Thursday, May 7, 2009

I'm not a contrarian the writing on the wall was written yesterday


The talking heads had everyone taking cover two days with the futures down that morning 
and went on and on about the end of the recession this morning when the market made it's head fake. We sold last night oil moved down we moved stop it turned and stopped us out even twice even but we still felt uneasy-we had already mad a nice profit with the 54.15 buy that we  dumped at 56.25- then came he break we scanned the chart and listened to those that give you yesterday's news a day late and a dollar short. This information is already priced in more often than not the non-savvy investor gets buried so many times buy CNBC and Bloomberg there should be a class action case against them.  Stay with us on this point they are not telling you what is going to happen they are telling you what has happened and with such vivacity that the new trader might run out and follow these ex post facto instructions. 
Our third entry point at 58.25 turned out to be the winner- Oil has a rep of being too dangerous and volatile for most investors but with the proper use of stops that restrict liability(we never risk more than $250 initially) and understanding  what is currently driving the pricing  at this moment. It is at least is far more predictable than most other investment choices. So since March 9th the plan is and remains trade oil take profits weekly and move them to secondary account and cherry pick stocks  to hold for the long term on substantial pullbacks. 
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