kiev-the showdown from the head clowns-can't pass gas

yushenko-vs-tymoshenko- this one is interesting most people believe oil will range 35-45

for months to come but you may see 50 pretty son if this rivalry gets out of control

if gas goes so will oil- there was a raid on the prominent gas company that brokered the distribution deal from Russia and word is Masked gunmen on political orders are attempting to seize that important document which could halt the deal- We are gonna keep an eye out for this one along with all the bullish elements oil id its run up and down but was up late and pulled the 

market  along with it-the tail now wagging the dog-it seems strange to buy at the top of a range 

and we will give a final pre-call sunday night 

weekend wrap

oil defied the market today and actually traded as high as 46.30 for the april contract

prior to settling down at 35.60 in extended trading the official market close was 35.52

opec-weak dollar-talk of fewer tankers-talk of supply crunch all contributed to the new high

we gave some good advice but unfortunately missed our targeted buy at 44.03 only to watch it run-well at least we are long here-many traders say the sp rules oil but i say it only influences 

today should prove to all that there are just too many factors for oil to have just one master

a down market monday will probably hold it back a little yet did not seem to be able today

never a straight line but the way is clear to 36.90 

friday morning fog

still see support at 44- but today is unclear

NFP the most swaying number will be out in one hour the chart makes cases again

for both directions smack in the middle of this distorted buy channel

and reaction has been unpredictable to the most affective stats in the show

sorry but today it would probably be wise to get a front row seat  but not to act

the show will go on but today is a surprise ending

looks like we are going up

resistance chart wise was 44 if futures hold up and somehow i think they will glide higher 

until am i expect to open my eyes to a 45ish price

oilchange

every 5000 miles or in this case every 5%

pundits shout 30 fro oil onj down days and 60-70 after each significant move up

well  a new johnny come lately survey says oil"may" go higher as opec cuts are taking 

hold on inventories-thing is these cuts only mean there is more oil in the ground instead of at refineries so in essence the supply decline can only last so long in the meantime i guess keep an eye up short term as the sheep will probably follow tommorow

this time we wait

i personally have just sold but will probably just take a small profit because to me the market went down so far again today and they must have factored the worst jobs possible and that is part of why we sold so hard again which leaves tommorow without a reason to down or worse if the new is better than expected pop up hard if you are playing from the short side-more data must unveil itself so for the first time in twenty one blogs i advise neutrality

time to check in

wallmart dividend and better than expected jobless took edge off selling but main reason for yesterdays rally was removed china said no new stimulus oil wennt 45.75

to 43.60 when walmart news ruined the bear market festivities still we say sell 44.75

buy 44 unless it breaks hard leg in from short side today fro that reason

overnight action

exciting times and as you know w have switched gears again

44.20 when eyes were opened and futures were down 102

we expect a larger decline so dont cover the short just yet

if anybody is listening they are getting paid 20 straight

my research is thorough but this is much than formulaic 

i told you to buy and hope you did this morning and have given twenty sytraight

successful handicaps oil numbers down 767 bulllish it was like they are already knew

45 already now im looking to just sell flat but probably gonna go short up a point at 46

inventory-like pouring gas on an open flame

eia report due again and if you get a dip in inventory look out

i have been talking bullish all morning and i am looking to jump on at the right price but if the inventory comes out and it shows less oil it should take off so take heed

by the way

nearly forgot we are gonna take two hits today so price is important mortgage is already out unemloyment next both are bad but discounted so buy into the weakness but at the right price u may get low to mid 42's then up

next stop northpople

we see the chinese stimulus has trumped all other economic data for the moment and everyone on the east coast has been shaken awake by 1.75 gain things happen almost every night just like this - we say be careful but even though it's up oil probably will test 45 today so buy and then sell

even though we are already up we warned last night a vicious upside might be looming so 

we would not want to stand on the tracks in front of a train moving north rather we jump on the back and ride a couple stops-maybe we will see santa

tuesday night twofers

scalping actually possible as oil tracks dow futures looks like trading range for now 41-41.5 lead from the buy side i kno we said tpo sell but yuou made a half and things change cover and buy 1

if dow futures really pick up currently  up 19 we are due for a vicious up day very soon so 

you may not even have to sell for the 1/2

tuesday two step

laid out almost exactly as scripted if you don't count that hefake down to 39.6 i know it was gut wrenching but i bought there and hope you did as well we pinned it as crucial buy point pivot spot

ofcourse it takes plenty of spine to trade oil and always we recommend stops if a strategy does not work out as planned if you have been following you are getting to the area where you can afford a point before panic sets in-we are considering selling here on he overnight oil did not make much of it's 10% back here but chart wise 

it looks a bit unsteady

oil never sleeps

if you are following my posts i am giving out some diamonds here oil has bounced nicely and i will probably go to sleep long tonight just like we hit the sheets short last night

thing about oil is u have to trade the overnight unless u dont care about one point moves which invariably occur each night trick is to believe in yourself and stop watching indicators and doing research long enough to catch a few zzz and hopefully your hard work is rewarded in the morning 

with the appropriate deviation you have charted

it takes a steady hand to pull the trigger

and a strong stomach to hang on-people are actually talking about depression now 

i don't believe it but just the thought alone could put the brakes on oil futureswe stay long the near term contract here but hold our breath and attempt to resist pushing the panic button

blame the option folks for painting a two year recession scenario pushing up the price of volatility insurance-funny thing is just yesterday people were talking 50-70 on oil

the options boys are  in panic along with everyone else- all is out of whack 

as babies are thrown out with bath water-steady as she goes but stop yourself out down half a point because  fear can drive down the price more than common sense can place it at fair value

all aboard the crazy train

my chart says oil  held here and is a buy right now

i know it doesn't even seem sane coming out of my mouth

but this is a critical area and if it holds oil is a trough of a buy channel

if doesnt my next area is 37 then 33 but i am personally buying right here 

we told you to sell yesterday and that is much easier to do these days 

remember opec is meeting 3/15/09 and they are talking cuts and have sustained all previous ones

sentiment changes like the wind and you need to be one step ahead even in this funhouse.

chart uncanny

it showed us the turnaround  let us know a precipitous downward slide was imminent

it is a little overdone for the day as 10% seems closer to a panic than reality

however if you get a lift maybe to 41.5-42 i would sell again because this downrtrend is likely to continue for days to come-strong dollar AIG GDP manufacturing shrink the hits keep coming

so much for gasoline support-you cant keep oil down forever and back the truck and load up if in the next few days you see 33

detail details

futures have shifted to down 13o so shift your scalping accordingly now sell above 42.55

buy below 42.35  adjust as they do at present don't worry i'm not like some writers that will just leave you hanging-scenarios change and guidance is key i will keep u posted

if you have the stomach you might as well eat

With the futures ranging down 150-140 there are many nickels and dimes to be extracted from the oil futures so if you are just sitting there watching you could actually be doing something productive like making money-so stay with me as long as the future stay in this range buy below 42.20 sell above 42.40 for now let's see how many flips we could do i am up to 6 and i just started

it's gripping and nerve wracking but it really adds up

now let's urn it up a notch

if you listened friends as we see morning unveil a price of 42.38 but I hope you are not complaining about my call to cover at 42.75 we have guided you correctly through a 4% correctio in near term oil prices-most days usually one where the futures are down 147 by 645 am

you will see a 6% correction so two more points before i green light going fully long and we may reassess the next day view as oil stays in trends for days at a stretch so far so good 

spend it wisely!

new thinking$$$$$

ok we said sell on the open could have gotten 44.35 without a problem then we weighed gasoline demand and thought a cover was in order still it dropped to 43.80 that is 550 bucks for each contract u sold-now we think lean on the sell stick sorry bout the three dollars commission but

unemployment numbers are just gonna weigh this one down- sell again here at 43.75

cover down at 42.75 for an extra thou a contract

Dr. Chartenstein

it is alive-the technicals seem to be evolving before my very eyes taking on almost a life of their own-but sentiment has flipped back to the bear claws because of Warren Buffet's Conoco lamentations and tale of woe of the two year recession- listen you are gonna have to buy oil st some point 

China looks to be coming out of recession first and may lead the way and we know how they love consumption especially when it comes to oil-

tonight the future tomorrow the past

the near term contract will be mostly moved by the sp and dow futures movement 

but by morning gasoline and the strong dollar will have its say scalp tonight and maybe we think about going long at the right price

stay loose

it can be tricky the dow futures and the crushing of the asian markets are keeping the pressure on oil we said sell the opening -that was an easy half but there are so many conflicting cases one must proceed with trepidation i said cover not go long just yet

don't believe the hype

these guys turn on a swivel it's all about sentiment

yeah crude looks like it may go to 50 but not till may

you are already up 500 if you sold a contract cover it now

we may be headed north

sunday night trading

Don"t wait until monday at 9 am to position youirselves short in the near term oil contract

Manufacturing is down and the full effect of the GE divedend cut has not been felt by the markets 

wrath-further technically speaking we have broken the bull market short term 12 point move 

long term still bullish but stay short and get short tonight!