Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Natty and X

Im hearing from some very smart people that the rally in Natty is over.
That is a pretty dumb comment we might get a pullback and I hope we do
because I didnt wring enough money out of this run
But I will say this You will not get rich betting against the likes of Goldman Sachs
There is stil an inventory issue it ran last week on a substantial build that happened to be better than expected so maybe we get a pullback and that should be bought


I am catching a ltlle falck from some members that sold X at 47.xx with me today
but If read the advice carefully it was sell if you were long and I advised buying the sept 45
line the day before at 1.10 it was like .40 over par and right at the strike and low risk way
to get bang for the buck buying the Big Steel. US steel broke through the trading range today and I wish I had held it all untilo 49.98 or so where its acme was but Still a pretty good trade
and if steel comes back down maybe make some money if it goes the other way
plus I also said to ratio buy 3 calls to every 200 shares of stock I still left so0me upside on the play. The steel proces dropping 8% were cast asunder versus Bernanke declaration of the end of the recession coupled with the strong ppi and retail sales.

The retail number even with autos out was still fairly remarkable -There is real hard data
that the recession is over- We will suffer moguls and how they are gonna get out of this inflation
trap is gonna be interesting but the recession is over nothing lasts forever except perhaps the cycles of the economy in themselves.

The third quarter sets up to be big we are killi this month just like last after that early stumble as most of these guys keep telling you to wait to get in. "Fundamentals do not justify prices" are you guys serious with that? How many point s are you guys gonna wait until; you get in? Please let me know when they finally buy because it will probably be a sale then.
I try to turn it off because a guy like Joseph Stiglitz will tell you tales of eco-horror that he writes within the walls of his giant house between bites of porterhouse and since we know how smart he is we sometimes even listen. The truth and even Alan Greenspan was big enough to admit this that this trades in the future there are too many variable where a slight adjustment
changes valuation so drastically to truly know the fuindamentals we are all working on best guess. I personally stand back and see that despite the rally from march we are long way from where we were and we will return and pass those levels it is just a matter of time. Recessions
as well as growth do not last forever it is all part of the cycle.