:20 wrap

I warned everyone Sunday night about this Nigerian Situation they attacked another Royal dutch Shell pipeline -the was also a forced short covering rally i effect as panic set in they were very very short at 67.5 and lower -I told you guys to buy at 67.18 and did so myself

We are in a new range remember 47-54 well this one is 66-73 and We are half way to selling end of it

all  signs point to lower the jobs were bad not good GDP was a wash. I sold but I will try to get a feel on this geopolitical risk it is to be taken seriously in terms of oil price?

When  it wasn't reacting to the currencies you had to think something was up.

Well the market is up and if it continues it will pull oil just like oil probably started the rally by dragging commodities with it. The tail and the dog the cart and the horse the chicken and the egg. Overnight I will position short unless I hear something more either Iran orNigeria.

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STopped out on last sale

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STopped out on last sale

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Initial call was correct/midday look 1:10

Forget technicals unless you are scalping and Oil is up on psychology

or Inflation and that wins the arm wrestle I was bullish and switched to neutral but told you to stay with the trend line which is making money if you are buying dips off the pullbacks to this juncture

Still a seller here at 70.5 

buying dips down to the "tl" looking 69.75 now

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I am selling at 70.5  but i was a buyer 

I use 4 charts all set up on the respective screens when I scalp 

the 1 minute -3 minute -15 minute -60

all of them have to agree for me to ,make a scalp 

I position trade on eco-data plus technicals 

The trendline has been wonderful but will only work to buy dips in an up market

the head and shoulders was not spotted by me but i thought I would apss it along and I also warned that 

it becomes a different pattern which breaks out over the so-called head

I bought at 69.97 and sold at 70.5 

I will short one at 70.5


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head and shoulders top

Some technicians are telling me a head and shoulders pattern is appearing on the 60 min 

If this is so it becomes a screaming sale in the area highlighted in blue on my chart so far the trend line has been the friend kind. Keep an eye and jump on late because a futures rally will make this look like a different pattern and that one is a break-out.

The re-tracement of this pattern looks to go to bottom where the pattern initially formed so say 67

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If you bought on my first buy entry you are up

If you bought on my first buy

near the trend line you have a nice trade you are up  and should consider taking the money and running Im surprised it is bouncing with no indicators there might be something about to unfold here that will piece the puzzle together 

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there is too much going against this

As you can see from the chart I sold Im mad I should have shorted 

My bias is no longer bullish I am moving to neutral the Jobs were bad I sold my long and should have gone short the middle trend lind is pierced Re drawing support 

 

SELL  69.5

buy 67.25

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Jobs crept up

Last report showed a draw in continuing clams this week a slight pop I sold my long

GDP was small and close to expected. This is slightly bad news Lower sell side entry

trade the trend line still but if the dollar gets too strong whilw the market gets weak that will not hold either

Janet Yellin or Lawrence Summers ready to replace Bernanke and threatening to dump sadly one of the most competent of men on the hill If Dem's throw him under the bus it is only to take the focus off them. To take this guy out at this stage would be madness and will change everything.

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The QE digestyed/Playing the trend line

Check out the new trend line - As far  as I can read leaving rates was a given so nothing new there-not buying more bonds well that can't be bullish for oil I have made the statement however Policy maker moves change the market sometimes in ways that they cannot even predict the Brogdinagian Machine we call the market is bigger but these alterations make long term unseen results like if you constantly pollute the ocean it would seem okay for a while until you start seeing fish throw themselves onto the shoreline.

  As you can see and I have been seeing resistance at 69.5x but I have been consistently buying wherever crude meets the trend line on the 60 minute chart. 

You cannot trade this with a blind eye but with the all the intervention the currencies 

reflection of oil will be still trusted but now muddled. 

  According to the Fed the recession is easing durable goods agree still the world is not so sure

don't believe that the fed siting on their hands will do much to stop inflation and that means Inflation fears. Unemployment data is due if the numbers are good you do the math.

stand by for member pricing by email

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Overnight- TRebdline when support becomes resistance

I was musing but I haven't voiced it but I felt it was a no win scenario as far as the bulls are concerned when it came to the exit strategy -The dollar would have gotten a major push if they went the other way but we already had a sizable move yesterday . I amadjusting and carrying a position based on strength or weakness  overnight when i have position set  I will post . 

the currencies effect more than the S+P here.

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testing the trend line

this is testing band popping of this support line

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How is my membership doing

this is my third day of right on the money calls I  am giving you I hust ghave you the buy in of the day on the EIA head fake. I have made mistakes but this site is calling them day in and day out on point. I just spoon fed a grand to anyone paying attention. You got a bargain when you joined I know of members that are up $10000 from my suggestions in less than two months 

He happen to be a good trader but even he will tell you my calls are what made him that money

Lots of success stories and I am trying very hard to teach three beginners I am definitely coming from an altruistic place. 

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read previous post

if you bought where i bought on the trendline at 68.5 you just made a thousand

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Lots of news nobody knows

the EIA is out oil ok gas bad there has been talk that if gas was a bad number that would be pretty bearish.

The Suisse has intervened and altered the path of the Dollar. The new trendline needs to be considered

if it get violated we rethink our buy in we are right here I guess i will put up a quarter and see

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this being held under water

We have intervention here selling the Euro and conversely bolstering the Greenback 

Oil after stunning durable good still hangs below its yesterday's high water mark. There was other good news in Europe OECD . Just yesterday everybody was calling for a correction well that deos not really jibe with the durable goods numbers or yesterdays housing data and more housing data is due today. Members have been sent my pre-EIA bias which will be updated after the inventories are announced. For now buy the dips

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Members Wait for the EIa

the QE Meeting will be announced later today -Safe to say It is huge the dollar is already reflecting weakness so some of the pricing is in if the FEd looks to exit It means to me a violent sell off if the timing is correct that places it close to the nymex close 2:15 Pm

There is no point in my opinion giving pricing until the EIA is out 

Members will get a post after the announcement. We did a lot of flipping staying up all night sell at 69.12 and buying at 68.18 and many many more. I am following all eco-data and will have prices after that.

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3:43 this is your morning entry

They are acting as if there will no move in the Fed meeting leaving the dollar to its savage beatings at the hands of its brothers the Pound the rupiah ringit rupee yen kiwi aussie D etc.

this coupled with oil coming in with a bullish EIA will drive Oil straight to its new highs you must wait for the news it will be up in fear and anticipation. So wait aroung 10 to 10 im hearing but i would listening earlier the bulge in gasoline is seen as bearish to me it is more of the same

and we had a draw in Oil be very light on your feet but both of these cards come in and you got yourselves an inside straight to the highs

  

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Overnight play gets fuel to the fire

I know many Oilitradinginsiders are long and feeling heady  here you can see my entries right on the chart to the left. Tonight we know the API showed at 72000 draw in OIl but a build in GAs and Distillates. The market closed below the 200 day moving average and a technical sell is in effect but while we wait on the EIA and the FEd meeting so this until tomorrow is a crapshoot and we should get some psychological swings swaying from greed to fear and not necessarily in that order. If  you are up it might be prudent o take profits wait for a swing and reboard the train so to speak

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Chalk one up for Oilitrading insider

I said this morning buy dips there will be hesitation than expectation 

I hope every member killed them today I mapped it almost to the letter 

the pullback went to 66.95 my entry was 67.25 with instructions to buy after the turn should have put you in 67.1x  A serious Moneymaker Today

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New buy in prices

as we mentioned the worse home sales have reduced our long position target to 66.37

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Homes sales were a little disappointing

Expectations were not achieved they were looking for  3% gain and  got 2.4% one .

the bigger picture is clearly being overlooked as the correction sentiment pervades the mindsets of skittish traders. 

Everything sold off  across the board and a buy in has been gift wrapped I bought in 67.18

and will trade out like I did with my 68.08 trade. The dollar is still weak and the slightest pop in the s+p will get you a profit and today you had better take it.

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Psychology-Do not get in front of a train-Home Sales at 10

I gave out some aggressive buy side pricing and I am leaning to the bullish side through 

tomorrow we I may resume the bear trend we have been facing. We sold for a trade above 68 as Oppenheimer has just come out and spread the word about Oil fair value will be $50.

Homes Sales come at ten and a bad number drops the buy side entry back inrto the 66.xx area

Remember don't just leave a price to get steam rolled let it break and turn and then get on -

the very bottom will be difficult to land with all these cross-currents

The $50 Oil model makes sense in some scenarios but Goldman's $85 makes sense in other scenarios -Iran is currently according to the talking heads priced in. I don't think a blockade in the straits of Hormuz is priced in so take everything with grain of salt. We have some bullish manipulation and We shall see if it has a lasting effect my experience is that no policy maker or rate cute or bond buy back will ever be bigger than the market but we are playing this with an eye for inventory's as well there was a report out last Friday that Inventories were bearish Wednesday Last week showed a draw. We shall know by the way this trades towards the end of Day what the smart money believes tonight.

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It can't be that Easy

The Fed Speculation has turned the the dollar and stemmed the sell-off. We turned the corner and we expect the API after the close and EIA inventories tomorrow. The danger is gone for the moment and last night was the best place to get in . We expect hesitation than a move in expectation. Members pricing is out shortly.

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World Bank News Apology-important

last night at around 10-11 I was vigilantly watching for hints about Oil as I usually do when the George Soros story came out a few minutes later the  World Bank unveiled its new GDP 

and bleak outlook all around. I got ready instantly to hit my bid but As I went to activate the trade it went the other way up. And it had me re-thinking I recalled the Soros Incident which drove the markets down badly  before March  and came to the conclusion that perhaps the news was a wash. Wrong! what I did not realize that most of the trading world is not as manic as me and maybe Ted and perhaps Bill and not enough people had fielded the news It had to circulate through until the East Coast got in and appropriately knocked the stuffing out of Oil.

At that point I knew We were (5 AM)in for a helluva down day so bad in fact my buy rec 

was three points lower and told everyone to sell every rally check the morning entry before 8.

The apology from me to the membership is we had it first almost and we had a lot of time to sell oil at 70 while it was moving in slow motion on the overnight. You have my excuse to why I was head-faked but there really is no excuse I knew that World Bank news was bad but gave Soros way too much credit and I forgot that we were one of the few paying attention 

and should have tipped you guys last night instead of this morning.

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I'm not at my work station
I will be in within the hour
Anybody has any questions m getting email

I'm not at my work station
I will be in within the hour
Anybody has any questions m getting email

Overnight Monday

Im still short one contract if it goes up and I get stopped I will be in to reposition 

one way or the. I am betting there will be no easing at this junctureso whatever QE bets you are making bet on Bernanke

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Aftermath-Over All if you read us you should have side stepped this one

Nobody seemed play the Sunday trades but they were profitable if you traded out. Even though  both legs were fromthe buy  side. After watching Oil break down to 68.3 at 5 AM and back up to  68.75 I told you  directly in emails to sell rallies that I was bearish in stanceand 

offered the first place to buy 66.25 It got down only to 66.68 but the only time I am more bearish is when I tell you to hit the bid and give a morning entry on the sell side at the current price. What I gave you should have been good enough. Plus on Friday I told you guys to protect your accounts for up to a 10 percent correction. Now I know it is not that easy to get out and my position is like a battleship it took most of the morning Friday to make sure each and every stock I owned has a call sold with premium equal to 10 percent  of the value of the underlying taken in. And even after doing that which I considered at least defensive on my part I had to short crude to be in a position to buy anything when the carnage was at its worst. 

I have to admit I never believed I would see Rimm back in the 60's but I bought 80 puts in June and lost my stock just in time it seems. I am now long once again at 68. I will scale down as a buyer everyone is talking Major correction now. I will definitely react to th world bank next time I mean the news was out at like 8 o'clock lat night I could have sold oil much higher had I not underestimated its impact. They are gonna call for a major pullback now but I highly doubt people are seeing this clearly. Joblessness is easing housing starts are better german confidence is better but the technicals look very ugly here

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