Saturday, May 30, 2009

You might ask yourself why should I join Oilitradinginsider

This is the age of laptop trading. On the floors of the NYSE-AMEX-NYMEX etc.  the glory days of the eighties and nineties are over it is now  pro versus pro. The massive theoretical edges are gone and the playing field in many ways has been leveled.
However If you come to battle and do not arm yourself  it indeed transforms into Pro vs. Joe and if you ever watched the show Joe doesn't get too many wins. 

What you get from joining is having a pro in your corner. To new traders among the myriad of things I do I will point you in the right direction in terms of setting up an account that offer the best commission rate and believe me it makes a huge difference. I  will do the homework necessary for you to even be in this arena that you may not be ready or able to procure of worse yet decipher at this stage of your development. The list goes on but you get the idea I think. I am available to all traders by email and If you really need me by phone. You get an investment professional for forty dollars a month and that is a price that cannot be matched. To the experienced trader there are probably many vehicles on your plate- I hold many securities but I am  only trading oil. I never stop watching  Oil except to sleep and I do not do much of that take a look at my Helsinki chart this is Saturday night and I am thinking about oil. I will be your watchdog and try to be of service giving the right amount of info that you can grab quickly and put to work for you. It may take a little time but I will tweak and work until I have figured the system that works best for you and deliver it. 
By now you guys must realize that I am very passionate about this work I love it and that is one of keys that make me profitable. I have said this before I am not a webmaster I am trader I embrace the new technology but I  go all the way back to the old school I have survived both bull and bear markets and if oil is your chosen investment vehicle you are going to need some help because sadly the numbers are true-80% lose  all their money -10% break even and the remaining ten win. That being said taking some rudimentary steps will lift a trader  into the break even bracket by simply controlling losses with unwavering discipline(stops.25 on every trade no matter what) can turn you into a fifty-fifty trader as your guesses will ultimately break that way over the long haul. 
It is easy to do and hard to do this is a must if you are going to trade with me and I insist you just do it. Sometimes I will even tighten the stops to .15 cents and Sometimes I loosen but never more than .35 cents so it averages to .25.
Now to get to the next level is a little trickier not to minimize the difficulty of true discipline. 
I will give price entries that will work you must commit yourself as well I encourage you to learn and evolve and create a style all your own. I am teaching you how to fish and giving you some fish so you don't starve while you master the skill. 



  It's  Saturday Night and all is quiet in the world of oil futures trading maybe too quiet.
Left to our ruminations charts and numbers and theories can be reviewed and analyzed and preparations can be made for the week ahead.
  I wrote about this event for some time and I am glad I was not stubborn and turned and let Oil take me with it the last two trading days and nights. There is more to this we are in different territory now- this may pull back but you had better buy when that happen because we are not far from making the move to 70. All the pieces are in place for this to happen and when it was down in the thirties the bottom of our lives was put in.
Oil will never see that price again. The speculation to that end is severely flawed and unfounded. The long term chart says up-the short term chart even says up but some type of pull back has to occur we will weather and time these anomaly's  and hopefully with finesse take advantage so we will be able to enjoy eventual lofty prices which are certain to be reached. 






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Friday, May 29, 2009

Buy reco was sent to members today 65.25

Remember that old chestnut"don't fight the tape" just like "the trend is your friend"
these vintage axioms still ring true today as they did so many years ago back in the days of 
"The Curb" where trading took place on the open street.  If you have been trading or following oil this week you can see just how tried and true and reliable these ideas are as it has basically made a straight line from 59.53 to the 66.xx area we stand today. 
Most everyone else seems to be trying to pick the top It is all I have been reading and hearing since 63.xxim glad I did not get sucked in I hope you avoided that noise as well-At what point do they recognize a break out? If  you listened to these experts that somehow got so close to the forest they can no longer see trees you would have found yourself being stopped out again and again and again
even if you were a disciplined trader. Overbought is something to consider but even the greenest of traders
know this indicator can be radically one-sided and still the vehicle will not reverse. 
 If you stayed with me we too took a couple short trades along the way but when it consistently held its ground on the overnight well do you need to be hit with a hammer to forehead to know it would give you a headache. Instead of top picking and let's allow oil to  let us know when this is over we have and hope every member enjoyed an extra 3 points or more. Now you tell me what is the better strategy-I'm shocked at these technicians that usually follow the trends this has moved 7 points straight up if it goes down you could even miss a point and jump on board when the trend does reverse. you will still be far ahead of the game.
 The dollar is getting hit it too is at a key technical level we just bought again at 65.95 we are moving the stop up as we type we see it is beginning to go up we risk nothing now and we are back on the train north
Stopped out for no-loss one more try at buy side 65.70 we will trade the range for the moment 66.40-65.65
We did a number of round trips we told members that did get in on the overnight bargain to buy in on a dip
at 65.20 area=it closed way higher 66.64 you would have made $1440























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the trend is your Friend/the charter membership is sold out no more memberships offered at $30 per month


I doubt anyone was up but if you were you got a chance to buy in with me as you can see
we sold our earlier buy on is first run up to the high thus far and bought back in at 65.28 (around 3:15)
as you can see from the chart and it has again tested the high of 65.70.
Do  we have ourselves a little trading range. Well everyone in this membership knows where we stand and have stood on Oil since the break out of the 47-54 range. We are bullish.
We know there is a finite amount of oil. We know where oil has been we see what some of the 
moves that have been maneuvered during this economic contraction  could drive the price 
of Oil to heights that could astonish. Oil is good at that. Oil likes to astonish.

As the charter membership sold out I want to thank and congratulate all members who have banded together here. In this age of electronic trading the so-called broker charging outrageous commissions is a dying breed and should be but good advice is needed in these uncertain times perhaps more than ever. You cannot get a better deal than this. Along with the endless
tips and price entries I am available to each member and I try to answer all questions 
and get everyone involved moving in the right direction. The mission is to help others avoid some of the pitfalls that can beset a new trader and earn a solid reputation as a day in day out
handicapper of the Oil market. No one can argue with the results since March. I think we can also help some of the more experienced traders who maybe need a second look at the equations and perhaps a fresh perspective especially if they have been struggling of late. 
 We are stronger as a collective than we are as an individual and we  respect and encourage 
input from each and every member. The comment section under each posting can act as a forum for questions and answers and opinions. Thus far although it has picked up slightly it is still under  utilized.
  It is now 4:13 We have already sent out our ranges today and we currently have backed off the high and the last trade was 65.59 - We now stand long one contract at 65.29 stop in place 65.04
We can easily afford to return the $250 as we have made more than that between 3:14 and 4:16
this morning alone and if we do get stopped out and the rally does end it will not be hard to sell. We trade we do not take this personally. We try to extract money regardless of up or down.
As for us after this trade we are most likely done for the week as we have stated the weekly target has long since been acquired. There is nothing left to prove until Sunday night.
Every week the challenge is renewed.





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Deja-vu all over again/charter membership sold out/I am long 65.20


It is 2:39 Am I was stopped out at 65 more than two hours ago and decided it was prudent
that's right prudent to go long and buy above 65. I have a stop in place at break-even at 65.20
The dollar looks weak and Oil takes any excuse it can this week. Selling into Crude here is tantamount to standing on the tracks and trying to stop the express train with 
our good looks.  Forget overbought for a day or two. Speaking of forgetting it was just last July
Oil was 147 how oversold was it on that descent.  I made small profits trying to sell with diligence and stops but we shattered our weekly goal yesterday going with momentum
not against it and that has to be the smarter play. So we are long and that may seem insane
seeing as it was 59.82 we bought just days ago and we really have no reason to keep trading
this week as we have reached our goal for the eleventh consecutive time.  Yes we are long 
and rather than trying to be smarter than the market we will let oil tell us when this rally 
is over and we can well afford the stop out when that occurs.





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Thursday, May 28, 2009

After open-out cry Thursday now short 65.20


Do you want to blame this rally it on durable goods? The market itself?Inventories ? Summer drive? Saudi Arabia?Sentiment? Like I said this vehicle was looking for an excuse to rally so pick your poison so to speak.
 We admit it was tough to buy just below 63 after a fairly nice move but when it did not sell off last night and just stood its ground the feeling that purveyed was to go with it rather than fight it. We certainly dismissed the notion of selling down there (now its down there) and hope we dispelled that urge throughout the membership. We are at the top of this new channel slightly upwards of 65 and before it broke through to 65.44 we positioned from the short side at 65.20 narrowly avoiding a stop out on our second entry from the sell side. Stop in place of course at 65.25 I should not have to print that as a stop normally goes in place and is usually between 15-35 cents depending on conditions but is so vital that we will reiterate because that mistake just cannot be made by any trader in this group. 
 It is still acting like there is more upside to go but we will take one or two more shots from the sell side at the apex of this channel from a trading perspective. We like the Saudi's believe 75 is not that far fetched and we will certainly see it at some point on the horizon.







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The only reason there is even one spot remaining is that the secret is not out yet charter membership to close out in two days when prices go to $40 a month this is the elite group
Eleven straight weeks of profitability. 
1 spots left join the charter membership prices are $40 per month June 1 2009
We rode this time nearly two points before selling took one shot at the sell side and prudently adjusted stop down and was subsequently was stopped out for another small win looking for next entry on sell side
I'm away from my desk but my research
Was thorough I was one of the only buyers at the 62.95 area last night and told everyone we had one more leg to go
Up-Everyone should have had no trouble understanding the bias and in fact I posted where I bought twice my buy entry
Was a little lower but you easily could have and should have bought with me
I flattened out at 64.75 and sold one 64.88 I have my stop in place at 64.75
Protecting profits again the other way
I am seller at 65 area

Thursday a Day for the EIA/ morning price


The API was bullish and I expect the EIA to show a draw as well and apparently from the way Oil is acting I am not the only one. The dollar which seems poised to rally seems to be discounted in favor of sentiment and expectation.  Last night we bought 62.88 on the re-open at 6 PM
Sold at 63.10 but as oil did not come in with the high-yield currencies selling off we bought
again at 62.95 since 12am those currencies have stabilized against the dollar. It is hard to reco
a buy up here and I have been able to stop protect profit as July Oil has already retouched and tested the r3. Everybody seems to think it is a no-brainer that Oil should come back down today citing would-be reversal patterns  and eyeing a pullback down in the 59.xx zone but this seems poised to make one more leg up and is looking for any excuse to make the run and  
the EIA to me would be just what the doctor ordered.
If the numbers somehow show a glut price entries emailed are void and I will re-assess
in the afternoon.  My current position as I stated Is long 1 contract at 62.95 stop adjusted to protect profits at 63.25 I may sell and reverse especially near my sell entry point if not stopped 
out

morning prices
buy 62.5
Sell 64.75



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Eleven straight weeks of Profitability and counting
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Wednesday, May 27, 2009

overnight Priing

Once again we are in the break and in the face of a down market Oil sentiment remains very strong. So strong in fact that Oil went up and tested the R3(resistance line in Tech analysis)
peaking at 63.82. My trading style by day is typically far more aggressive than at night
And even though many analyst and factors pointed to a bit of correction -the correct play
was to buy this morning and sell the late afternoon. Our entry points were hopeful to be kind on the buy side and .32 cents shy of the top on the sell side. We warn members when we give out these points to shade 10 cents to a quarter depending on the outlook I give and the 
inertia of the rally/sell-off. Unless I tell you to buy/sell with confidence which I usually do at 
least once or twice a week. Also If It is a day I'm actively trading like yesterday and we miss a buy entry by 10 cents keep an eye for the posting you might see that I bought in a little higher 
when we fractionally missed the bottom. On days like that I will sometimes post when we are getting close as well as I did warning members the entry was here.

selling above 63.6 tonight
just bought 62.88 not planning to hold just for a scalp





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Instincts

My instincts were to buy this morning and anyone who read this morning's post should have been able to tell I was bullish- "Touching on the point no one should be surprised about this and there is more to go before this takes a breath"
I had some personal errands to run this morning so I laid out but I felt the instinct to buy and 
I told one member so I have  witness.  I could have easily bought and stop protected 
but so-called"common-sense" and perhaps greed made me wait looking for that juicy buy in spot. We all had our chance to buy yesterday and I did at 59.82 but I did not ride it nearly far enough. There is an OPEC meeting coming up and apparently inflation fears the list goes on and on right now. We know oil can move for points at at clip day after day after day in one direction- So starting tonight we analyze each day on it's own merits. All this jawboning about 75 a barrel from Saudi arabia. I am going to buy this dip if it gets back to 62 area today





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good vibrations last trade 62.92/morning prices


Stopped out on the overnight play at 62.49 for a small profit plus $310 - commissions.Having an open order an stop adjusting is a much better scenario but it is what it is.
Where to from here?
Inventories are coming and if there is a draw they seem to be looking for an excuse to run
this event even further.
Time to  take in the awe of the bull and there really should be no shock that it goes up
Just like when it crashed no one could believe it could possibly go down another day and that is precisely what it would do.
Of this bull market. It appears we are not quite ready to take a breath and the pullbacks to get long will be ridden longer rather than trade.
Im going to trade less today and let it come to me.

Morning entries 


buy  60


Sell 63.5   









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Tuesday, May 26, 2009

last stop adjustment last trade 62.27

Stops are kept tighter on the overnight for anyone new to my trading style. I believe oil is 
going higher ultimately but today's move was on sentiment mostly 
and that can evaporate as quickly as it materialized. We are wandering againinto Wednesday and Of course by now everyone should know between 8-9 am the EIA. The rule of thumb is to stay flat wait for announcement and go with the flow. Last week we front ran the report going long and getting members in on that winner at 60.47( I know of at least 5 who did.)
It was over a grand a man for anyone who got on board a thing of beauty.
The normal rules are out the window here Oil trading is an ever-changing phenom. that
marches to the beat of a different drummer  so part of the trick is realizing what is driving the rhythm right now. So we are gong to watch closely and see if we get any hints and pass them 
on to my team ASAP. 
As everyone also knows I sold right after the re-opening at 62.80(other member had ages to get in on this overnight action but few seem to) it is now 62.27 We are up thus far $530 but we will only protect $280 we trail stop 30 cents from here and since we stayed up 
until 1 am trading yesterday and started at 7 Am today and have only stopped for food  breaks
while still watching I may go and  catch a couple hours sleep. We may wake up even and flat we may wake up with a nice profit. I prefer the latter but will be ready to play the cards dealt.
One thing is certain I like what I do.





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Stop adjustment last trade 62.42

Stops are kept tighter on the overnight for anyone new to my trading style. I believe oil is 
going higher ultimately but today's move was on sentiment mostly 
and that can evaporate as quickly as it materialized. We are wandering again into Wednesday and Of course by now everyone should know between 8-9 am the EIA. The rule of thumb is to stay flat wait for announcement and go with the flow. Last week we front ran the report going long and getting members in on that winner at 60.47( I know of at least 5 who did.)
It was over a grand a man for anyone who got on board a thing of beauty.
The normal rules are out the window here Oil trading is an ever-changing phenom. that
marches to the beat of a different drummer  so part of the trick is realizing what is driving the rhythm right now. So we are gong to watch closely and see if we get any hints and pass them 
on to my team ASAP. 
As everyone also knows I sold right after the re-opening at 62.80(other member had ages to get in on this overnight action but few seem to) it is now 62.42 We are up thus far $380 but we will only protect $80 we trail stop 30 cents from here and since we stayed up 
until 1 am trading yesterday and started at 7 Am today and have only stopped for food  breaks
while still watching I may go and  catch a couple hours sleep. We may wake up even and flat we may wake up with a nice profit. I prefer the latter but will be ready to play the cards dealt.
One thing is certain I like what I do.










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Recap after Open-outcry



As you can see from he chart we barely reached the third sell entry of the day
at 62.5 and this too is no screaming short but rather a trade in my estimation.
The day was filled with possibilities as oil pulled back on last night's overnight to 59.53
Unfortunately we were asleep when that transpired but  at 7 o'clock when it was trading at 60
we selected 59.50 as a buy in point. We outlined that the correction was expected and called for a buy in on this pullback. It almost worked out perfectly prior to the consumer confidence 
We alerted everyone that we were nearing our buy entry and it fell just short 10 cents 
as 59.60 was a low as it would go. Seeing that it was not going to make it to the buy entry and a turnaround was in play I bought  59.82 and posted this event to the membership.  It hung around this area for a while until the confidence report  lifted the market and systemically pulled oil with it. Other reports also were beginning to circulate about inflation and summer driving and Oil headed for $80 a barrel.(One of the members clued me in CNBC had an analyst
calling for $35 a barrel citing weaker demand-I don't see it personally)and oil shattered the resistance that had previously held its ground at 62.26.  It is hard to have a regret on a day where you bank a thousand dollars but had I stuck with the system and simply stop adjusted
I could have made almost two rather than try to pinpoint the top. We typically let the market 
pick tops and bottoms and give up the last interval of profits when we are stopped out.



Only one spot left in the charter membership and we go to delayed publishing to non-members
direct email pricing will be published right on the daily posting at that juncture 
under the title " Morning Prices"

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Fighting the rally

Today we bought at 59.82 sold at 61.25
and we covered our 61.5 short unchanged recognizing a changed landscape


So far once again 61.90 sale stopped out for a loss $250 
as Oil has breeched resistance  and begins to run 62.43
one more sale entry at 62.50




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Ok end of the road on the rally

We are going to try to make something on the sell side here as the rally is staring to look a little  long in the tooth to me. Selling one at 61.90 stop in place .25 above



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Consumer Confidence numbers up sharply/tech drives market


The consumer confidence level jumped dramatically whipsawing Oil up near our sell reco
minutes after tantalizing the buy spot I have given a 2 point range out today which is actually fairly tight as Oil but you have to trade to make money. We were much more confident about the buy side today if you read just over two hours ago I called this a healthy correction ergo a pullback was a chance to buy. Which I did a little higher than my entry on the buy side at 59.82
as you can see from the chart on the left
My next sell entry is 62.25




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break in discipline



We just got down to 59.60 and it looked like we were all going to buy 10 cents away from 
my reco- I bought at 59.70 and flipped and bought again 59.82 my first real entry of the day I don't think I could have gotten the word to the members fast enough and in a way this is a break in discipline -This vehicle trades 23.15 hours a day we got some time to go. I will flip this as soon as I make a half 



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Only one spot left


One more member just joined us leaving only one spot left before all posting will go on a one day delay to non-members  
Welcome aboard to our new member feel free to email at chrgr06@yahoo.com


Oil has broken 60 and nears our buy entry 
Remember to use and adjust stops periodically I am going to use a .30 cent trailing stop





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Pricing out to members already

Dollar looks strong and the Market just off a bit there is much cross current or conflicting 
we have already traded down on the overnight 
member have been given our price entries
This latest currency move is an expected correction buy the dips at suggested price
It was 60 at 7:00 and 59.53 earlier. There is no room for rest in this business




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Monday, May 25, 2009

Pound gains ground

Like a korean Nuke a delyed take-off has us moving stop to break even last trade 61.50
We adjust stops as our latest member decided to join me on this trade despite my warning
so let's move that risk to zero and trail stop if it breaks 62







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Rocket entry-failure to launch

 I may not even wait for the stop out if this keeps up. One of the beautiful things about overnight positioning as things move in slow motion relative to the helter skelter and pandemonium we typically witness during the day as the pound turns around as do rest 
Of currencies Dollar appears  particularly strong against Yen.
We warned everybody not to even do the last trade just keeping everyone in the loop
time to get serious and back to  business  with an entry point we can feel good recommending.
Now we probably won't give one out until the AM look.   We stay fluid here on the overnight
as N. Korea takes pot shots at us spy planes  and hit the Yen by accident.



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here we go again/overnight positioning


Not enough really to go on and I suppose I would advise waiting for a pull back to buy but 
I will stay up with this trade and we managed to scrape almost $900 with the non-event
Sunday to Monday.  The dollar is down a bit the futures are up a bit and a lot of talk
being bandied about regarding N. Korean nuke test set to destabilize the region 
We take a flyer here on the long side as you can see illustrated on the chart to my left. I will move stop as per usual to break even as soon as possible. 60.5 Which was resistance has become near-term support as else remaining constant.




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Only 2 charter memberships left


We welcome our newest member to this small but elite trading group as we develop
our community and it's reach extends further. We email direct pricing at least once a day at present.
Any questions feel free to email Chrgr06@yahoo.com. Once these last two memberships are sold the postings will be sent out on a one day delay to non-members so they will be able to see the accuracy of our work.  Pricing will be included right on the post and emailed directly to each member in real time. 

At the left shows the chart we have been hanging around 61 for hours. Last night we alerted members about the turnaround in the dollar which prompted a short position at 61.80.
Members have been advised where to cover. For our newest member look to the break
as we will be making new overnight advisements at that juncture.




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Memorial Day

Again there will be many traders skipping the action. As you know we bought then reversed and went short on the overnight at 61.80 the Last trade in Oil is 61.02. We have a stop adjusted.   Not much liquidity on this non-event so some of the normal rules may not apply.
Dollar staggers to its feet after being brutalized by almost every other currency
we will cover our short  at areas noted in your emails and may reverse not far from there.




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Sunday, May 24, 2009

Currencies take a 180

Kind of overdue really ad the currencies turn back and head south a bit as the Dollar steadies
against all others. We used a trail stop and flattened at 61.80 And Sold one more as the picture changed. Also once Bloomberg tells you we are going up it is almost always done at that point
as they tend to be a tad late for dinner so to speak. This is no sudden bear market but a normal pullback we will look to get long again we will check in in the  AM with the morning recommendations.     Remember when we trade overnight we usually stop adjust to break even asap. This way no unpleasant morning surprises.




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Everyone knows first come first serve


You have to trade globex or You will find it infinitely harder to buy after it  has gone up a point and vice versa -We start the week on the good foot and buy the opening. Most of my members should have gotten in at the low-and everybody should have gotten in 61.6 the highest.
Currently 62.10. I have talked about this endlessly so we shall let the numbers do the talking today.
On Bloomberg and CNBC turn it on right now they are talking about 80 for Oil Once these guys start getting              bullish I start to get nervous so lets trail stop again 35 cents from the last trade



Paypal was down late last week and I know some guy in Philly was reading me for a half hour
only 3 spots left and we go to delayed publishing for non-members pay pal is up now
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Sunday Globex Starting my work


On this Holiday weekend we truly wonder who will be in today but we will email our prices 
just the same.
One Secondary account note we let go of our steel position with all
the talk of even less demand  and cars made of alternatives like plastic and fiberglass. We are buyers again 25-27 we will reestablish our position in that area.
We may shift our sector choice to NUE rather than X we shall see.

OIL july close at 61.67 at 2 o'clock we are just checking the usual news feeds for anything we might need to know and we will  dissect the  charts anon. There is at least one email sent out to members each day I take a stand unlike other analyst I do the trade as well-I believe in what I do-I read as many subscriptions as I can and follow as many news feeds as possible but ultimately derive my pricing  from a combination of technical analysis and how I perceive the behavior of the market. No one else will take this 
bold stance.




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