Wednesday, June 3, 2009

After the Apocalypse-Recap


This was a tough one to swallow- We finally turned bearish yesterday  and drew up an amazing game plan last night and here is where we went wrong at Midnight or so We see the currencies and got head faked never mind that was 8 straight days or so without respite we were even tempted to buy thinking the late rally might be a pre-cursor to a bullish EIA 
which occured two weeks running.  We left out Offer at 69.05 and it traded as high as 68.95
10 lousy cents away and it all would have gone differently.
Back to the tape-Oil was trading around 67.75 and 68.25 and we grabbed an early $200
from the buy side and another $300 buying at 67.5 and selling at 67.8 this was probably a bad thing as somehow we started legging in exclusively from the buy side. We  warned the membership  we may have implications from  The EIA and the ADP numbers the former were just 
horrific with imports climbing which promised to add to the build which was already
in place.

  We traded remotely on a EIA day thinking somebody would have asked us if the numbers were that bad but strangely no emails to that end and we proceeded with our pre-determined entries at 67.25 and 66.80 both of which got stopped out dragging us down to even so fast it would make your head spin.
Here is where the action went frenetic we got back to the war room and re-drew the chart
and it looked to us like we would get one more push down as we missed the short term 65.5bid   bottom. Certain that we were at the end of this scene from Revelations we had at 65.25 stopped out we double down buying with a market order finally nailing the bottom.
Here is where fate intervened it dangled between 65.10- and 65.35 but rather than take the 
$300 or so and get back to even we stop adjusted to break even and went to a late lunch with our better half -We probably would have taken profits sooner but it was all the way back to $66.20 when we got back to the War room. We make a cool thousand reversing loss and bringing us over $700 for the day. Never trade remotely on an EIA day is the moral of the story.
Today could have been so much more as If we present for the numbers I am certain we would have sold seeing the unabashed bearishness implied added to a suspect ADP.
Bottom fishing has never been my favorite past-time we were lucky to survive this one.





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