after 1322 posts this party is over

This is the very last post I will send via this blog forum thus ending the number one value on the net I have a small but loyal membership and they will be the only ones to retain this membership at the charter rate. Don't worry current members updates will still come directly to your. email inbox just from the other site along with the direct email but the 127 or so freeloaders that my analytics tell me tat check in regularly will no longer be able to access the information.
Anyone who joins this weekend through this site can get in but that is it.
It has been fun having a cult internet following but it is time to grow.
My charter members will be rewarded with the low price for as long as they keep their membership active. We have some plans to expand and we are negotiating a 30 minute cable access forum where we will prognosticate and take calls and and answer questions
the show will be titled oilitradinginsider as well.

have a great labor day

we will be trading Sunday as Oil does not believe in labor day if we are able to at least forward the posts we are moving to the new site this weekend

my buy reco was 8 cents from the low after gauging the effect of the report

we made two buys 67.3 and one 67.25 one other buy 67.8 was stopped at 67.5 and one sale at 68 covered at 67.5 two sales at 68.3 one cover ed at 67.5 one at 67.9 won5 loss 1 about average for me -double down on jcg at 31.7 sold at 33.9 today natty bought last night 2.485 sold 2.60 sold way too soon obvious short squeeze looks like a short candidate now

market up 96 and I told you all week to buy the dips especially the down 188 day

I am not always so bullish when we get to the other extreme i will probably be one of the minority bears but we are long way from there

again I tried to help all my mebers have a great weekend

Click donate below for a one hour phone consultation
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule

We told you we need to take in the news

After the jobs report we gave you the new range which it has traded down to four times two more since we set the range each member sticking to this protocol should have a minimum of two winners

against the one stop advanced traders might have gotten 4 trips as selling near 68 was also mentioned as a play and was also successful

I bet you are thinking what a gyp- They builty this up too much and sold too hard too early

pretty much making this a non-event

Still all week has been safe and great for oil traders 50 is $500 do that 4 times you have $2000

even with our one loser we are well over a g and that has been the story day in day

out sometimes an overhang like this can provide a haven of safety allowing traders to take the swings knowing it can't get too far away all week i have been giving you great ranges and update

except Wednesday you should have done very well with my suggestions as usual

one stop reenter

iwe buy again after the stop at 67.3 stop at 67 this is the critical technical level

no we ned to make 80 cents on this one

hold the presses

We get stopped out here and watching the dollar closely
Natty popping a bity after dropping allthe way to 2.4 15 cent bounce

Trade the swings

All that for nothing


We buy at 67.8 takes half points re-load

play the jobs today

One half hour from the moment we have all been waiting for a bad number is supposed to sent the market reeling -My view on the jobs have been well publicized at this point
we have some insurance and we will buy wherever it dips to if he number blows out 233 comes in at 260 and 9.5 looks like 10 then we will start cherry picking through the landslide
The number has been partially discounted and the number has been so scrutinized i will be very shocked if they are not dead on with the prediction if it does land it should sell mildly should be bought

Friday NFP

Always a big number and way over blown this week
The ism was awesome we are out of the recession the retail sales show glimmers
Bernanke just promised he would not make the mistake of pulling the QE plug too early
So the banking sell-off was unfounded as evidenced by the "sanity" bounce today
If they crush them tomorrow i will be buying at the bottom with a back hoe
this is ludicrous . Unless the jobs number is beyond what I can fathom judging by every other piece of macro data we have seen for the past month- I am not expecting a wonder number of even a good one-Jobs are last-come on guys is this your first recession?
Albeit a terrible one there is enough history to outline that everything is moving along the course it should and the bounce from the march lows-you do not understand trading if you do not understand the anomaly March was- the quintessential sell off in the extreme a chance to buy and even get wealthy that you will never ever ever see again in your lifetime-Eliminate the aberration and the bounce that has us here is far more orderly and puts us almost exactly where we should be and we will be higher in the future I hope they crush 'em because I bought some protection and I will wait until they are completely strung out and then I will put them out of their misery.d

last trade im done for day

Sold out that last one for 60 cents if you were following me you would have bout at 68.05-.10
as it went down a little further after the post but that is it for real time trading I hope you enjoyed
be back after errands around 4 to adjust portfolio

oilitraders

it is only 923 but if you start trading at 6 you missed important trades as this will ultimately be a non-event leading to tomorrow last sale 68.4 could have finesse and got in at 68.05
but umped the gun still looks good

im not the onyl one buying at 68

we get the stochastic cross and cover the short at b68.3 and go long at 68.20 we are scalping halves

if you read the email

We sold at 69.25 in anticipation that the weekly jobs number would not be received well

just say any phrase with the word job in it and watch the futures lose 10 handles

This worry is irrational-the ecb comments is a little unsettling regarding the euro-dollar relationship

The dollar should be your on top of all your other indicators and it make sense to actually dedicate a scrren to currencies as many subtleties can be missed simply by gauging the index

AUD NZD and other high yielders can "buck" the trend

Even with all this negativity this is the first palce I sold and have gone short I think it makes sense to buy some protection on a run up today

I have moved stop to 68.85 i will take short off 68 if it not stopped out and look to go long again

we are not going far i will say it again buy the dips sell the blips

If you get a run up maybe some BGZ again and dump them after the dip tomorrow

We are long

Weekly jobs and the non ism and some retail once again the jobs tomorrow are holding up any move for now-They are braced for the worst in light of the ISm i will step out and rule out worse case scenario if could still be bad and should be its a lagging indicator
that won't stop the masses from panic selling you should be buying that dip in size if it happens

BP discovery

The recent discoveries of he Oil in the gulf defies the ordinary guidelines of more supply lower prices as the oil will not even enter the marketplace until 2014
In fact the bullish price action in the stock could act as as systemic pull being bullish near term in fact the eia draw reinforced the api but with the overall worry about the friday jobs report there is only so far we can go in either direction that being said i am widening my stops and not taking any lossess on thursda

Jcg

The other day we got you into JCG at 32.10 as an earnings play and got out after the earnings exuberance at 35.5 the high was 35.8 on the surge

we then took aq shot at 33.75 and got singed so now we are doing our homework the stock was

weaker than the entire market- Is Adami that influential? Today Citi comes out and gives a look that jcg will be 40 and will beat earnings more as the 3rd and 4th quarters clock

the market looks terrible here but I think you have to discount the fact that it has gone up 214%

it is simply worth more and will be worth more in the future consider jcrew if we get the sell off friday at a bargain if you can hang on higher numbers will come wish we waited a bit

Today's Guidance

On EIA Wednesday there really is no point to giving guidance as when the report comes the

buy or sell entries are void anyway

We are also trying to bring you guys along if the market is cracking I have said time and again

that you must judge the speed velocity and seriousness of the the selling pressure and feel free to adjust them lower or higher

now If i am posting like I did the last few days constantly updating that is a different story

and It is important to know the difference

\

We warned you strongly about UNG this fund this was more than just a sell your long this one was a short -there is still too much premium versus the future and the super-contango and closed ended this fair values this at 6-7 If it gets there it might be ok to buy

this fund if it gets ridiculous and drops

Click donate below for a one hour phone consultation
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule

eco thursday

Check the gas numbers if natty comes in with another build we are going to see 2.5

very soon. bottom fishing in natty dangerous business

Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jul -880M -441M 07:55 EUR German PMI Services Aug F 54.1 54.1 08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Aug F 49.5 49.5 08:30 GBP PMI Services Aug 54 53.2 09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.10% -0.20% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Jul -2.10% -2.40% 11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 560K 570K 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite 48 46.4 14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 67B 54B

We got all the way up to 68.8 after the EIa broke only to settle back herethe fact that we did close down where the swing low lead me to believe we are gonna head up but THis Friday thing is going to hang over this until the report comes the news will probably be bad and then irt will crash that crash if it occurs will be bargain huntiong territory all over - It is almost like they are trying to make the market go down so they can do just that and so far it is working I don't beelive a lagging indicator should lead the market but that is the case right now

API

API reported huge draw in crude and gasoline inventories. Crude oil stockpile declined -3.19 mmb (consensus: -0.33 mmb) to 343.5 mmb in the week ended August 28 as surge in refinery runs outpaced increase in imports. Cushing stockpile also fell -0.4 mmb in the week. Gasoline stockpile dropped -2.81 mmb to 206.9 mmb despite rise in refinery runs while distillate inventory rose +0.92 mmb to 161.8 m

The APi threw a bid under oil the globex low was 67.75 and we are long at 68 with a stop at 67.6

We take the 70 cents again and we will continue to enter near the bottom of the channel this time just below at 67.80

stop 67. 5 I fhe EIa comes in like the APi it should go but a strong dollar and a weak market might hamper its take off

ultimately a big enough draw will allow oil to lead the whole market up

I have been using esignal

Esignal does not export their chart that easily but I have been looking closely at this one
We are now at the crossroads we are hearing all sorts of I told you's from the analysts who have ben proclaiming this sell off since the last correction in June
We have heard from countless sources the reasons for the sell off
overbought-china- too far too fast-unemployment-end of the QE
That to me is the last two I may be willing to buy into as we know the market has been propped up by the fed printing press and there will be a time that ben must pull back he won't do it
just because the ism finally turned positive making a strong case for a v shaped recovery
he ust got done with a meeting where he pointed out the mistake of the last fed chairman who presided over an economic catastrophe did just that pulled the QE too soon.
He will lose credibility if he does the opposite of what he just proclaimed
SO if the sell off is base on the end of the QE we are jumping the gun seriously
The last one is the scary one the jobs are bad you can see it in the world we live in people are out of work and it will be the last thing to get fixed so to all these people it will seem like a recession
no matter what the ism and GDP report
They will crush the market a little more if the jobs are bad so it pays to protect your portfolio
If these jobs somehow come in better we will explode higher
All the other macro data points to recovery

We are again at the base of the bull channel by my estimates on the chart
We have seen it dip slightly below this mpoint and bounce nearly to the top but a half point breech and close and we are headed points lower according to the technical indicators
as you know I make them prove it when a trend is established I should have had two round trips off 68 already but I did not cash out at 68.5/68.6 so I am not covered in case of a stop out here and I also don't like when they keep retesting eventually I feel they will get through we watch the buck and the futures it will need capitualation to crack this here

overnight

like I said earlier the technically in il we are in the bull channel at 68 we create a sub bearish
run to maybe 65-66 the dollar is in a struggle
there is a new hurricane erica off the leeward isle moving north west too soon to tell where it might land
We bought one at 68.12 we have a tight stop missed the sale at 68.65 we3nt all the way back down in my face we may even get stopped here

api

I am hearing 1.6 draw from the api I did not get the whole breakdown oil has jumped up to 68.5 up 40 cents i have a sale at 69.12 up apoint on the 68.12 buy hope we get it

WEdnesday ECO-data

Do we have to get behind the news here is the line up last night the global news helped oil get up around 70 and initially the good news got us up past 71.37 we as you know were stopped out at 70.5 as we were caught a little off guard that the good news which we predicted would be perceived
as a threat to the QE. Way premature imho the strong greenback kept us and hopefully you as well careful -all my postings today were several minutes ahead of price entries all should have had no problem taking profits if you just did as i did in Oil
Rimm saves an otherwise sad day for the portfolio as my longterm hold lost quite a bit of value
citibank and Ford amongst them

:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.60% 0.40% 01:30 AUD GDP Y/Y Q2 0.70% 0.40% 08:30 GBP PMI Construction Aug 48 47 09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.10% -0.10% 09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q2 P -4.70% -4.60% 09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jul -0.80% 0.30% 09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jul -8.50% -6.60% 11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Aug -- -5.70% 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Aug -250K -371K 12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q2 F 6.20% 6.40% 12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q2 F -5.50% -5.80% 14:00 USD Factory Orders Jul 1.80% 0.40% 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.5M 0.2M 18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes -- --

For us the EIa last week the EIa was a relative non-event but it did help us frame a trading range looking for a draw of .5 but the draw would have to match the API in order to be considered bullish with a strong dollar and weak market the EIa would have to be that much more bullish to create a run -if they were bullish Oil could turn the dollar and the market itself

market down 200

10 minutes and they are pasting the market on the close

I have switched out some longs and made them calls and further out of the moneys to offset the premium outlay after expiration I retake my long after the scare is over

APi it has been said

we of course are using a tight stop if the APi turns out negative we will blow through lower

i am betting on a good api but will sell at 69.125 if we get a good number

35 minutes to go in regular trade down 172 oil fighting at 68.20 area 36 minutes or so to the api

we have some associations that will get us the number hopefully near the release

This number will need to be dissected than it sets up as usual as a comparison to the EIA roughly 10 Wednesday

To the newer traders

The QM may be a good alternative to the cl for newer traders there is definitely less bang for the buck but it is also far less stressful and you can start to learn how to wait out trades and let them develop as opposed to panic when you are up 20 cents once you can do it with QM move over to the cl

Technicians talk

They are calling 68 as the major support most charts I read shoed the ema violated at 69
but 68 is big as well as a support line we touched down at 68 and we bought at 68.12
we shall see the API rumor is there will be draw we could get a run just about 4'oclock
or so looks like they were able to keep it a secret this week at least.

nymex closes on the low

Continued bearish pressure as the nymex close on the low
has us redrawing our chart 69.15 was a critical tech spot once violated
we stop trading oil until the overnight

oil 68.75

We lock min another 50 cents but move entry to 68.25 we have been successful finding the support buy bounce sell move entry lower with the trend so negative you can be very pricey from the buy side conversely it is your choice you could target the the swing highs as sell entries and buy back near my entry target either strategy would work it will be difficult to reverse as I am tending several positions performing battlefield triage on many of my wounded soldiers

Oil proves that it is range bound still and is not quite ready to switch brackets

Friday is being calculated as a bad employment number the market has now sold off in advance

call buying below the 1000 mark in the s+P makes sense as a shot

The upside move will be violent if it surprises I would protect and have but it makes sense to put a lottery ticket in place the returns will be huge

Can you believe October natural gas 2.82 that is alow number the extended spread in November shows that consensus believes this is a very short term scenario

we look to buy 2.75 on the contract the trend of dip to new lows and pop 10-20 cents continues

The dollar was the clue

Before the 11 am sell off we posted to move oil stop up and reasoned the strong dollar

was behind the move If Oil is a leading indicator the dollar is king it tips off the flight to safety

Sentiment is non constructive we jump off the wall of worry

There were a lot more aggresive

we now believe in industrials again

good news bad news

The good ISM and F earnings and Homes sales and auto sales are met with an underlying fear that the QE will be pulled back

This causes a sell off in the financial with the market close behind at least this makes sense to me

Sometimes you really need to analyze the analysis

We told you to sell this intra-day not end of day I took a big hit and I was fairly aggresive with the sell button

If they pull the QE it definitely changes the formulaic way banks have been raking it in

but it is probably too early Bernanke knows this

This sell off alone will cause extreme caution so I think this sell off should be bought

I was very busy selling and my position is unwieldy But I may take back the rimm i sold

the market sells off hard

We lightened considerably bought the bgz as protection while the market was up took profits where we could picked up a point plus in one oil trade and still today is an ugly day for me

I guess I needed a little more of the 3x short etf to truly balance what has become a monolithic position since the plan of fronting an equity account by trading oil to offset down days this depicts the fact that we either pare down the portfolio or start trading 2 contracts which I am not prepared to do yet

oil runs past 71

this one was childs play oil above 71 on our but at 69.6

gas traders are watching the weather if we get another push we sell the jcg

we have an offer at 35.5

X we had you buy at 43.55 take the point as I said a trade

dx

Time for the second stop adjustment to 70.5 locking in $900

the strong dollar making me uneasy disciplined profit protection

first stop adjust ment

if you bought with me last night at 69.6 move stop now to 70 if ism is bad we lock in $400

if good we run with it

20 minutes to

Click donate below for a one hour phone consultation
and drop an email chrgr06@yahoo.com to schedule

Friday

The vix shows we are looking at some volatility most are preparing for the worst if the jobs surprise positively there will be some wild covering this market is already position lowered

macro data has been discounted t

the pros are back it is September really look for everyone 9/05/09

but this market especially Friday will kick off the season

I am leaning towards

oil/natural gas

China went up shanghai popped by 6%

I guess we only react when the news is bad

dollar is strong so far chinese manufacturing data what is keeping oil at 70 for the moment
opec has a meeting set for Sept 9


Natural gas near term oct is 2.92
nove 3.9x over a point and december 4.7 jan 5.1
the super contango

ISM

The ism will be 50 Isn't that the whole point of the PMI

50 shows growth I do not know how they discount it

Car sales will be up -cash for clunkers or not they will be up for the first time in a while

the home sales might be the catalyst here 1.5 they are looking for we hope they exceed all these numbers we believe we will be up 4% at some point today

ISM api later

We get the ISM at 10 AM and the API comes out around 4 so if you see it start to move at that time or sooner for know apparent reason remember just last week 4 points on the API leak
The ISM need to be better than 50 now or we might sell a number above 50 does indeed point to the recovery and provide evidence that we are headed in the right direction
If we get a rally later I will buy some protection so I can participate in the next pullback which seems destined and IMHO will indeed be a buy

weather report

I know I have been getting sucked in to these hurricanes Bill and DAnny do nothing for Natural Gas-It pays to keep an eye on the tropical depression it will take a couple days to form

but it might and if it does it is right where it need to be square in the gulf of mexico if it

became a storm it would drive gas and oil higher

we got long on the reopen and after all the trading we are switching back to position we hope the german data is a strong as we suspect lead us in on the right foot into the Us data

Turnaround Tuesday I will sell the position after two stop adjutsments but before Tuesday afternoon which brings us back to the API you know the drill and WEd the EIA

overnight action

We start off with an interest rate decision out of Australia the high yield currency may be buoyed and a rally in the AUd is bearish for the greenback which is bullish for Oil
We have all kinds of german data later from retail to manu data it is likely to be positive
The amount of sway the asian markets hold over our markets considering the relative neophyte state and that we do have institutional exposure to my knowledge seems way over the top
even though the Chinese for the most part got the credit for the drop(now I truly know what it means to be shanghqai'd)to me this sell off had more to do with Friday jobs and the ridiculous September axiom and the overall sentiment by most that we have come too far too fast
I say if you get good news go up today the threat of bad news had more power than actual macrodata there is another axiom about a market that does not go up on good news must be...
The bear pattern that we spotted this morning had uncanny results as we found the support spots where we could buy bounce sell reset lower repeat
Trading went very well I took a hit on the Immu and sold it for a loss after the bell on the stock sale news -when a company sells its own stock to raise cash there is no doubt in my mind that I will get another shot lower there was other bearish news out on the sector to go with the poor market.
ERF looks good at 21 now with 18 cents return makes even more sense over the UNG you guys
have barely chimed in on this one makes me wonder if you decided that I missed the boat on the analysis since I berated it the fund is down over a dollar I took a quarter loss way better than a point and a half sometimes you have to cut the bait.

Tuesday eco-data

We laid it out for you in yesterady's post the overnight trader's need to keep an eye on the global data too -i like the chances of a 2 am rally after the german data comes out

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 04:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 3.00% 3.00% 05:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q2 -0.70% -0.80% 05:45 CHF GDP Y/Y Q2 -2.80% -2.40% 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.60% -1.80% 07:30 CHF SVME-PMI Aug 46.7 44.3 07:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Aug F 49 49 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Aug 30K -6K 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Aug 8.40% 8.30% 08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Aug F 47.9 47.9 08:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Aug 51.5 50.8 09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jul 9.50% 9.40% 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Aug 50.1 48.9 14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Aug 57 55 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jul 1.60% 3.60% 14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jul -0.20% 0.30%

15 minutes to go in the day-geo-politics

there is a geo-political situation developing between the US Iran and Israel which has to reconciled anon. If this does not get resolved in the not too distant future I am checking the deadline another spike is imminent. I think we will get a push tomorrow as the market responds to data which I believe will be positive and will at last be received and acted upon properly.

It may take a while but the rally should be used to make positions manageable Friday will continue to loom probably by late afternoon Tuesday

x

this sell off was bogus x was a steal at 43.55 now still a buy at43.75

oil is closed

70 roughly ends the 2:30 the session as we saunter into the extended trade prior to the break

oil drifts now as the market slowly turns from down 100 to down 77

I know we gave you 70 initially as a buy in but it was great trading spot as it bounced 4 times before cracking I reposted by email and blog prior to the break of 70 adjusting down

this though an ugly day for the overall market was a strong trading day 3 trips off 70 alone would have made for a nice day but we pulled off more than that only one loser on the day

locking in a loss of 20 cents not bad against wins of 40-70-20-30-70-50 not in that order