Tuesday, August 25, 2009

EIA

It is wednesday tomorrow or as oilitradinginsider subscribers like to call it the recurring birthday durable and new homes could move the markets but Inventories matter most on Wednesday we have had several weeks of interpretable data followed by a dramatic move in the oil futures after the news has been fully digested the usual scenario is

news reaction in oil up to 2 points sometimes return back to maybe a half point away and ultimately a substantial move in the direction that the inventories pointed to initially
so If you are confused at first you typically get a second chance to get in
keep in mind the data of the day as well if you get good durable goods good new homes sales
and a bullish inventory number hypothetically the run will be that much faster that much further so we will have all the other number the feel of the over all market and the then the EIA
they are currently looking for -2.1 draw the expected number has to do more than be better than expected it has to compete with he API and the import line must be paid attention to as well they are expecting that that week's number was an anomaly and will reverse
the feel right now is negative the last trade is 71.75 again we are close to trying another scalp as it looks good on the stochastic and we are early in the overnight session we will take 20-50 cents per trade if possible tonight go to sleep flat and play the inventory
all week long we expected this not breach the trading range but we got a little too defensive





GMTCcyEventsActualConsensusPreviousRevised
23:50JPYTrade Balance (JPY) Jul0.35T0.44T
23:50JPYCSPI Y/Y Jul-3.40%-3.20%
06:00EURGerman Import Price Index M/M Jul-0.80%0.40%
06:00EURGerman Import Price Index Y/Y Jul-12.50%-11.30%
08:00EURGerman IFO - Business Climate Aug88.987.3
12:30USDDurable Goods Orders Jul3.30%-2.50%
12:30USDDurables Ex Trans Jul1.00%1.10%
14:00USDNew Home Sales Jul390K384K
14:30USDCrude Oil In