What is real and what is manufactured?

When the NFP came out exactly as expected somehow you just knew Oil and the market were done for and we were headed for a collapse.

With the off day Globex closed down to 65.63 and the talk is flight to safety and manipulation is apparent here. Russia has joined the Chinese chorus that the USD should no longer be the reserve currency. That would muddle the pricing models and how we determine the cost of Oil as was demonstrated by the divergence between the dollar and Oil  when the topic was tossed around earlier in the week.

 So what is real?

 One thing for sure is This country is addicted to  Oil and uses more than any  other.

Has America suddenly kicked the habit? There is very little evidence to support that.

What else do we have? Since the break out of the 47-54 range Oil has mostly gone north 

Goldman came out with its $85 when oil was around $70. Now it has pulled back and this week  ahead could turn out  to be bargain hunting season I am no longer scalping as last week move back to positioning proved more profitable with less stress as Once in front of a trade Oil made short work of three points a clip. Catch two of those and you have yourself a week there.

Even though I saw Oil collapsing I did not partake on the last retreat coping with system issues and personal errands but there is no doubt an easy score was missed I targeted 66 it closed at 66.5 that day. The overnight saw Oil climb up to 67.18 and close down to 65.63. 

  Earnings week kicks off with the aluminum giant Alcoa as soon as some companies drift by the tape with some acceptable numbers we should stabilize again. 

The Joblessness was expected I even heard higher estimations and the sentiment is undoubtably negative here It would be smart to wait for the turn before buying but it wont be that long things are not as they seem

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I should sell but I bought

we have currencies on deck with another g-8 coming up next week we buy one time half point stop If we get stopped we play our dow side figure this was our` original call and after the 

next week we might be looking at this like the buy of the week. There is good news out of Australia and China and Hong Kong  and Japan right this second if those currencies could steady we will be a lot  higher there is also stagflation to think about 

We will take this one shot for a trade.  Newer members should sit this one out. especially if you have no profits I am playing with house money technically this is still a sell

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on closer examination this consolidation appears to have more to it

If the weakness continues technically 62 is a possibility and I do not expect Alcoa 

to come out of the so we may have a couple points left to the downside. There is more spec than tech in this creature and more sentiment than speculation. I am flat and I am going to wait before I commit it feels like we are definitely in some new waters here When I sent out my 66 buy rec I thought we had a chance

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Computer issues have a tissue

I  am upset that I was unable to sell when I felt the NFP was ugly and was foreshadowed by the ADP and More so I could feel they were looking for a reason to crash it and many wanted to close out positions for this weekend.

  After the week I had though you might say to me "computer issue here is a tissue!"

It's the usual suspects raining the usual bad news storm after a really bad day. They crash it and after they talk like the world is now about to go up in flames- Lets see what is on tap data wise next week because earnings is what drives a traditional market unfortunately Alcoa kicks it off the show and that is not the upbeat song I would want my band to open its concert with. There will be some good surprises so lets check the line up. When a market leader puts up a good number and its off to the sentiment race again I guess Im looking at a shake out monday morning there are too many positives we are not where we were in march maybe we were overbought

now we are in line now we can look for  value now you need someone like me to help you get into the right issues. throw a dart here and you may just hit the barmaid.

   Oil poses an interesting set up as we said 66 Is our buy in right now unless something drastic 

we hope to get our kicks going long at "66"

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I had computer probs all day I hope eveyone got the gist that I wad bearish by my 66 buy rec

The jobs look bad oil looks worse we have drawn 66 if you believe the head and shoulders tech pattern they are betting they are bad last night oil hung around 69.6 most of the night I have no position I will react to the non farm payroll and email them

Non farm payroll

NFL

Morning prices after MVP

Last day of the week-NFP

Technical patterns aside this has not proven anything to us yet other than the new range 

it likes to trade inside of  68.54-73.38 this week an several trips up and down 

It appears Production  from Opec was added and that helps with a puzzle piece but it still

I am a buyer on a dip  here tonight and a seller tomorrow the jobs are bad but this time they are very much expected they are projecting 9.7 that is a pessimistic number there is a chance the less bad news might make for a trade opp again  if you can get behind a trade and  the range trading feels far from over.

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Weekly Results

 

Accentuate the Negative

The EIA had numbers we have been used too draw in Oil and bulge in gasoline etc.

The ADP forbodes a bad NFP. ANd there has ben talk that the Nigerian groud Mend 

is part of a hoax used to drive oil prices up- If that is true which I have no idea a few more dolars are coming out of this I sidestepped the free-fall an emailed everyone that I percieve the news badly- but I did not sell. The divergence between the S+P and currencies and Oil is definitely disconcerting. Technically speaking the so-called head and shoulders pattern has reared it's ugly neck at the 69 level which would also suggest a price of 66 or so here.

THe nfp is expected to be 9.7 % the worst we have seen. 15 minutes left in the session

Im selling at the neck line I have a feeling more news will unfold and this will all make sense soon.

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manufact and adp

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manufact and adp

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Position Trading Yielding Fruit

The move to position trading

does not include a loss in discipline 

despite the results we are long from 69.13   we sold it last night at 70.54

and bought back at 70.30 (I realy did not count that as selling the long)the stop is at 70.5 here . we are thinking  a return to 73 area but if theinventory numbers surprise we still bank something

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You guys no my position

this column is trying to get others into profitability you guys know I went long  yesterday a long time ago and remain long- there were sevral chances to buy ion at 70.3 area now it is 71.10. If inventories are  not all they are hoping for it should come in -I am moving my stop up gain to protect another 

half. 

 Futurues are up -Im planning to sell back i the high 72 area. 

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If you missed the in

I ma not suggesting that anyone buy at 70.6 if you missed the buy in you need to be patient 

you probably could even sell but Im not suggesting that either as long as the picture is similar

currencies and futures and current eco news we should get some up and down on psychology swings betting on the numbers if you get a nice enough dip and everything seems  close buy in

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Position trading

I resort to scalping when my analysis Is off I have been on and hope my members have pulled in some nice money I wont say these were no brainers but after 68.5 to 73.38 to 68.90 and back to 70.60 there has been a rhythm to the pendulum what makes us more ecstatic is the lack of stress. When scalping even agood one you get that tightness and worry each an every trade

and there is always the threat of a gap which can steal hours of trading from you in one fell swoop. The opportunities to trade this range have started on the overnight when things go well like this the overnight is always the key to the big score. I am now using  half point stops the rest of the week after getting stopped twice early monday night before getting it right a quarter

is just too tight this is an animal and because of the increased volatility  our entries have been 

more difficult to land within .25 cents also if you lock a couple losses in a row you might get thrown off balance and watch it pass you whipsaw you and essentially make you experience all the negative horrible emotions that are  the spectrum of pain when things are not in sync.

There has been a fair amount of luck here but the data has been telegraphed as well and the charts have also ben quite telling although I begrudge giving them any credit as My technical analysis guy and I are no longer seeing eye to eye.

  So Im  long and got long around mid to late afternoon and even I am surprised at the pop here are inventories not so bad the futures are down on the outset Im ahead I move my stop past even to lock in a half which should still keep me safe from being stopped out while I take my home run swing

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To me the trading range is in

I bought at 69.13 I am using a halfpoint stop if it breaks that point it breaks the range conversely Im a seller above 72.5  I was short today from last night 72.75

rebought at 71 sold at 71.5 rebought at 69.5 and went long here at 69.13 

i will hold until tomorrow so far position trading with less stress puttinh up huge numbers i invite all my members to join I will post my P+l for the week which is over 6 K not the month

just making these nice swings  It is a lot less stressful  than scalping I am glad to get a break it allows you to trade multiple vehicles this way.

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We got a little range

Selling at 71.5x  

69.9x

We repositioned from the sell side we told you we were looking to re-enter at a better price we waited for the turn and jumped back on this can be traded Im done for day between the tow overnights we are good again for the week everyone had the same chance last night!

Leg in from sell side first and do not sell if market is screaming up is ok not through the roof

though

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Natty and Crude

I am buyer if Natty Dips into the 3.6 area 

I covered my overnight short at 71 ironically the sense is still bearish many Nigerian Mend militants have turned themselves in for amnesty but somehow attacks on the Royal Dutch Pipeline persist. The overall market does not seem as if it ready to collapse and now the dog may indeed wag the tail. Still bearish for the time being but cautious looking for a better in.

We are nearly in vacation mode after the NFP you should be able to hear a pin drop on the exchange floors until next weak. One play left the Jobs 

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Just trade

The lofty heights of 73.38 were alas not to be seen again we have moved away from scalping to position trading and we were reminded of the double top by another member Ended up selling as you can see illustrated at 72.75 and we have our stop in place to protect a quarter and we shall see how we do. the talk I hearing is expecting a good NFP which is due early 

and If it is not all its cracked up to be the rug just may get pulled.  We are simply trading 

It ran up and we sold If we get stopped we will re-examine and decide. 

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geopolitical risk

 I had you buy last night at 68.5  check the post 

I have been wrong but I will own up to it and write the next move and never ever leave my readers hanging.

Compared to Technical analysis here  this news will undoubtably write a new pattern  that will help the sooth sayer will give you the "magic eightball" treatment and right now  forget that self -righteous "Cotts Guy " who just told u to sell at 71 .xx tell me that wasn't  a stop out maybe not for him but his readers.(he is a good technician just a tad sensitive all the same)

  I told you about this Nigerian situation- I told you they would not take amnesty that "more of the same" was why they were fighting to begin with.   I told you these guys mean business

and it is only 10:00PMKand oil is close to anew high breaking 73.38 wow. How is your technical analysis treating you now! Fundamentals are the hammer to the forehead and here is one square on  the kisser until  we either hear what is going on over there be very careful shorting.  I have already picked up a half taking a quick ride between 72.5 and 73 that is dangerous too and would not recommend it either.

Sidelines here kiddos too many unknowns this is a dangerous one.  The currencies are in step here as the Kiwi  and other high-yielder are poised to break out further.

Obviously the instinct is to counter trend and sell but we better find out what the deal is over there first because this baby could make today look liker an uptick if they start to do anymore serious damage -they have a serious force and the pipeline is virtually indefensible based on its sheer enormity. If oil keeps going north the implications on the market will be far reaching from the metals to the dow

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overnighht action extremely exhausted

As you may have noticed I am psotion trading as opposed to scalping I took a long position from 68.5 and should have rode it highere but dumped at 71.5 With CL aug at 71.87 n to position in Looking to position in from the sell side unless these currencies which are now back as a factor conviince me to flip as always for overnights I will try to enter on an extreme and stop protect at even.

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As reported Earlier

Last night we bought not once but three  times which I guess Is really a charm 

Somebody asked me if they should buy  at the same price I put a buy in with a caveat 

that as long as the dow wasn't down big 68.xx  was a buy I certainly bought there 

two stops outs for a loss of $500 but as you can see at  71 $2500 makes it all better. It was as low as  68.75 before 7 this morning but I bought last night. I am selling here

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worst appears over

This 60 minute chart shows where we left off after two  stops out buys between 69 and 68.75 and so sure we were right we bought with a stop much lower at 68.5 and went to bed

currently it i s69.65 so all is well as oil production increases and nigerian crude "cut backs" look to scale to the Rebels .

  Oil has diverged from its trusty indicator the  dollar  leaving us searching elsewhere for direction. I remain long at 68.5 with a stop adjusted to  plus a quarter moved just this morning 

oil seemd to be tracking the futures more than anything else at this second

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the Wek ahead

Just had my fingers burnt making a couple attempts from the buy side at 69

68.75 and now 6.5. there is a vacation week-The NFP is back on Thursday they are expectimg -355.000.

there will be very strange marks as people get their balance sheet lined up for end of quarter

Cars sales are also out this week there is some talk 

Hedge funds are calling to hedge oil pushing oil

there is a real worry for future supply but for now there seems to be an abate in that concern

We may wait until morning to put our position

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Sunday Overnight

Major league divergence between the dollar and has inventories and energy talking about the long overdue correction  No Sunday Play but we may sell with a stop adjust and see where she open come the morning

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