Tuesday, September 1, 2009

I have been using esignal

Esignal does not export their chart that easily but I have been looking closely at this one
We are now at the crossroads we are hearing all sorts of I told you's from the analysts who have ben proclaiming this sell off since the last correction in June
We have heard from countless sources the reasons for the sell off
overbought-china- too far too fast-unemployment-end of the QE
That to me is the last two I may be willing to buy into as we know the market has been propped up by the fed printing press and there will be a time that ben must pull back he won't do it
just because the ism finally turned positive making a strong case for a v shaped recovery
he ust got done with a meeting where he pointed out the mistake of the last fed chairman who presided over an economic catastrophe did just that pulled the QE too soon.
He will lose credibility if he does the opposite of what he just proclaimed
SO if the sell off is base on the end of the QE we are jumping the gun seriously
The last one is the scary one the jobs are bad you can see it in the world we live in people are out of work and it will be the last thing to get fixed so to all these people it will seem like a recession
no matter what the ism and GDP report
They will crush the market a little more if the jobs are bad so it pays to protect your portfolio
If these jobs somehow come in better we will explode higher
All the other macro data points to recovery

We are again at the base of the bull channel by my estimates on the chart
We have seen it dip slightly below this mpoint and bounce nearly to the top but a half point breech and close and we are headed points lower according to the technical indicators
as you know I make them prove it when a trend is established I should have had two round trips off 68 already but I did not cash out at 68.5/68.6 so I am not covered in case of a stop out here and I also don't like when they keep retesting eventually I feel they will get through we watch the buck and the futures it will need capitualation to crack this here